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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9 October 18, 2026 17:00 Merkur-Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz
#4 · 18 pts
6 – 1
Final score
Grazer AK
#8 · 10 pts
Luca Weinhandl (ast. Valmir Matoshi) 37'
Jurgen Heil (ast. Luis Balbo) 39'
Oumar Diakité 41'
Oumar Diakité (ast. Simon Seidl) 49'
Oumar Diakité (ast. Simon Seidl) 51'
Jon Gorenc Stanković (ast. Simon Seidl) 75'
10' (ast. Yannick Oberleitner) Christopher Cvetko
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sturm Graz a 47% win probability (draw 26%, Grazer AK 26%). The final result was Sturm Graz 6–1 Grazer AK. In 2 previous meetings, Sturm Graz have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Grazer AK.

Match statistics
24
Total shots
12
10
Shots on target
3
3.33
Actual xG
0.62
2
Saves
4
55%
Possession
45%
7
Corners
2
11
Tackles
22
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
10'
ast. Yannick Oberleitner · Christopher Cvetko⚽
↕ Daniil Khudyakov / Ammar Helac
28'
⚽Luca Weinhandl · ast. Valmir Matoshi
37'
⚽Jurgen Heil · ast. Luis Balbo
39'
⚽Oumar Diakité
41'
45'+7
45'
Mark Große / Christian Lichtenberger ↕
45'
Tim Trummer / Anderson Dos Santos Gomes ↕
48'
Mark Große
⚽Oumar Diakité · ast. Simon Seidl
49'
⚽Oumar Diakité · ast. Simon Seidl
51'
Oumar Diakité
52'
53'
Alexander Hofleitner
↕ Joshua Quarshie / Jacob Peter Hödl
59'
↕ Luis Balbo / Albert Vallci
59'
↕ Oumar Diakité / Szymon Wlodarczyk
60'
↕ Luca Weinhandl / Julian Halwachs
72'
⚽Jon Gorenc Stanković · ast. Simon Seidl
75'
76'
Tobias Koch / Christopher Cvetko ↕
76'
Souleyman mandey / Leon Klassen ↕
Julian Halwachs
82'
Pre-match prediction
47.36%
Sturm ←
26.17%
X
26.47%
Grazer
we assigned to the actual result (Sturm Graz) 47.36% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Sturm
2.07
3.33
+1.26
Grazer
1.11
0.62
-0.49
Sturm Graz dominated by xG (3.33 vs 0.62). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 10 27
2 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 10 24
3 Lask Linz Lask Linz 10 19
4 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 10 18
5 Ried Ried 10 15
6 TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 10 14
7 WSG Wattens WSG Wattens 10 12
8 Grazer AK Grazer AK 10 10
9 SCR Altach SCR Altach 10 9
10 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 10 8
11 Austria Vienna Austria Vienna 10 7
12 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 10 5
Lineups
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1
53 D. Khudyakov D. Khudyakov 28' G 6.22
30 P. Koller P. Koller D 6.17
2 J. Quarshie J. Quarshie 59' D 5.96
23 A. Malic A. Malic D 6.29
27 L. Balbo L. Balbo 1 👟 59' M 6.79
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič J. Gorenc Stankovič 1 ⚽ M 7.95
39 Luca Weinhandl Luca Weinhandl 1 ⚽ 72' M 7.10
28 J. Heil J. Heil 1 ⚽ M 7.17
78 V. Matoshi V. Matoshi 1 👟 M 7.02
19 S. Seidl S. Seidl 3 👟 M 9.08
14 O. Diakité O. Diakité 3 ⚽ 60' F 9.43
Bench
22 A. Helac A. Helac 62' G 5.83
11 A. Kayombo A. Kayombo F 0.00
