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MLS · Regular Season - 26 September 20, 2026 02:30
St. Louis City
#3 · 51 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Toronto FC
#11 · 36 pts
✓Model correct — prediction St. Louis City
C. Holse (ast. A. Matan) 41'
T. Totland (ast. A. Matan) 54'
S. Becher (ast. C. Wallem) 68'
90'+7 (ast. A. Coello) T. Corbeanu
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 72% win probability (draw 14%, Toronto FC 12%). The final result was St. Louis City 3–1 Toronto FC.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
4
8
Shots on target
2
2.54
Actual xG
1.08
1
Saves
5
61%
Possession
39%
8
Corners
4
8
Tackles
20
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
23'
W. Zimmerman
C. Wallem
28'
⚽C. Holse · ast. A. Matan
41'
↕ S. Jeong / S. Becher
46'
⚽T. Totland · ast. A. Matan
54'
57'
N. Gomis / W. Zimmerman ↕
63'
Z. Monlouis / D. Etienne ↕
63'
J. Osorio / N. Dorsch ↕
63'
T. Corbeanu / M. Cimermancic ↕
⚽S. Becher · ast. C. Wallem
68'
F. Fall
73'
74'
A. Coello
75'
L. Morgan / J. Sargent ↕
↕ C. Wallem / D. Polvara
78'
↕ A. Matan / D. Edelman
79'
↕ Rafael Navarro / D. Downs
85'
↕ C. Holse / T. Ostrak
90'+2
90'+7
ast. A. Coello · T. Corbeanu⚽
90'
Pre-match prediction
72.54%
St. ←
14.77%
X
12.69%
Toronto
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (St. Louis City) 72.54% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
St.
2.85
2.54
-0.31
Toronto
0.94
1.08
+0.14
St. Louis City dominated by xG (2.54 vs 1.08). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 31 55
2 FC Dallas FC Dallas 31 54
3 St. Louis City St. Louis City 31 51
4 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 31 48
5 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 31 48
6 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 32 47
7 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 31 43
8 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 31 42
9 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 32 41
10 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 31 39
11 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 31 37
12 San Diego San Diego 31 35
13 Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 31 35
14 Austin Austin 31 34
15 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 31 22
Lineups
St. Louis City St. Louis City 3-4-3
1 R. Bürki R. Bürki G 7.00
27 F. Fall F. Fall D 6.60
32 T. Baumgartl T. Baumgartl D 6.20
99 J. Orozco J. Orozco D 6.60
14 T. Totland T. Totland 1 ⚽ M 7.20
23 A. Mățan A. Mățan 2 👟 78' M 7.90
8 C. Durkin C. Durkin M 7.00
6 C. Wallem C. Wallem 1 👟 78' M 7.20
19 C. Holse C. Holse 1 ⚽ 89' F 9.90
9 Rafael Navarro Rafael Navarro 83' F 6.30
77 Jeong Sang-Bin Jeong Sang-Bin 45' F 6.20
Bench
39 B. Lundt B. Lundt G
42 D. Downs D. Downs 15' F 6.70
24 D. Edelman D. Edelman 12' M 6.30
21 D. Polvara D. Polvara 12' M 6.60
5 L. MacNaughton L. MacNaughton D
59 M. Joyner M. Joyner M
20 Rafael Santos Rafael Santos D
11 S. Becher S. Becher 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.30
7 T. Ostrák T. Ostrák 1' M
Toronto FC Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
1 L. Gavran L. Gavran G 7.90
3 Matheus Pereira Matheus Pereira D 7.20
13 B. Kuscevic B. Kuscevic D 6.30
25 W. Zimmerman W. Zimmerman 56' D 6.30
22 R. Laryea R. Laryea D 6.50
6 N. Dorsch N. Dorsch 62' M 6.90
14 Alonso Coello Alonso Coello 1 👟 M 7.50
20 D. Sallói D. Sallói M 6.30
71 M. Cimermancic M. Cimermancic 62' M 6.60
11 D. Etienne D. Etienne 63' M 6.70
9 J. Sargent J. Sargent 74' F 6.20
Bench
17 Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga F
38 J. Gilman J. Gilman D
21 J. Osorio J. Osorio 28' M 6.50
19 K. Franklin K. Franklin D
90 L. Morgan L. Morgan 16' F 6.90
15 N. Gomis N. Gomis 34' D 6.50
7 T. Corbeanu T. Corbeanu 1 ⚽ 28' F 7.30
23 W. Yarbrough W. Yarbrough G
12 Z. Monlouis Z. Monlouis 27' D 6.50
Best on the pitch
C. Holse
C. Holse
F · St.
9.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 40 pass
L. Gavran
L. Gavran
G · Toronto
7.90
· 30 pass
A. Mățan
A. Mățan
M · St.
7.90
2 👟
2 shots · 32 pass
Alonso Coello
Alonso Coello
M · Toronto
7.50
1 👟
1 shots · 41 pass
S. Becher
S. Becher
F · St.
7.30
1 ⚽
4 shots · 7 pass
T. Corbeanu
T. Corbeanu
F · Toronto
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 9 pass
St. Louis City St. Louis City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
R. Bürki G 90 7.00 — — — 32 28% — — —
F. Fall D 90 6.60 — — — 54 48% 1 1 —
T. Baumgartl D 90 6.20 — — 1 68 57% 1 — —
J. Orozco D 90 6.60 — — — 62 58% 1 — —
T. Totland M 90 7.20 1 — 1 30 25% — — —
A. Mățan M 78 7.90 — 2 2 32 27% 1 — —
C. Durkin M 90 7.00 — — — 45 41% 1 — —
C. Wallem M 78 7.20 — 1 — 33 25% — 1 —
C. Holse F 89 9.90 1 — 2 40 33% 2 — —
Rafael Navarro F 83 6.30 — — 1 20 14% 1 — —
Jeong Sang-Bin F 45 6.20 — — 1 16 10% — — —
D. Downs F 15 6.70 — — 1 4 4% — — —
D. Edelman M 12 6.30 — — — 10 10% — — —
D. Polvara M 12 6.60 — — — 16 13% — — —
S. Becher F 45 7.30 1 — 4 7 5% — — —
T. Ostrák M 1 — — — — 1 1% — — —
Toronto FC Toronto FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Gavran G 90 7.90 — — — 30 20% — — —
Matheus Pereira D 90 7.20 — — — 31 21% 4 — —
B. Kuscevic D 90 6.30 — — 1 27 23% 2 — —
W. Zimmerman D 56 6.30 — — — 17 12% — 1 —
R. Laryea D 90 6.50 — — — 23 17% 4 — —
N. Dorsch M 62 6.90 — — — 14 14% 2 — —
Alonso Coello M 90 7.50 — 1 1 41 34% 3 1 —
D. Sallói M 90 6.30 — — — 20 16% — — —
M. Cimermancic M 62 6.60 — — — 10 7% 1 — —
D. Etienne M 63 6.70 — — — 6 6% — — —
J. Sargent F 74 6.20 — — — 17 11% — — —
J. Osorio M 28 6.50 — — — 16 15% — — —
L. Morgan F 16 6.90 — — 1 3 2% — — —
N. Gomis D 34 6.50 — — — 14 12% 2 — —
T. Corbeanu F 28 7.30 1 — 1 9 7% — — —
Z. Monlouis D 27 6.50 — — — 16 12% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
The final score was St. Louis City 3–1 Toronto FC.
What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?
The model assigned 72% probability to a St. Louis City win, 14% to a draw, and 12% to an Toronto FC win.