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St. Lucia - Barbados

CONCACAF Nations League November 11, 2026 22:00
St. Lucia
vs
Barbados
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.64%
Win
St. Lucia
27.27%
Draw
36.09%
Win
Barbados
1.13
Expected xG
1.14

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (12.65%)
1X2 Result ✓ 83.3% hit rate (24 picks)
1 37%
X 27%
2 36%
Double Chance ✓ 95.8% hit rate (24 picks)
1X 64%
X2 63%
12 73%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 40%
✓ 71.4% hit rate (42 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives St. Lucia a 36% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Barbados. Expected goals are 1.1 for St. Lucia and 1.1 for Barbados (total 2.3), with a 70% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.65% probability. In 2 previous meetings, St. Lucia have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Barbados.

Season Stats

St. Lucia
3W 0D 1L
Barbados
3W 1D 0L
Averages per game
2.2
Goals
2.5
1.0
Conceded
1.0
3.8
Shots OT
5.3
3.8
Corners
4.5
47%
Poss.
54%
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
75%
25%
BTTS
75%
50%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in CONCACAF Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
75%
BTTS
St. Lucia
2W 0D 0L · at home
Barbados
1W 1D 0L · away
4.0
gls/g
2.0
1.0
Conceded
1.5
100%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
100%
50%
O 3.5
50%
50%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ St. Lucia Barbados →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.4% 11.8% 6.7% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2%
1 11.7% 13.3% 7.6% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
2 6.6% 7.5% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.5% 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% —
4 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% — —
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

St. Lucia St. Lucia
W Guadeloupe 0–1
W Guadeloupe 3–0
W Bermuda 5–2
L Barbados 2–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Barbados Barbados
W Bermuda 1–2
W Bermuda 4–1
D Guadeloupe 2–2
W St. Lucia 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

St. Lucia St. Lucia
Attack
40
Defence
61
Form
59
Barbados Barbados
Attack
54
Defence
68
Form
68
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
St. Lucia
0
Draw
1
Barbados
26 Sep 2026 CONCACAF Nations League 0–2
11 Jun 2025 World Cup - Qual. CONCACAF 2–1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win St. Lucia vs Barbados?
The model gives St. Lucia a 36% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 36% for an Barbados win.
How many goals are expected in St. Lucia vs Barbados?
Expected goals: St. Lucia 1.1, Barbados 1.1 (total 2.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 70%.
What is the most likely score in St. Lucia vs Barbados?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.65%.