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Championship · Regular Season - 10 October 13, 2026 21:00 bet365 Stadium, Stoke-On-Trent
Stoke City
#9 · 20 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Middlesbrough
#1 · 25 pts
Neto Borges 50' (og)
Róbert Boženík (ast. George Hirst) 85'
48' (ast. Amario Cozier-Duberry) Callum Brittain
73' will lankshear
90'+1 Neto Borges
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 36% win probability (draw 28%, Stoke City 35%). The final result was Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough. In 2 previous meetings, Stoke City have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Middlesbrough.

Match statistics
8
Total shots
20
1
Shots on target
9
0.74
Actual xG
2.63
7
Saves
0
34%
Possession
66%
4
Corners
3
6
Tackles
20
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
48'
ast. Amario Cozier-Duberry · Callum Brittain⚽
⚽Neto Borges (og)
50'
51'
Sebastian Berhalter
64'
Riley McGree / Sebastian Berhalter ↕
64'
Tommy Conway / Jeremy Sarmiento ↕
↕ Lamine Cissé / George Hirst
67'
↕ Bae Jun-ho / Justin Devenny
67'
Luke Graham
68'
73'
will lankshear⚽
77'
Kyle Joseph / will lankshear ↕
78'
Max Arfsten / Amario Cozier-Duberry ↕
↕ Junior Tchamadeu / Bosun Lawal
79'
↕ El Hadji Soumare / Róbert Boženík
79'
↕ Eric Junior Bocat / Luca Bombino
79'
⚽Róbert Boženík · ast. George Hirst
85'
90'+1
Neto Borges⚽
Pre-match prediction
35.6%
Stoke
28.04%
X
36.36%
Middlesbrough ←
we assigned to the actual result (Middlesbrough) 36.36% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Stoke
1.59
0.74
-0.85
Middlesbrough
1.45
2.63
+1.18
Middlesbrough dominated by xG (2.63 vs 0.74). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Stoke City Stoke City 3-4-3
1 V. Johansson V. Johansson G 6.56
5 L. Graham L. Graham D 5.85
16 B. Wilmot B. Wilmot D 6.65
2 B. Johnson B. Johnson D 5.51
17 E. Bocat E. Bocat 79' M 6.40
8 E. Galbraith E. Galbraith M 5.78
27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré El Hadji Djibril Soumaré 79' M 6.08
22 J. Tchamadeu J. Tchamadeu 79' M 5.89
10 Bae Jun-Ho Bae Jun-Ho 67' F 5.96
11 L. Cissé L. Cissé 67' F 6.17
7 J. McGlynn J. McGlynn F 6.33
Bench
23 B. Gibson B. Gibson D 0.00
18 B. Lawal B. Lawal 11' D 6.21
4 B. Pearson B. Pearson M 0.00
15 G. Hirst G. Hirst 1 👟 23' F 6.46
13 J. Devenny J. Devenny 23' M 5.90
24 J. Griffiths J. Griffiths G 0.00
21 L. Bombino L. Bombino 11' D 6.09
42 M. Manhoef M. Manhoef F 0.00
9 R. Boženík R. Boženík 1 ⚽ 11' F 7.86
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
1 R. Vítek R. Vítek G 6.13
29 A. Malanda A. Malanda D 6.87
4 A. Phillips A. Phillips D 6.56
12 L. Ayling L. Ayling D 7.26
30 Neto Borges Neto Borges 2 ⚽ M 6.98
10 A. Morris A. Morris M 6.93
6 S. Berhalter S. Berhalter 64' M 6.43
2 C. Brittain C. Brittain 1 ⚽ M 7.88
16 J. Sarmiento J. Sarmiento 64' M 6.83
11 A. Cozier-Duberry A. Cozier-Duberry 1 👟 78' M 7.61
7 W. Lankshear W. Lankshear 1 ⚽ 77' F 8.09
Bench
18 C. Barron C. Barron M 0.00
22 K. Joseph K. Joseph 13' F 6.33
19 Leo Castledine Leo Castledine M 0.00
17 M. Arfsten M. Arfsten 12' D 6.53
14 M. Peart-Harris M. Peart-Harris M 0.00
8 R. McGree R. McGree 26' M 6.19
31 S. Brynn S. Brynn G 0.00
3 S. Byram S. Byram D 0.00
9 T. Conway T. Conway 26' F 6.54
Best on the pitch
W. Lankshear
W. Lankshear
F · Middlesbrough
8.09
1 ⚽
3 shots · 16 pass
C. Brittain
C. Brittain
M · Middlesbrough
7.88
1 ⚽
4 shots · 64 pass
R. Boženík
R. Boženík
F · Stoke
7.86
1 ⚽
2 shots · 4 pass
A. Cozier-Duberry
A. Cozier-Duberry
M · Middlesbrough
7.61
1 👟
4 shots · 34 pass
L. Ayling
L. Ayling
D · Middlesbrough
7.26
· 74 pass
Neto Borges
Neto Borges
M · Middlesbrough
6.98
2 ⚽
2 shots · 55 pass
Stoke City Stoke City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
V. Johansson G 90 6.56 — — 0 34 18% 0 — —
L. Graham D 90 5.85 — — 0 40 33% 0 1 —
B. Wilmot D 90 6.65 — — 0 37 33% 1 — —
B. Johnson D 90 5.51 — — 0 29 23% 0 — —
E. Bocat M 79 6.40 — — 0 11 10% 1 — —
E. Galbraith M 90 5.78 — — 1 25 19% 0 — —
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré M 79 6.08 — — 2 29 23% 2 — —
J. Tchamadeu M 79 5.89 — — 1 18 9% 1 — —
Bae Jun-Ho F 67 5.96 — — 0 7 4% 0 — —
L. Cissé F 67 6.17 — — 0 9 3% 0 — —
J. McGlynn F 90 6.33 — — 1 38 32% 1 — —
B. Lawal D 11 6.21 — — 0 4 3% 0 — —
G. Hirst F 23 6.46 — 1 1 3 2% 0 — —
J. Devenny M 23 5.90 — — 0 5 4% 0 — —
L. Bombino D 11 6.09 — — 0 4 3% 0 — —
R. Boženík F 11 7.86 1 — 2 4 4% 0 — —
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
R. Vítek G 90 6.13 — — 0 22 15% 0 — —
A. Malanda D 90 6.87 — — 0 101 91% 0 — —
A. Phillips D 90 6.56 — — 1 53 48% 0 — —
L. Ayling D 90 7.26 — — 0 74 70% 5 — —
Neto Borges M 90 6.98 2 — 2 55 48% 2 — —
A. Morris M 90 6.93 — — 4 81 72% 6 — —
S. Berhalter M 64 6.43 — — 1 36 29% 4 1 —
C. Brittain M 90 7.88 1 — 4 64 54% 0 — —
J. Sarmiento M 64 6.83 — — 0 21 20% 2 — —
A. Cozier-Duberry M 78 7.61 — 1 4 34 32% 0 — —
W. Lankshear F 77 8.09 1 — 3 16 13% 0 — —
K. Joseph F 13 6.33 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
M. Arfsten D 12 6.53 — — 0 8 7% 0 — —
R. McGree M 26 6.19 — — 0 17 14% 1 — —
T. Conway F 26 6.54 — — 1 10 9% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
The final score was Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough.
What did the model predict before Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Stoke City win, 28% to a draw, and 36% to an Middlesbrough win.