Stade Brestois 29 3–3 Lens — pre-match prediction — Ligue 1 — April 24, 2026

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 31 April 24, 2026 20:45 Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

Stade Brestois 29

#13 · 9 pts

3 – 3

Final score

Lens

#7 · 13 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Lens, result Draw

D. Guindo (ast. J. Chotard) 7'

L. Tousart (ast. D. Guindo) 25'

J. Dina Ebimbe (ast. L. Ajorque) 42'

60' F. Thauvin

64' (ast. S. Abdulhamid) A. Sima

90'+4 (ast. M. Sangare) A. Saint-Maximin

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Lens a 58% win probability (draw 19%, Stade Brestois 29 21%). The final result was Stade Brestois 29 3–3 Lens. In 1 previous meetings, Stade Brestois 29 have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Lens.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.20

Actual xG

2.65

Saves

36%

Possession

64%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽D. Guindo · ast. J. Chotard

⚽L. Tousart · ast. D. Guindo

25'

⚽J. Dina Ebimbe · ast. L. Ajorque

42'

52'

F. Thauvin / F. Sotoca ↕

53'

S. Baidoo / A. Masuaku ↕

53'

S. Abdulhamid / R. Aguilar ↕

53'

A. Saint-Maximin / W. Said ↕

56'

A. Thomasson

60'

F. Thauvin⚽

64'

ast. S. Abdulhamid · A. Sima⚽

64'

O. Edouard / A. Sima ↕

↕ J. Dina Ebimbe / M. Balde

67'

J. Dina Ebimbe

75'

↕ L. Tousart / J. M. Diaz

80'

85'

M. Sangare

↕ D. Guindo / L. Zogbe

89'

↕ R. Del Castillo / P. Mboup

89'

K. Lala

90'+4

ast. M. Sangare · A. Saint-Maximin⚽

G. Coudert

90'+6

A. Saint-Maximin

Pre-match prediction

21.55%

Stade

19.94%

X ←

58.51%

Lens

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 19.94% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Stade

1.20

0.20

-1.01

Lens

2.34

2.65

+0.31

Lens dominated by xG (2.65 vs 0.20). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	8	17
2	Rennes	8	16
3	Lille	8	15
4	Monaco	8	15
5	Lyon	8	14
6	Paris FC	8	14
7	Lens	8	13
8	Marseille	8	12
9	Lorient	8	12
10	Nice	8	11
11	Toulouse	8	10
12	Auxerre	8	10
13	Stade Brestois 29	8	9
14	Angers	8	8
15	Le Mans	8	7
16	Strasbourg	8	7
17	Estac Troyes	8	5
18	Le Havre	8	2

Lineups

Stade Brestois 29 4-1-4-1

G. Coudert G 6.30

D. Guindo 1 ⚽ 1 👟 88' D 8.20

S. Coulibaly D 6.20

Brendan Chardonnet D 7.20

K. Lala D 6.30

J. Chotard 1 👟 M 7.00

J. Dina Ebimbe 1 ⚽ 67' M 7.20

H. Magnetti M 6.90

L. Tousart 1 ⚽ 80' M 7.20

R. Del Castillo 89' M 6.60

L. Ajorque 1 👟 F 7.20

Bench

M. Diaz 12' D 6.30

Lens 3-4-2-1

G 5.90

Arthur Masuaku 53' D 5.30

M. Sarr D 6.70

I. Ganiou D 5.90

M. Udol M 6.90

A. Thomasson M 6.00

M. Sangaré 1 👟 M 7.20

R. Aguilar 52' M 7.20

W. Saïd 53' F 6.50

F. Sotoca 52' F 6.30

A. Sima 1 ⚽ 64' F 6.90

Bench

A. Bulatović M

A. Haidara M

A. Saint-Maximin 1 ⚽ 39' F 7.20

F. Thauvin 1 ⚽ 40' F 7.90

O. Édouard 28' F 6.20

R. Fofana F

Saud Abdulhamid 1 👟 40' D 7.60

S. Baidoo 39' D 6.30

Best on the pitch

D. Guindo

D · Stade

8.20

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 29 pass

F. Thauvin

F · Lens

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 24 pass

Saud Abdulhamid

D · Lens

7.60

1 👟

· 20 pass

M. Sangaré

M · Lens

7.20

1 👟

3 shots · 94 pass

R. Aguilar

M · Lens

7.20

· 47 pass

A. Saint-Maximin

F · Lens

7.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 22 pass

Stade Brestois 29 — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
G. Coudert	G	92	6.30	—	—	—	42	23%	—	—	—
D. Guindo	D	88	8.20	1	1	1	29	24%	—	—	—
S. Coulibaly	D	92	6.20	—	—	—	21	17%	—	—	—
Brendan Chardonnet	D	92	7.20	—	—	—	27	23%	2	—	—
K. Lala	D	92	6.30	—	—	—	26	18%	—	—	—
J. Chotard	M	92	7.00	—	1	—	36	32%	1	—	—
J. Dina Ebimbe	M	67	7.20	1	—	1	17	14%	—	1	—
H. Magnetti	M	92	6.90	—	—	—	34	25%	—	—	—
L. Tousart	M	80	7.20	1	—	1	20	12%	1	—	—
R. Del Castillo	M	89	6.60	—	—	—	35	27%	1	—	—
L. Ajorque	F	92	7.20	—	1	1	33	23%	4	—	—
M. Diaz	D	12	6.30	—	—	—	2	1%	—	—	—

Lens — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	92	5.90	—	—	—	17	17%	—	—	—
Arthur Masuaku	D	53	5.30	—	—	—	45	33%	1	—	—
M. Sarr	D	92	6.70	—	—	—	51	44%	—	—	—
I. Ganiou	D	92	5.90	—	—	1	82	74%	—	—	—
M. Udol	M	92	6.90	—	—	—	37	35%	2	—	—
A. Thomasson	M	92	6.00	—	—	3	50	39%	3	1	—
M. Sangaré	M	92	7.20	—	1	3	94	79%	2	1	—
R. Aguilar	M	52	7.20	—	—	—	47	44%	1	—	—
W. Saïd	F	53	6.50	—	—	—	22	19%	—	—	—
F. Sotoca	F	52	6.30	—	—	—	31	25%	—	—	—
A. Sima	F	64	6.90	1	—	6	10	9%	—	—	—
A. Saint-Maximin	F	39	7.20	1	—	1	22	20%	—	—	—
F. Thauvin	F	40	7.90	1	—	1	24	19%	—	—	—
O. Édouard	F	28	6.20	—	—	1	4	4%	—	—	—
Saud Abdulhamid	D	40	7.60	—	1	—	20	19%	3	—	—
S. Baidoo	D	39	6.30	—	—	—	14	11%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens?

The final score was Stade Brestois 29 3–3 Lens.

What did the model predict before Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens?

The model assigned 21% probability to a Stade Brestois 29 win, 19% to a draw, and 58% to an Lens win.