Skip to main content
← Europa League
Europa League · League Stage - 4 November 05, 2026 21:00 Merkur-Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz
#24 · 4 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Celje
#25 · 4 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Sturm Graz, result Celje wins
Oumar Diakité 40'
Oumar Diakité (ast. Gizo Mamageishvili) 90'+3
29' Svit Seslar
45' (ast. Milot Avdyli) Benjamin Verbič
73' Svit Seslar
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sturm Graz a 60% win probability (draw 22%, Celje 16%). The final result was Sturm Graz 2–3 Celje.

Match statistics
29
Total shots
8
7
Shots on target
7
2.90
Actual xG
1.27
4
Saves
5
62%
Possession
38%
12
Corners
2
12
Tackles
19
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
17'
Artemijus Tutyskinas
29'
Svit Seslar⚽
⚽Oumar Diakité
40'
45'
ast. Milot Avdyli · Benjamin Verbič⚽
58'
Mario Kvesić / Benjamin Verbič ↕
58'
Žan Žužek / Papa Daniel ↕
↕ Valmir Matoshi / Jacob Peter Hödl
58'
66'
Blaž Kramer / Veton Tusha ↕
Oumar Diakité
69'
73'
Svit Seslar⚽
↕ Arjan Malić / Belmin Beganovic
74'
78'
Darko Hrka / A. Kučys ↕
↕ Simon Seidl / Gizo Mamageishvili
85'
90'+2
Milot Avdyli
⚽Oumar Diakité · ast. Gizo Mamageishvili
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
60.79%
Sturm
22.61%
X
16.61%
Celje ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Celje) 16.61% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Sturm
1.40
2.90
+1.5
Celje
0.73
1.27
+0.54
Sturm Graz dominated by xG (2.90 vs 1.27). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Benfica Benfica 4 12
2 Bournemouth Bournemouth 4 12
3 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 4 12
4 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 4 10
5 Juventus Juventus 4 10
6 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 4 10
7 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4 9
8 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 4 7
9 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4 7
10 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 4 7
11 Sunderland Sunderland 4 7
12 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 4 7
13 Lyon Lyon 4 7
14 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4 6
15 Anderlecht Anderlecht 4 6
16 OFI OFI 4 6
17 Rennes Rennes 4 6
18 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 4 6
19 Torreense Torreense 4 6
20 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 4 5
21 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 4 5
22 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 4 4
23 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 4 4
24 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4 4
25 Celje Celje 4 4
26 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 4 4
27 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 4 3
28 AC Milan AC Milan 4 3
29 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 4 3
30 Plzen Plzen 4 3
31 Marseille Marseille 4 3
32 Celtic Celtic 4 3
33 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 4 1
34 Lillestrom Lillestrom 4 1
35 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 4 1
36 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 4 0
Lineups
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-4-3
22 A. Helac A. Helac G 6.51
30 P. Koller P. Koller D 6.01
2 J. Quarshie J. Quarshie D 6.23
