✗Model wrong — prediction St Patrick's Athl., result Draw
A. Keena
27'
(pen.)
72'
J. Clarke
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St Patrick's Athl. a 55% win probability (draw 24%, Derry City 20%). The final result was St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Derry City. In 3 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for Derry City.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
9
8
Shots on target
7
1.64
Actual xG
0.49
5
Saves
6
47%
Possession
53%
3
Corners
7
17
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
J. Brown
23'
⚽A. Keena
(pen.)
27'
K. Leavy
34'
37'
A. O'Reilly
K. Leavy
/ B. Baggley
46'
50'
D. Burns
J. Brown
/ A. Breslin
64'
67'
B. Cotter
/
M. Duffy
67'
T. Smith
/
C. Barr
67'
L. Boyce
/
D. Burns
67'
P. McClean
/
E. Chapman
72'
J. Clarke⚽
A. Keena
/ A. Olusanya
73'
S. Kenny
73'
80'
J. Olayinka
/
J. Clarke
D. Nugent
/ R. Sheridan
82'
J. Lennon
88'
90'+2
R. Slevin
/
B. Fleming
Pre-match prediction
55.4%
St
24.18%
X ←
20.42%
Derry
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
24.18%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.82
1.64
-0.18
1.05
0.49
-0.56
St Patrick's Athl. dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.49).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
94
J. Anang
G
J. Anang
G
24
L. Turner
D
L. Turner
D
2
S. Hoare
D
S. Hoare
D
4
J. Redmond
D
J. Redmond
D
11
J. McClelland
M
J. McClelland
M
16
D. Nugent
82'
M
D. Nugent
82'
M
10
K. Leavy
45'
M
K. Leavy
45'
M
6
J. Lennon
M
J. Lennon
M
23
J. Brown
64'
M
J. Brown
64'
M
9
A. Keena
1 ⚽
73'
F
A. Keena
1 ⚽
73'
F
27
R. Edmondson
F
R. Edmondson
F
Bench
3
A. Breslin
31'
D
A. Breslin
31'
D
21
A. Olusanya
22'
F
A. Olusanya
22'
F
19
B. Baggley
50'
M
B. Baggley
50'
M
32
Billy Canny
D
Billy Canny
D
1
D. Rogers
G
D. Rogers
G
37
Joe Byrne
M
Joe Byrne
M
48
R. Sheridan
13'
M
R. Sheridan
13'
M
33
S. McHale
D
S. McHale
D
35
S. Rooney
F
S. Rooney
F
1
B. Maher
G
B. Maher
G
19
B. Fleming
D
B. Fleming
D
4
J. Stott
D
J. Stott
D
22
C. Barr
67'
D
C. Barr
67'
D
24
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
D
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
D
17
N. Twisk
M
N. Twisk
M
12
D. Burns
67'
M
D. Burns
67'
M
8
A. O'Reilly
M
A. O'Reilly
M
7
M. Duffy
67'
F
M. Duffy
67'
F
15
J. Clarke
1 ⚽
80'
F
J. Clarke
1 ⚽
80'
F
14
E. Chapman
67'
F
E. Chapman
67'
F
Bench
2
B. Cotter
28'
D
23
C. Dummigan
D
C. Dummigan
D
28
J. Olayinka
15'
M
J. Olayinka
15'
M
27
L. Boyce
28'
F
L. Boyce
28'
F
3
Patrick McClean
28'
D
Patrick McClean
28'
D
6
R. Slevin
3'
D
32
T. Doherty
F
T. Doherty
F
13
Tom Norcott
G
Tom Norcott
G
29
T. Smith
28'
F
T. Smith
28'
F
Best on the pitch
B. Maher
G · Derry
8.30
· 37 pass
A. Keena
F · St
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 21 pass
J. Clarke
F · Derry
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 20 pass
L. Turner
D · St
7.20
1 shots
· 42 pass
J. Redmond
D · St
7.20
· 69 pass
D. Nugent
M · St
7.20
1 shots
· 24 pass
St Patrick's Athl. — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Anang | G | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | — | — | — |
| L. Turner | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Hoare | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 48 | 44% | — | — | — |
| J. Redmond | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 69 | 54% | 2 | — | — |
| J. McClelland | M | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Nugent | M | 82 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Leavy | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 12% | 2 | 1 | — |
| J. Lennon | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 28% | 4 | 1 | — |
| J. Brown | M | 64 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Keena | F | 73 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| R. Edmondson | F | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Breslin | D | 31 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| A. Olusanya | F | 22 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| B. Baggley | M | 50 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| R. Sheridan | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Derry City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Maher | G | 95 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | — | — | — |
| B. Fleming | D | 92 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 52 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Stott | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Barr | D | 67 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 41 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Brooklyn Lyons-Foster | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 39 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Twisk | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 37% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Burns | M | 67 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. O'Reilly | M | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 40 | 35% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Duffy | F | 67 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Clarke | F | 80 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 20 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Chapman | F | 67 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 24% | — | — | — |
| B. Cotter | D | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| J. Olayinka | M | 15 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Boyce | F | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Patrick McClean | D | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 13% | — | — | — |
| R. Slevin | D | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Smith | F | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
The final score was St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Derry City.
What did the model predict before St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
The model assigned 55% probability to a St Patrick's Athl. win, 24% to a draw, and 20% to an Derry City win.