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Championship · Regular Season - 44 April 21, 2026 20:45
Stoke City
#9 · 10 pts
1 – 3
Final score
Millwall
#12 · 9 pts
C. Taylor 60' (og)
20' C. Neghli
55' (ast. T. Ballo) F. Azeez
69' (ast. C. Neghli) J. Coburn
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Millwall a 38% win probability (draw 28%, Stoke City 33%). The final result was Stoke City 1–3 Millwall. In 1 previous meetings, Stoke City have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Millwall.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
11
4
Shots on target
6
0.98
Actual xG
1.48
3
Saves
4
46%
Possession
54%
11
Corners
1
9
Tackles
12
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
5'
D. Mazou-Sacko
15'
C. De Norre
20'
C. Neghli⚽
55'
ast. T. Ballo · F. Azeez⚽
↕ M. Manhoef / S. Gallagher
59'
↕ L. Baker / L. Cisse
60'
⚽C. Taylor (og)
60'
69'
ast. C. Neghli · J. Coburn⚽
↕ R. Bozenik / M. Smit
74'
↕ S. N'Zonzi / B. Pearson
74'
80'
D. McNamara / Z. Sturge ↕
80'
M. Ivanovic / J. Coburn ↕
80'
T. Watson / T. Ballo ↕
81'
D. McNamara
85'
L. Cundle / F. Azeez ↕
85'
M. Langstaff / C. De Norre ↕
Pre-match prediction
33.29%
Stoke
28.53%
X
38.17%
Millwall ←
we assigned to the actual result (Millwall) 38.17% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Stoke
1.19
0.98
-0.21
Millwall
1.16
1.48
+0.32
Millwall dominated by xG (1.48 vs 0.98). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 West Ham West Ham 7 14
2 Swansea Swansea 7 14
3 West Brom West Brom 7 14
4 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 6 13
5 QPR QPR 7 12
6 Charlton Charlton 7 12
7 Southampton Southampton 7 10
8 Birmingham Birmingham 7 10
9 Stoke City Stoke City 7 10
10 Bristol City Bristol City 6 10
11 Norwich Norwich 7 9
12 Millwall Millwall 6 9
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 6 9
14 Wolves Wolves 5 8
15 Blackburn Blackburn 7 8
16 Lincoln Lincoln 6 8
17 Watford Watford 7 8
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 6 7
19 Wrexham Wrexham 7 7
20 Bolton Bolton 7 7
21 Cardiff Cardiff 7 4
22 Derby Derby 7 4
23 Preston Preston 7 3
24 Burnley Burnley 7 3
Lineups
Stoke City Stoke City 4-2-3-1
31
G 5.70
17 E. Bocat E. Bocat D 6.50
54
R. Otegbayo D 5.90
26 A. Phillips A. Phillips D 6.00
50
Sydney Agina D 5.60
12
M 6.60
15 S. Nzonzi S. Nzonzi 74' M 7.30
7 S. Thomas S. Thomas M 6.70
8
L. Baker 60' M 6.30
42 M. Manhoef M. Manhoef 59' M 6.50
11 R. Boženík R. Boženík 74' F 6.30
Bench
10 Bae Jun-Ho Bae Jun-Ho M
4 B. Pearson B. Pearson 16' M 6.90
21 Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Jesurun Rak-Sakyi F
29 L. Cissé L. Cissé 30' F 7.00
20 S. Gallagher S. Gallagher 31' F 6.70
Millwall Millwall 4-2-3-1
13
G 7.50
3 Zak Norton Sturge Zak Norton Sturge 80' D 6.60
5 J. Cooper J. Cooper D 6.90
6 C. Taylor C. Taylor 1 ⚽ D 6.30
4
D 6.70
24 C. De Norre C. De Norre 85' M 6.60
49 D. Mazou-Sacko D. Mazou-Sacko M 6.50
7 T. Ballo T. Ballo 1 👟 80' M 7.00
10 C. Neghli C. Neghli 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.00
11 Femi Azeez Femi Azeez 1 ⚽ 85' M 8.20
19 J. Coburn J. Coburn 1 ⚽ 80' F 6.90
Bench
67 B. Bannan B. Bannan M
2 D. McNamara D. McNamara 10' D 6.70
25 L. Cundle L. Cundle 9' M 6.30
17 Macaulay Langstaff Macaulay Langstaff 9' F 6.30
9 Mihailo Ivanović Mihailo Ivanović 10' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez
M · Millwall
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 19 pass
C. Neghli
C. Neghli
M · Millwall
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 31 pass
G · Millwall
7.50
· 25 pass
S. Nzonzi
S. Nzonzi
M · Stoke
7.30
1 shots · 39 pass
T. Ballo
T. Ballo
M · Millwall
7.00
1 👟
2 shots · 13 pass
L. Cissé
L. Cissé
F · Stoke
7.00
2 shots · 9 pass
Stoke City Stoke City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.70 — — — 34 15% — — —
E. Bocat D 90 6.50 — — 1 35 22% 3 — —
R. Otegbayo D 90 5.90 — — 1 34 26% 2 — —
A. Phillips D 90 6.00 — — — 22 17% — — —
Sydney Agina D 90 5.60 — — — 23 20% — — —
M 90 6.60 — — 1 34 27% 1 — —
S. Nzonzi M 74 7.30 — — 1 39 30% 2 — —
S. Thomas M 90 6.70 — — — 29 19% — — —
L. Baker M 60 6.30 — — 1 22 16% — — —
M. Manhoef M 59 6.50 — — 1 18 14% — — —
R. Boženík F 74 6.30 — — 1 8 6% — — —
B. Pearson M 16 6.90 — — — 12 11% 1 — —
L. Cissé F 30 7.00 — — 2 9 6% — — —
S. Gallagher F 31 6.70 — — — 4 2% — — —
Millwall Millwall — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.50 — — — 25 13% — — —
Zak Norton Sturge D 80 6.60 — — — 24 20% 1 — —
J. Cooper D 90 6.90 — — — 54 43% 1 — —
C. Taylor D 90 6.30 1 — — 57 49% — — —
D 90 6.70 — — 1 43 27% — — —
C. De Norre M 85 6.60 — — — 41 39% 2 1 —
D. Mazou-Sacko M 90 6.50 — — — 43 35% — 1 —
T. Ballo M 80 7.00 — 1 2 13 9% 5 — —
C. Neghli M 90 8.00 1 1 1 31 23% — — —
Femi Azeez M 85 8.20 1 — 3 19 14% 2 — —
J. Coburn F 80 6.90 1 — 3 17 9% — — —
D. McNamara D 10 6.70 — — — 2 2% — 1 —
L. Cundle M 9 6.30 — — — 5 4% — — —
Macaulay Langstaff F 9 6.30 — — — 4 4% 1 — —
Mihailo Ivanović F 10 6.50 — — 1 1 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Stoke City vs Millwall?
The final score was Stoke City 1–3 Millwall.
What did the model predict before Stoke City vs Millwall?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Stoke City win, 28% to a draw, and 38% to an Millwall win.