Bundesliga · Championship Group - 29 April 26, 2026 17:00 Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz

Sturm Graz

#4 · 18 pts

1 – 1

Final score

Austria Vienna

#11 · 7 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Sturm Graz, result Draw

P. Koller (ast. G. Mamageishvili) 85'

54' (ast. Lee Tae-Seok) T. Plavotic

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sturm Graz a 61% win probability (draw 20%, Austria Vienna 17%). The final result was Sturm Graz 1–1 Austria Vienna. In 4 previous meetings, Sturm Graz have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Austria Vienna.

Match statistics

8

Total shots

6

5

Shots on target

3

1.08

Actual xG

1.13

2

Saves

4

61%

Possession

39%

4

Corners

3

15

Tackles

20

2

🟨 Yellow cards

2

Match Events

54'

ast. Lee Tae-Seok · T. Plavotic⚽

64'

F. Wustinger / P. Maybach ↕

↕ S. Jatta / A. Kayombo

67'

↕ M. Malone / R. Fosso

67'

A. Kayombo

70'

77'

V. Markovic / S. Saljic ↕

78'

J. Eggestein / M. Fischer ↕

80'

K. Boateng

↕ E. Karic / R. Wilson

81'

↕ E. Aiwu / J. Gazibegovic

81'

⚽P. Koller · ast. G. Mamageishvili

85'

90'+1

M. Schablas / Lee Tae-Seok ↕

90'+1

J. Handl / Lee Kang-Hee ↕

90'+3

J. Eggestein

J. Gazibegovic

90'+7

Pre-match prediction

61.9%

Sturm

20.31%

X ←

17.79%

Austria

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 20.31% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Sturm

2.29

1.08

-1.21

Austria

1.04

1.13

+0.09

xG dominance was balanced (1.08 – 1.13). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Rapid Vienna	10	27
2	Red Bull Salzburg	10	24
3	Lask Linz	10	19
4	Sturm Graz	10	18
5	Ried	10	15
6	TSV Hartberg	10	14
7	WSG Wattens	10	12
8	Grazer AK	10	10
9	SCR Altach	10	9
10	Austria Lustenau	10	8
11	Austria Vienna	10	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	10	5

Lineups

Sturm Graz 3-1-4-2

53 D. Khudyakov G 6.70

30 P. Koller 1 ⚽ D 8.90

47

E. Aiwu 80' D 6.20

5 A. Vallci D 7.30

4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M 7.00

17 E. Karić 81' M 7.00

15 G. Mamageishvili 1 👟 M 6.90

10 O. Kiteishvili M 7.60

43 Jacob Peter Hödl M 6.90

20 S. Jatta 67' F 6.30

77 M. Malone 68' F 7.00

Bench

11 A. Kayombo 31' F 6.30

22 J. Gazibegović 18' D 7.00

39 Luca Weinhandl M

80 Ryan Fosso 30' M 6.30

Austria Vienna 3-4-2-1

1 S. Şahin-Radlinger G 7.90

24 T. Plavotić 1 ⚽ D 7.90

15 A. Dragović D 6.30

28 P. Wiesinger D 6.60

17 Lee Tae-Seok 1 👟 M 7.60

6 Philipp Maybach 64' M 6.30

16 Lee Kang-Hee M 6.70

26 R. Ranftl M 6.70

20 S. Saljic 77' F 6.20

30 M. Fischer 77' F 7.00

14 K. Boateng F 5.70

Bench

19 J. Eggestein 21' F 6.50

46 J. Handl 7' D

36 V. Markovic 21' M 6.50

Best on the pitch

P. Koller

D · Sturm

8.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 56 pass

S. Şahin-Radlinger

G · Austria

7.90

· 31 pass

T. Plavotić

D · Austria

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 22 pass

O. Kiteishvili

M · Sturm

7.60

3 shots · 54 pass

Lee Tae-Seok

M · Austria

7.60

1 👟

1 shots · 20 pass

A. Vallci

D · Sturm

7.30

· 41 pass

Sturm Graz — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
D. Khudyakov	G	98	6.70	—	—	—	22	16%	—	—	—
P. Koller	D	98	8.90	1	—	1	56	38%	3	—	—
E. Aiwu	D	80	6.20	—	—	—	29	24%	—	—	—
A. Vallci	D	98	7.30	—	—	—	41	36%	2	—	—
J. Gorenc Stankovič	M	98	7.00	—	—	—	48	38%	1	—	—
E. Karić	M	81	7.00	—	—	—	46	31%	1	—	—
G. Mamageishvili	M	98	6.90	—	1	—	33	25%	3	—	—
O. Kiteishvili	M	98	7.60	—	—	3	54	37%	1	—	—
Jacob Peter Hödl	M	98	6.90	—	—	1	27	17%	1	—	—
S. Jatta	F	67	6.30	—	—	1	13	8%	2	—	—
M. Malone	F	68	7.00	—	—	2	16	11%	—	—	—
A. Kayombo	F	31	6.30	—	—	—	5	2%	—	1	—
J. Gazibegović	D	18	7.00	—	—	—	12	12%	—	1	—
Ryan Fosso	M	30	6.30	—	—	—	14	10%	1	—	—

Austria Vienna — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
S. Şahin-Radlinger	G	98	7.90	—	—	—	31	11%	—	—	—
T. Plavotić	D	98	7.90	1	—	1	22	14%	2	—	—
A. Dragović	D	98	6.30	—	—	1	21	14%	1	—	—
P. Wiesinger	D	98	6.60	—	—	—	34	18%	3	—	—
Lee Tae-Seok	M	91	7.60	—	1	1	20	12%	4	—	—
Philipp Maybach	M	64	6.30	—	—	—	10	6%	2	—	—
Lee Kang-Hee	M	91	6.70	—	—	—	22	16%	1	—	—
R. Ranftl	M	98	6.70	—	—	—	27	16%	2	—	—
S. Saljic	F	77	6.20	—	—	1	14	10%	2	—	—
M. Fischer	F	77	7.00	—	—	1	21	16%	—	—	—
K. Boateng	F	98	5.70	—	—	1	23	9%	2	1	—
J. Eggestein	F	21	6.50	—	—	—	8	3%	—	1	—
J. Handl	D	7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
V. Markovic	M	21	6.50	—	—	—	1	—	1	—	—