Scottish Premiership
· Relegation Group - 36
May 09, 2026 16:00
(og)
9'
M. Freckleton
46'
(ast. G. Kiltie)
F. Curtis
68'
(ast. T. Lowery)
F. Curtis
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave ST Mirren a 42% win probability (draw 28%, Kilmarnock 28%). The final result was ST Mirren 0–3 Kilmarnock. In 3 previous meetings, ST Mirren have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Kilmarnock.
Match statistics
4
Total shots
5
2
Shots on target
4
0.82
Actual xG
1.08
2
Saves
2
60%
Possession
40%
1
Corners
3
13
Tackles
11
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
9'
(og)
M. Freckleton⚽
C. McMenamin
/ S. Tanser
14'
L. Donnelly
15'
R. Idowu
26'
A. Campbell
/ J. Richardson
46'
M. O'Hara
/ J. Young
46'
46'
D. Watson
/
N. Clescenco
46'
ast. G. Kiltie ·
F. Curtis⚽
52'
J. Hugill
K. Phillips
54'
54'
L. Mayo
/
M. Schjonning-Larsen
68'
ast. T. Lowery ·
F. Curtis⚽
S. Tanser
/ R. King
69'
R. Idowu
/ L. Douglas
74'
79'
B. Anderson
/
J. Hugill
79'
R. McKenzie
/
G. Kiltie
87'
K. Magennis
/
F. Curtis
Pre-match prediction
42.24%
ST
28.86%
X
28.9%
Kilmarnock ←
we assigned to the actual result (Kilmarnock)
28.9%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.12
0.82
-0.3
0.90
1.08
+0.18
xG dominance was balanced (0.82 – 1.08).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
27
87'
G
21
Miguel Freckleton
1 ⚽
87'
D
Miguel Freckleton
1 ⚽
87'
D
4
Liam Donnelly
87'
D
Liam Donnelly
87'
D
22
87'
D
10
C. McMenamin
14'
M
16
Allan Campbell
45'
M
Allan Campbell
45'
M
8
Jacob Devaney
87'
M
Jacob Devaney
87'
M
6
45'
M
88
Killian Phillips
87'
F
Killian Phillips
87'
F
9
Mikael Mandron
87'
F
Mikael Mandron
87'
F
7
Roland Idowu
74'
F
Roland Idowu
74'
F
Bench
5
Richard King
18'
D
Richard King
18'
D
3
Scott Tanser
55'
D
Scott Tanser
55'
D
1
87'
G
3
87'
D
6
Robbie Deas
87'
D
Robbie Deas
87'
D
14
George Stanger
87'
D
George Stanger
87'
D
21
Michael Schjønning-Larsen
54'
D
Michael Schjønning-Larsen
54'
D
18
Tom Lowery
1 👟
87'
M
Tom Lowery
1 👟
87'
M
36
Aaron Tshibola
87'
M
Aaron Tshibola
87'
M
11
Greg Kiltie
1 👟
79'
M
Greg Kiltie
1 👟
79'
M
20
Nicky Cleșcenco
45'
F
Nicky Cleșcenco
45'
F
44
Joe Hugill
79'
F
Joe Hugill
79'
F
52
Findlay Curtis
2 ⚽
87'
F
Findlay Curtis
2 ⚽
87'
F
Bench
19
Bruce Anderson
8'
F
Bruce Anderson
8'
F
16
Kyle Magennis
M
Kyle Magennis
M
31
Liam Polworth
M
Liam Polworth
M
Best on the pitch
Findlay Curtis
F · Kilmarnock
8.90
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 24 pass
Robbie Deas
D · Kilmarnock
7.70
· 33 pass
George Stanger
D · Kilmarnock
7.30
· 39 pass
Aaron Tshibola
M · Kilmarnock
7.20
2 shots
· 58 pass
Tom Lowery
M · Kilmarnock
7.20
1 👟
· 46 pass
G · Kilmarnock
7.00
· 23 pass
ST Mirren — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 87 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 21% | — | — | — | |
| Miguel Freckleton | D | 87 | 6.90 | 1 | — | — | 90 | 78% | 1 | — | — |
| Liam Donnelly | D | 87 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 77 | 66% | 3 | 1 | — |
| D | 87 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 88 | 75% | 2 | — | — | |
| C. McMenamin | M | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Allan Campbell | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 19% | 4 | — | — |
| Jacob Devaney | M | 87 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 70 | 60% | — | — | — |
| M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 14% | 3 | — | — | |
| Killian Phillips | F | 87 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 40 | 35% | — | 1 | — |
| Mikael Mandron | F | 87 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Roland Idowu | F | 74 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 28% | — | 1 | — |
| Richard King | D | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Scott Tanser | D | 55 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | — | — | — |
Kilmarnock — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 87 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | — | — | — | |
| D | 87 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 54 | 44% | 1 | — | — | |
| Robbie Deas | D | 87 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| George Stanger | D | 87 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Michael Schjønning-Larsen | D | 54 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Tom Lowery | M | 87 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 46 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Aaron Tshibola | M | 87 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 58 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| Greg Kiltie | M | 79 | 6.50 | — | 1 | — | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Nicky Cleșcenco | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Joe Hugill | F | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| Findlay Curtis | F | 87 | 8.90 | 2 | — | 3 | 24 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Bruce Anderson | F | 8 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of ST Mirren vs Kilmarnock?
The final score was ST Mirren 0–3 Kilmarnock.
What did the model predict before ST Mirren vs Kilmarnock?
The model assigned 42% probability to a ST Mirren win, 28% to a draw, and 28% to an Kilmarnock win.