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Championship · Regular Season - 44 April 21, 2026 20:45
Stoke City
#9 · 20 pts
1 – 3
Final score
Millwall
#13 · 15 pts
C. Taylor 60' (og)
20' C. Neghli
55' (ast. T. Ballo) F. Azeez
69' (ast. C. Neghli) J. Coburn
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Millwall a 38% win probability (draw 28%, Stoke City 33%). The final result was Stoke City 1–3 Millwall. In 1 previous meetings, Stoke City have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Millwall.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
11
4
Shots on target
6
0.98
Actual xG
1.48
3
Saves
4
46%
Possession
54%
11
Corners
1
9
Tackles
12
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
5'
D. Mazou-Sacko
15'
C. De Norre
20'
C. Neghli⚽
55'
ast. T. Ballo · F. Azeez⚽
↕ M. Manhoef / S. Gallagher
59'
↕ L. Baker / L. Cisse
60'
⚽C. Taylor (og)
60'
69'
ast. C. Neghli · J. Coburn⚽
↕ R. Bozenik / M. Smit
74'
↕ S. N'Zonzi / B. Pearson
74'
80'
D. McNamara / Z. Sturge ↕
80'
M. Ivanovic / J. Coburn ↕
80'
T. Watson / T. Ballo ↕
81'
D. McNamara
85'
L. Cundle / F. Azeez ↕
85'
M. Langstaff / C. De Norre ↕
Pre-match prediction
33.29%
Stoke
28.53%
X
38.17%
Millwall ←
we assigned to the actual result (Millwall) 38.17% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Stoke
1.19
0.98
-0.21
Millwall
1.16
1.48
+0.32
Millwall dominated by xG (1.48 vs 0.98). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Stoke City Stoke City 4-2-3-1
31
G 5.70
17 E. Bocat E. Bocat D 6.50
54
R. Otegbayo D 5.90
26 A. Phillips A. Phillips D 6.00
50
Sydney Agina D 5.60
12
M 6.60
15 S. Nzonzi S. Nzonzi 74' M 7.30
7 S. Thomas S. Thomas M 6.70
8
L. Baker 60' M 6.30
42 M. Manhoef M. Manhoef 59' M 6.50
11 R. Boženík R. Boženík 74' F 6.30
Bench
10 Bae Jun-Ho Bae Jun-Ho M
4 B. Pearson B. Pearson 16' M 6.90
21 Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Jesurun Rak-Sakyi F
29 L. Cissé L. Cissé 30' F 7.00
20 S. Gallagher S. Gallagher 31' F 6.70
Millwall Millwall 4-2-3-1
13
G 7.50
3 Zak Norton Sturge Zak Norton Sturge 80' D 6.60
5 J. Cooper J. Cooper D 6.90
6 C. Taylor C. Taylor 1 ⚽ D 6.30
4
D 6.70
24 C. De Norre C. De Norre 85' M 6.60
49 D. Mazou-Sacko D. Mazou-Sacko M 6.50
7 T. Ballo T. Ballo 1 👟 80' M 7.00
10 C. Neghli C. Neghli 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.00
11 Femi Azeez Femi Azeez 1 ⚽ 85' M 8.20
19 J. Coburn J. Coburn 1 ⚽ 80' F 6.90
Bench
67 B. Bannan B. Bannan M
2 D. McNamara D. McNamara 10' D 6.70
25 L. Cundle L. Cundle 9' M 6.30
17 Macaulay Langstaff Macaulay Langstaff 9' F 6.30
9 M. Ivanović M. Ivanović 10' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez
M · Millwall
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 19 pass
C. Neghli
C. Neghli
M · Millwall
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 31 pass
G · Millwall
7.50
· 25 pass
S. Nzonzi
S. Nzonzi
M · Stoke
7.30
1 shots · 39 pass
T. Ballo
T. Ballo
M · Millwall
7.00
1 👟
2 shots · 13 pass
L. Cissé
L. Cissé
F · Stoke
7.00
2 shots · 9 pass
Stoke City Stoke City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.70 — — — 34 15% — — —
E. Bocat D 90 6.50 — — 1 35 22% 3 — —
R. Otegbayo D 90 5.90 — — 1 34 26% 2 — —
A. Phillips D 90 6.00 — — — 22 17% — — —
Sydney Agina D 90 5.60 — — — 23 20% — — —
M 90 6.60 — — 1 34 27% 1 — —
S. Nzonzi M 74 7.30 — — 1 39 30% 2 — —
S. Thomas M 90 6.70 — — — 29 19% — — —
L. Baker M 60 6.30 — — 1 22 16% — — —
M. Manhoef M 59 6.50 — — 1 18 14% — — —
R. Boženík F 74 6.30 — — 1 8 6% — — —
B. Pearson M 16 6.90 — — — 12 11% 1 — —
L. Cissé F 30 7.00 — — 2 9 6% — — —
S. Gallagher F 31 6.70 — — — 4 2% — — —
Millwall Millwall — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.50 — — — 25 13% — — —
Zak Norton Sturge D 80 6.60 — — — 24 20% 1 — —
J. Cooper D 90 6.90 — — — 54 43% 1 — —
C. Taylor D 90 6.30 1 — — 57 49% — — —
D 90 6.70 — — 1 43 27% — — —
C. De Norre M 85 6.60 — — — 41 39% 2 1 —
D. Mazou-Sacko M 90 6.50 — — — 43 35% — 1 —
T. Ballo M 80 7.00 — 1 2 13 9% 5 — —
C. Neghli M 90 8.00 1 1 1 31 23% — — —
Femi Azeez M 85 8.20 1 — 3 19 14% 2 — —
J. Coburn F 80 6.90 1 — 3 17 9% — — —
D. McNamara D 10 6.70 — — — 2 2% — 1 —
L. Cundle M 9 6.30 — — — 5 4% — — —
Macaulay Langstaff F 9 6.30 — — — 4 4% 1 — —
M. Ivanović F 10 6.50 — — 1 1 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Stoke City vs Millwall?
The final score was Stoke City 1–3 Millwall.
What did the model predict before Stoke City vs Millwall?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Stoke City win, 28% to a draw, and 38% to an Millwall win.