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Premier Division · Regular Season - 17 May 15, 2026 20:45 Richmond Park, Dublin
St Patrick's Athl.
#3 · 60 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Shelbourne
#4 · 49 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction St Patrick's Athl., result Shelbourne wins
82' (ast. R. Freitas) D. Kelly
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St Patrick's Athl. a 63% win probability (draw 18%, Shelbourne 17%). The final result was St Patrick's Athl. 0–1 Shelbourne. In 3 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Shelbourne.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
6
2
Shots on target
4
0.45
Actual xG
0.81
3
Saves
2
61%
Possession
39%
3
Corners
4
12
Tackles
7
3
🟨 Yellow cards
5
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
L. Turner
15'
S. Hoare
28'
39'
K. McInroy
46'
E. Caffrey / K. McInroy ↕
57'
M. Mbeng
58'
S. Gannon / M. Mbeng ↕
58'
D. Kelly / A. Coote ↕
73'
R. Freitas / W. Jarvis ↕
76'
Z. Ibsen Rossi
↕ B. Baggley / R. Palmer
76'
↕ C. Forrester / D. Nugent
77'
80'
J. Martin
↕ R. Edmondson / A. Keena
80'
82'
ast. R. Freitas · D. Kelly⚽
J. Lennon
84'
↕ J. Lennon / S. Rooney
89'
↕ J. Brown / J. McClelland
89'
89'
E. Chapman / J. Martin ↕
90'+2
W. Speel
90'+6
S. Gannon
S. Hoare
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
63.89%
St
18.6%
X
17.51%
Shelbourne ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Shelbourne) 17.51% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
St
2.76
0.45
-2.31
Shelbourne
1.31
0.81
-0.5
Shelbourne dominated by xG (0.81 vs 0.45). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 36 68
2 Bohemians Bohemians 36 65
3 St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 36 60
4 Shelbourne Shelbourne 36 49
5 Derry City Derry City 36 48
6 Dundalk Dundalk 36 45
7 Waterford Waterford 36 43
8 Galway United Galway United 36 42
9 Drogheda United Drogheda United 36 40
10 Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers 36 25
Lineups
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 3-4-3
94 J. Anang J. Anang G 6.30
24 L. Turner L. Turner D 7.20
2 S. Hoare S. Hoare D 7.60
4 J. Redmond J. Redmond D 6.90
7 Z. Elbouzedi Z. Elbouzedi M 6.90
19 B. Baggley B. Baggley 76' M 6.90
6 J. Lennon J. Lennon 89' M 7.50
23 J. Brown J. Brown 89' M 7.00
8 C. Forrester C. Forrester 77' F 6.90
27 R. Edmondson R. Edmondson 80' F 6.00
10 K. Leavy K. Leavy F 7.00
Bench
3 A. Breslin A. Breslin D
9 A. Keena A. Keena 16' F 6.30
16 D. Nugent D. Nugent 19' M 6.30
1 D. Rogers D. Rogers G
42 Glory Nzingo Glory Nzingo M
11 J. McClelland J. McClelland 7' F
17 R. Palmer R. Palmer 20' M 6.30
35 S. Rooney S. Rooney 7' F
5 T. Grivosti T. Grivosti D
Shelbourne Shelbourne 4-5-1
1 Wessel Speel Wessel Speel G 6.90
4 K. Ledwidge K. Ledwidge D 7.30
24
Zeno Ibsen Rossi D 7.00
15 S. Bone S. Bone D 7.30
25 M. Mbeng M. Mbeng 58' D 6.20
36 W. Jarvis W. Jarvis 73' M 6.70
7 H. Wood H. Wood M 6.70
6 J. Lunney J. Lunney M 6.70
23 Kerr McInroy Kerr McInroy 45' M 6.50
14 A. Coote A. Coote 58' M 6.30
10 J. Martin J. Martin 89' F 6.30
Bench
31 C. Walsh C. Walsh G
17 D. Kelly D. Kelly 1 ⚽ 38' M 7.30
27 E. Caffrey E. Caffrey 51' M 6.70
5 E. Chapman E. Chapman 7' M
28 I. Lundgren I. Lundgren M
11 M. Odubeko M. Odubeko F
20 R. Freitas R. Freitas 1 👟 23' F 6.60
9 Sean Boyd Sean Boyd F
2 S. Gannon S. Gannon 38' D 6.60
Best on the pitch
S. Hoare
S. Hoare
D · St
7.60
1 shots · 105 pass
J. Lennon
J. Lennon
M · St
7.50
· 57 pass
D. Kelly
D. Kelly
M · Shelbourne
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 7 pass
S. Bone
S. Bone
D · Shelbourne
7.30
· 40 pass
K. Ledwidge
K. Ledwidge
D · Shelbourne
7.30
· 42 pass
L. Turner
L. Turner
D · St
7.20
1 shots · 76 pass
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Anang G 96 6.30 — — — 23 17% — — —
L. Turner D 96 7.20 — — 1 76 65% 3 1 —
S. Hoare D 96 7.60 — — 1 105 92% 2 1 1
J. Redmond D 96 6.90 — — 1 80 70% — — —
Z. Elbouzedi M 96 6.90 — — 1 34 30% 1 — —
B. Baggley M 76 6.90 — — — 42 35% 1 — —
J. Lennon M 89 7.50 — — — 57 47% 3 1 —
J. Brown M 89 7.00 — — 1 32 26% 2 — —
C. Forrester F 77 6.90 — — 2 28 26% — — —
R. Edmondson F 80 6.00 — — — 12 7% — — —
K. Leavy F 96 7.00 — — 1 36 31% — — —
A. Keena F 16 6.30 — — 1 4 2% — — —
D. Nugent M 19 6.30 — — — 9 8% — — —
J. McClelland F 7 — — — — 2 2% — — —
R. Palmer M 20 6.30 — — — 4 4% — — —
S. Rooney F 7 — — — — 3 2% — — —
Shelbourne Shelbourne — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Wessel Speel G 96 6.90 — — — 24 17% — 1 —
K. Ledwidge D 96 7.30 — — — 42 30% 1 — —
Zeno Ibsen Rossi D 96 7.00 — — — 41 33% 1 1 —
S. Bone D 96 7.30 — — — 40 30% 1 — —
M. Mbeng D 58 6.20 — — 1 24 21% — 1 —
W. Jarvis M 73 6.70 — — — 10 9% 2 — —
H. Wood M 96 6.70 — — 2 37 31% 1 — —
J. Lunney M 96 6.70 — — — 46 44% — — —
Kerr McInroy M 45 6.50 — — — 20 15% — 1 —
A. Coote M 58 6.30 — — 1 25 17% 1 — —
J. Martin F 89 6.30 — — 1 12 8% — 1 —
D. Kelly M 38 7.30 1 — 1 7 6% — — —
E. Caffrey M 51 6.70 — — — 14 12% — — —
E. Chapman M 7 — — — — — — — — —
R. Freitas F 23 6.60 — 1 — 4 4% — — —
S. Gannon D 38 6.60 — — — 12 10% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
The final score was St Patrick's Athl. 0–1 Shelbourne.
What did the model predict before St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
The model assigned 63% probability to a St Patrick's Athl. win, 18% to a draw, and 17% to an Shelbourne win.