← Championship
Championship · Regular Season - 44 April 21, 2026 20:45
Stoke City
#17 · 55 pts
1 – 3
Final score
Millwall
#3 · 83 pts
C. Taylor 60' (og)
20' C. Neghli
55' (ast. T. Ballo) F. Azeez
69' (ast. C. Neghli) J. Coburn

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Millwall a 38% win probability (draw 28%, Stoke City 33%). The final result was Stoke City 1–3 Millwall. In 1 previous meetings, Stoke City have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Millwall.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
11
4
Shots on target
6
0.98
Actual xG
1.48
3
Saves
4
46%
Possession
54%
11
Corners
1
9
Tackles
12
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
5'
D. Mazou-Sacko
15'
C. De Norre
20'
C. Neghli⚽
55'
ast. T. Ballo · F. Azeez⚽
↕ M. Manhoef / S. Gallagher
59'
↕ L. Baker / L. Cisse
60'
⚽C. Taylor (og)
60'
69'
ast. C. Neghli · J. Coburn⚽
↕ R. Bozenik / M. Smit
74'
↕ S. N'Zonzi / B. Pearson
74'
80'
D. McNamara / Z. Sturge ↕
80'
M. Ivanovic / J. Coburn ↕
80'
T. Watson / T. Ballo ↕
81'
D. McNamara
85'
L. Cundle / F. Azeez ↕
85'
M. Langstaff / C. De Norre ↕
Pre-match prediction
33.29%
Stoke
28.53%
X
38.17%
Millwall ←
we assigned to the actual result (Millwall) 38.17% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Stoke
1.19
0.98
-0.21
Millwall
1.16
1.48
+0.32
Millwall dominated by xG (1.48 vs 0.98). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Stoke City Stoke City 4-2-3-1
31
G 5.70
17
E. Bocat D 6.50
54
R. Otegbayo D 5.90
26
A. Phillips D 6.00
50
S. Agina D 5.60
12
M 6.60
15
S. N'Zonzi 74' M 7.30
7 S. Thomas S. Thomas M 6.70
8
L. Baker 60' M 6.30
42
M. Manhoef 59' M 6.50
11
R. Bozenik 74' F 6.30
Bench
4 B. Pearson B. Pearson 16' M 6.90
10
J. Bae M
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi F
29
L. Cisse 30' F 7.00
20
S. Gallagher 31' F 6.70
Millwall Millwall 4-2-3-1
13
G 7.50
3 Zak Sturge Zak Sturge 80' D 6.60
5 J. Cooper J. Cooper D 6.90
6
C. Taylor 1 ⚽ D 6.30
4
D 6.70
24 Casper De Norre Casper De Norre 85' M 6.60
49 Derek Mazou-Sacko Derek Mazou-Sacko M 6.50
7 Thierno Ballo Thierno Ballo 1 👟 80' M 7.00
10 Camiel Neghli Camiel Neghli 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.00
11 O. Azeez O. Azeez 1 ⚽ 85' M 8.20
19 Josh Coburn Josh Coburn 1 ⚽ 80' F 6.90
Bench
67 Barry Bannan Barry Bannan M
2 Danny McNamara Danny McNamara 10' D 6.70
25 Luke Cundle Luke Cundle 9' M 6.30
17 Macaulay Langstaff Macaulay Langstaff 9' F 6.30
9 Mihailo Ivanović Mihailo Ivanović 10' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
O. Azeez
O. Azeez
M · Millwall
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 19 pass
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli
M · Millwall
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 31 pass
G · Millwall
7.50
· 25 pass
S. N'Zonzi
M · Stoke
7.30
1 shots · 39 pass
Thierno Ballo
Thierno Ballo
M · Millwall
7.00
1 👟
2 shots · 13 pass
L. Cisse
F · Stoke
7.00
2 shots · 9 pass
Stoke City Stoke City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.70 — — — 34 15% — — —
E. Bocat D 90 6.50 — — 1 35 22% 3 — —
R. Otegbayo D 90 5.90 — — 1 34 26% 2 — —
A. Phillips D 90 6.00 — — — 22 17% — — —
S. Agina D 90 5.60 — — — 23 20% — — —
M 90 6.60 — — 1 34 27% 1 — —
S. N'Zonzi M 74 7.30 — — 1 39 30% 2 — —
S. Thomas M 90 6.70 — — — 29 19% — — —
L. Baker M 60 6.30 — — 1 22 16% — — —
M. Manhoef M 59 6.50 — — 1 18 14% — — —
R. Bozenik F 74 6.30 — — 1 8 6% — — —
B. Pearson M 16 6.90 — — — 12 11% 1 — —
L. Cisse F 30 7.00 — — 2 9 6% — — —
S. Gallagher F 31 6.70 — — — 4 2% — — —
Millwall Millwall — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.50 — — — 25 13% — — —
Zak Sturge D 80 6.60 — — — 24 20% 1 — —
J. Cooper D 90 6.90 — — — 54 43% 1 — —
C. Taylor D 90 6.30 1 — — 57 49% — — —
D 90 6.70 — — 1 43 27% — — —
Casper De Norre M 85 6.60 — — — 41 39% 2 1 —
Derek Mazou-Sacko M 90 6.50 — — — 43 35% — 1 —
Thierno Ballo M 80 7.00 — 1 2 13 9% 5 — —
Camiel Neghli M 90 8.00 1 1 1 31 23% — — —
O. Azeez M 85 8.20 1 — 3 19 14% 2 — —
Josh Coburn F 80 6.90 1 — 3 17 9% — — —
Danny McNamara D 10 6.70 — — — 2 2% — 1 —
Luke Cundle M 9 6.30 — — — 5 4% — — —
Macaulay Langstaff F 9 6.30 — — — 4 4% 1 — —
Mihailo Ivanović F 10 6.50 — — 1 1 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Stoke City vs Millwall?
The final score was Stoke City 1–3 Millwall.
What did the model predict before Stoke City vs Millwall?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Stoke City win, 28% to a draw, and 38% to an Millwall win.