5 A. Vallci A. Vallci 31' D 6.29
26 B. Beganović B. Beganović F 0.00
43 Jacob Peter Hödl Jacob Peter Hödl 31' M 6.29
40 J. Halwachs J. Halwachs 18' M 6.21
35 N. Geyrhofer N. Geyrhofer D 0.00
21 P. Petrović P. Petrović D 0.00
17 S. Włodarczyk S. Włodarczyk 30' F 6.53
Grazer AK Grazer AK 3-4-2-1
23 C. Stanković C. Stanković G 6.54
82 B. Owusu B. Owusu D 5.19
21 M. Sollbauer M. Sollbauer D 5.71
27 Y. Oberleitner Y. Oberleitner 1 👟 D 5.96
32 L. Klassen L. Klassen 76' M 5.26
24 C. Cvetko C. Cvetko 1 ⚽ 76' M 6.84
34 P. Michorl P. Michorl M 6.20
28 Anderson Anderson 46' M 5.88
10 C. Lichtenberger C. Lichtenberger 45' M 5.95
14 J. Italiano J. Italiano M 5.72
25 A. Hofleitner A. Hofleitner F 6.31
Bench
26 C. Nicht C. Nicht G 0.00
9 D. Maderner D. Maderner F 0.00
3 L. Vraa-Jensen L. Vraa-Jensen D 0.00
48 M. Gragger M. Gragger D 0.00
11 M. Große M. Große 44' F 5.64
72 Petar Markovic Petar Markovic D 0.00
17 S. Mandey S. Mandey 14' M 5.85
8 T. Koch T. Koch 14' M 5.79
37 T. Trummer T. Trummer 44' M 5.40
Best on the pitch
O. Diakité
O. Diakité
F · Sturm
9.43
3 ⚽
6 shots · 11 pass
S. Seidl
S. Seidl
M · Sturm
9.08
3 👟
5 shots · 25 pass
J. Gorenc Stankovič
J. Gorenc Stankovič
M · Sturm
7.95
1 ⚽
2 shots · 27 pass
J. Heil
J. Heil
M · Sturm
7.17
1 ⚽
1 shots · 35 pass
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl
M · Sturm
7.10
1 ⚽
2 shots · 20 pass
V. Matoshi
V. Matoshi
M · Sturm
7.02
1 👟
2 shots · 23 pass
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Khudyakov G 28 6.22 — — 0 10 2% 0 — —
P. Koller D 90 6.17 — — 2 31 20% 0 — —
J. Quarshie D 59 5.96 — — 1 21 11% 1 — —
A. Malic D 90 6.29 — — 1 45 33% 1 — —
L. Balbo M 59 6.79 — 1 1 10 5% 2 — —
J. Gorenc Stankovič M 90 7.95 1 — 2 27 19% 3 — —
Luca Weinhandl M 72 7.10 1 — 2 20 12% 1 — —
J. Heil M 90 7.17 1 — 1 35 23% 2 — —
V. Matoshi M 90 7.02 — 1 2 23 18% 1 — —
S. Seidl M 90 9.08 — 3 5 25 19% 0 — —
O. Diakité F 60 9.43 3 — 6 11 7% 0 1 —
A. Helac G 62 5.83 — — 0 22 12% 0 — —
A. Vallci D 31 6.29 — — 0 9 6% 0 — —
Jacob Peter Hödl M 31 6.29 — — 0 10 8% 0 — —
J. Halwachs M 18 6.21 — — 0 10 8% 0 1 —
S. Włodarczyk F 30 6.53 — — 1 7 2% 0 — —
Grazer AK Grazer AK — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
C. Stanković G 90 6.54 — — 0 40 20% 0 — —
B. Owusu D 90 5.19 — — 0 27 11% 4 — —
M. Sollbauer D 90 5.71 — — 1 18 10% 0 — —
Y. Oberleitner D 90 5.96 — 1 0 29 20% 5 — —
L. Klassen M 76 5.26 — — 2 22 10% 2 — —
C. Cvetko M 76 6.84 1 — 3 20 14% 1 — —
P. Michorl M 90 6.20 — — 2 18 15% 3 — —
Anderson M 46 5.88 — — 0 5 1% 0 — —
C. Lichtenberger M 45 5.95 — — 1 7 5% 2 — —
J. Italiano M 90 5.72 — — 1 15 5% 3 — —
A. Hofleitner F 90 6.31 — — 0 24 11% 0 1 —
M. Große F 44 5.64 — — 2 14 9% 0 1 —
S. Mandey M 14 5.85 — — 0 5 4% 1 — —
T. Koch M 14 5.79 — — 0 6 4% 0 — —
T. Trummer M 44 5.40 — — 0 10 7% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
The final score was Sturm Graz 6–1 Grazer AK.
What did the model predict before Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
The model assigned 47% probability to a Sturm Graz win, 26% to a draw, and 26% to an Grazer AK win.