23 A. Malic A. Malic 74' D 6.10
27 L. Balbo L. Balbo M 5.77
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič J. Gorenc Stankovič M 6.07
39 Luca Weinhandl Luca Weinhandl M 6.38
28 J. Heil J. Heil M 5.65
78 V. Matoshi V. Matoshi 58' F 6.31
14 O. Diakité O. Diakité 2 ⚽ F 8.24
19 S. Seidl S. Seidl 85' F 7.20
Bench
11 A. Kayombo A. Kayombo F 0.00
5 A. Vallci A. Vallci D 0.00
26 B. Beganović B. Beganović 16' F 6.68
41 E. Lorenz E. Lorenz G 0.00
15 G. Mamageishvili G. Mamageishvili 1 👟 5' M 6.34
43 Jacob Peter Hödl Jacob Peter Hödl 32' M 5.85
40 J. Halwachs J. Halwachs M 0.00
38 Jonas Peinhart Jonas Peinhart F 0.00
25 M. Grgic M. Grgic M 0.00
21 P. Petrović P. Petrović D 0.00
Celje Celje 4-3-3
1 Žan-Luk Leban Žan-Luk Leban G 7.18
11 M. Avdyli M. Avdyli 1 👟 D 6.34
6 A. Tutyškinas A. Tutyškinas D 6.19
44 Ł. Bejger Ł. Bejger D 6.48
2 P. Širvys P. Širvys D 6.40
10 S. Sešlar S. Sešlar 2 ⚽ M 8.81
19 M. Zabukovnik M. Zabukovnik M 6.17
13 Papa Mustapha Daniel Papa Mustapha Daniel 58' M 6.82
7 B. Verbič B. Verbič 1 ⚽ 58' F 8.20
47 A. Kučys A. Kučys 78' F 6.31
25 V. Tusha V. Tusha 66' F 5.92
Bench
20 A. Dionkou A. Dionkou D 0.00
9 B. Kramer B. Kramer 24' F 6.65
4 D. Hrka D. Hrka 12' M 6.12
31 D. Suhovrsnik D. Suhovrsnik F 0.00
12 L. Kolar L. Kolar G 0.00
33 L. Koútris L. Koútris D 0.00
77 M. Ivanšek M. Ivanšek F 0.00
8 M. Kvesić M. Kvesić 32' M 6.02
91 Y. Dukuly Y. Dukuly F 0.00
23 Ž. Frelih Ž. Frelih G 0.00
15 Ž. Žužek Ž. Žužek 32' D 6.41
Best on the pitch
S. Sešlar
S. Sešlar
M · Celje
8.81
2 ⚽
2 shots · 37 pass
O. Diakité
O. Diakité
F · Sturm
8.24
2 ⚽
8 shots · 14 pass
B. Verbič
B. Verbič
F · Celje
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 13 pass
S. Seidl
S. Seidl
F · Sturm
7.20
5 shots · 35 pass
Žan-Luk Leban
Žan-Luk Leban
G · Celje
7.18
· 36 pass
Papa Mustapha Daniel
Papa Mustapha Daniel
M · Celje
6.82
· 24 pass
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Helac G 90 6.51 — — 0 24 21% 0 — —
P. Koller D 90 6.01 — — 0 59 49% 1 — —
J. Quarshie D 90 6.23 — — 1 80 72% 1 — —
A. Malic D 74 6.10 — — 0 60 53% 2 — —
L. Balbo M 90 5.77 — — 3 32 23% 1 — —
J. Gorenc Stankovič M 90 6.07 — — 5 59 47% 2 — —
Luca Weinhandl M 90 6.38 — — 3 34 28% 2 — —
J. Heil M 90 5.65 — — 0 59 43% 1 — —
V. Matoshi F 58 6.31 — — 2 10 6% 0 — —
O. Diakité F 90 8.24 2 — 8 14 14% 0 1 —
S. Seidl F 85 7.20 — — 5 35 29% 0 — —
B. Beganović F 16 6.68 — — 1 7 7% 0 — —
G. Mamageishvili M 5 6.34 — 1 1 1 1% 0 — —
Jacob Peter Hödl M 32 5.85 — — 0 17 12% 2 — —
Celje Celje — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Žan-Luk Leban G 90 7.18 — — 0 36 21% 0 — —
M. Avdyli D 90 6.34 — 1 0 37 26% 2 1 —
A. Tutyškinas D 90 6.19 — — 0 37 28% 3 1 —
Ł. Bejger D 90 6.48 — — 0 28 24% 1 — —
P. Širvys D 90 6.40 — — 0 26 23% 2 — —
S. Sešlar M 90 8.81 2 — 2 37 25% 4 — —
M. Zabukovnik M 90 6.17 — — 0 31 26% 2 — —
Papa Mustapha Daniel M 58 6.82 — — 0 24 21% 0 — —
B. Verbič F 58 8.20 1 — 2 13 8% 1 — —
A. Kučys F 78 6.31 — — 2 17 10% 1 — —
V. Tusha F 66 5.92 — — 1 16 11% 0 — —
B. Kramer F 24 6.65 — — 1 8 3% 0 — —
D. Hrka M 12 6.12 — — 0 1 0% 1 — —
M. Kvesić M 32 6.02 — — 0 12 8% 2 — —
Ž. Žužek D 32 6.41 — — 0 9 9% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Celje?
The final score was Sturm Graz 2–3 Celje.
What did the model predict before Sturm Graz vs Celje?
The model assigned 60% probability to a Sturm Graz win, 22% to a draw, and 16% to an Celje win.