✗Model wrong — prediction St Patrick's Athl., result Draw
A. Keena
27'
(pen.)
72'
J. Clarke
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St Patrick's Athl. a 55% win probability (draw 24%, Derry City 20%). The final result was St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Derry City. In 2 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Derry City.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
9
8
Shots on target
7
1.64
Actual xG
0.49
5
Saves
6
47%
Possession
53%
3
Corners
7
17
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
J. Brown
23'
⚽A. Keena
(pen.)
27'
K. Leavy
34'
37'
A. O'Reilly
K. Leavy
/ B. Baggley
46'
50'
D. Burns
J. Brown
/ A. Breslin
64'
67'
B. Cotter
/
M. Duffy
67'
T. Smith
/
C. Barr
67'
L. Boyce
/
D. Burns
67'
P. McClean
/
E. Chapman
72'
J. Clarke⚽
A. Keena
/ A. Olusanya
73'
S. Kenny
73'
80'
J. Olayinka
/
J. Clarke
D. Nugent
/ R. Sheridan
82'
J. Lennon
88'
90'+2
R. Slevin
/
B. Fleming
Pre-match prediction
55.4%
St
24.18%
X ←
20.42%
Derry
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
24.18%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.82
1.64
-0.18
1.05
0.49
-0.56
St Patrick's Athl. dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.49).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
94
Joseph Anang
G
Joseph Anang
G
24
Luke Turner
D
Luke Turner
D
2
Sean Hoare
D
Sean Hoare
D
4
Joe Redmond
D
Joe Redmond
D
11
Jason McClelland
M
Jason McClelland
M
16
Darragh Nugent
82'
M
Darragh Nugent
82'
M
10
K. Leavy
45'
M
K. Leavy
45'
M
6
Jamie Lennon
M
Jamie Lennon
M
23
James Brown
64'
M
James Brown
64'
M
9
Aidan Keena
1 ⚽
73'
F
Aidan Keena
1 ⚽
73'
F
27
Ryan Edmondson
F
Ryan Edmondson
F
Bench
21
Anthony Olusanya
22'
F
Anthony Olusanya
22'
F
3
Anto Breslin
31'
D
Anto Breslin
31'
D
19
Barry Baggley
50'
M
Barry Baggley
50'
M
32
Billy Canny
D
Billy Canny
D
1
Danny Rogers
G
Danny Rogers
G
37
Joe Byrne
M
Joe Byrne
M
48
Ryan Sheridan
13'
M
Ryan Sheridan
13'
M
35
Sam Rooney
F
Sam Rooney
F
33
Sean McHale
D
Sean McHale
D
1
Brian Maher
G
Brian Maher
G
19
B. Fleming
D
B. Fleming
D
4
Jamie Stott
D
Jamie Stott
D
22
Conor Barr
67'
D
Conor Barr
67'
D
24
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
D
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
D
17
Nick Twisk
M
Nick Twisk
M
12
Darragh Burns
67'
M
Darragh Burns
67'
M
8
Adam O'Reilly
M
Adam O'Reilly
M
7
Michael Duffy
67'
F
Michael Duffy
67'
F
15
James Clarke
1 ⚽
80'
F
James Clarke
1 ⚽
80'
F
14
Ellis Chapman
67'
F
Ellis Chapman
67'
F
Bench
2
Barry Cotter
28'
D
Barry Cotter
28'
D
23
Cameron Dummigan
D
Cameron Dummigan
D
28
James Olayinka
15'
M
James Olayinka
15'
M
27
Liam Boyce
28'
F
Liam Boyce
28'
F
3
Patrick McClean
28'
D
Patrick McClean
28'
D
6
Robert Slevin
3'
D
Robert Slevin
3'
D
32
Terence Doherty
F
Terence Doherty
F
13
Tom Norcott
G
Tom Norcott
G
29
Tyler Smith
28'
F
Tyler Smith
28'
F
Best on the pitch
Brian Maher
G · Derry
8.30
· 37 pass
Aidan Keena
F · St
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 21 pass
James Clarke
F · Derry
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 20 pass
Luke Turner
D · St
7.20
1 shots
· 42 pass
Joe Redmond
D · St
7.20
· 69 pass
Darragh Nugent
M · St
7.20
1 shots
· 24 pass
St Patrick's Athl. — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Anang | G | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Luke Turner | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Sean Hoare | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 48 | 44% | — | — | — |
| Joe Redmond | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 69 | 54% | 2 | — | — |
| Jason McClelland | M | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Darragh Nugent | M | 82 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Leavy | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 12% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Jamie Lennon | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 28% | 4 | 1 | — |
| James Brown | M | 64 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Aidan Keena | F | 73 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Ryan Edmondson | F | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Anthony Olusanya | F | 22 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Anto Breslin | D | 31 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Barry Baggley | M | 50 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| Ryan Sheridan | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Derry City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Maher | G | 95 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | — | — | — |
| B. Fleming | D | 92 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 52 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| Jamie Stott | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Conor Barr | D | 67 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 41 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Brooklyn Lyons-Foster | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 39 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Nick Twisk | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 37% | 2 | — | — |
| Darragh Burns | M | 67 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Adam O'Reilly | M | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 40 | 35% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Michael Duffy | F | 67 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| James Clarke | F | 80 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 20 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Ellis Chapman | F | 67 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Barry Cotter | D | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| James Olayinka | M | 15 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Liam Boyce | F | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Patrick McClean | D | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Robert Slevin | D | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Smith | F | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
The final score was St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Derry City.
What did the model predict before St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
The model assigned 55% probability to a St Patrick's Athl. win, 24% to a draw, and 20% to an Derry City win.