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Bundesliga · Championship Group - 28 April 22, 2026 20:30 Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz
Sturm Graz
#4 · 18 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Lask Linz
#3 · 19 pts
O. Kiteishvili 77' (pen.)
52' (ast. S. Horvath) M. Usor
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sturm Graz a 40% win probability (draw 23%, Lask Linz 35%). The final result was Sturm Graz 1–1 Lask Linz. In 4 previous meetings, Sturm Graz have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Lask Linz.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
8
3
Shots on target
5
1.89
Actual xG
0.82
4
Saves
2
72%
Possession
28%
7
Corners
5
15
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
5
0
🟥 Red cards
2
Match Events
6'
Alemao
18'
Alemao
18'
Alemao
46'
X. Mbuyamba / S. Kalajdzic ↕
↕ A. Malic / J. Gazibegovic
46'
52'
ast. S. Horvath · M. Usor⚽
S. Jatta
56'
58'
S. Adeniran
↕ E. Aiwu / G. Mamageishvili
66'
67'
S. Adeniran
67'
S. Adeniran
A. Vallci
67'
69'
M. Cisse
72'
G. Bello / M. Usor ↕
J. Mitchell
77'
⚽O. Kiteishvili (pen.)
77'
↕ S. Jatta / R. Wilson
85'
88'
L. Kacavenda / I. Coulibaly ↕
90'+4
K. Cheikne / S. Horvath ↕
Pre-match prediction
40.8%
Sturm
23.5%
X ←
35.7%
Lask
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 23.5% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Sturm
1.80
1.89
+0.09
Lask
1.72
0.82
-0.9
Sturm Graz dominated by xG (1.89 vs 0.82). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 10 27
2 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 10 24
3 Lask Linz Lask Linz 10 19
4 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 10 18
5 Ried Ried 10 15
6 TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 10 14
7 WSG Wattens WSG Wattens 10 12
8 Grazer AK Grazer AK 10 10
9 SCR Altach SCR Altach 10 9
10 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 10 8
11 Austria Vienna Austria Vienna 10 7
12 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 10 5
Lineups
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1
53 D. Khudyakov D. Khudyakov G 7.20
30 P. Koller P. Koller D 7.20
47
E. Aiwu 66' D 6.70
5 A. Vallci A. Vallci D 6.90
17 E. Karić E. Karić M 7.30
80 Ryan Fosso Ryan Fosso M 6.50
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič J. Gorenc Stankovič M 6.90
23 A. Malic A. Malic 45' M 6.60
77 M. Malone M. Malone F 7.20
10 O. Kiteishvili O. Kiteishvili 1 ⚽ F 7.90
20 S. Jatta S. Jatta 85' F 6.60
Bench
11 A. Kayombo A. Kayombo F
15 G. Mamageishvili G. Mamageishvili 24' M 7.30
22 J. Gazibegović J. Gazibegović 45' D 6.70
2 J. Mitchell J. Mitchell D
39 Luca Weinhandl Luca Weinhandl M
Lask Linz Lask Linz 3-4-1-2
1
G 7.00
16 A. Andrade A. Andrade D 6.50
43 Alemão Alemão 18' D 3.70
48 M. Cissé M. Cissé D 6.90
6 M. Bogarde M. Bogarde M 6.60
30 S. Horvath S. Horvath 1 👟 89' M 7.00
4 Ismaila Coulibaly Ismaila Coulibaly 88' M 6.20
20 K. Jørgensen K. Jørgensen M 6.30
10 S. Kalajdzic S. Kalajdzic 45' F 6.60
7 S. Adeniran S. Adeniran 67' F 5.70
8 M. Usor M. Usor 1 ⚽ 72' F 8.00
Bench
27 C. Lang C. Lang F
2 G. Bello G. Bello 18' D 6.30
11 M. Entrup M. Entrup F
3 X. Mbuyamba X. Mbuyamba 45' D 6.90
Best on the pitch
M. Usor
M. Usor
F · Lask
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 11 pass
O. Kiteishvili
O. Kiteishvili
F · Sturm
7.90
1 ⚽
5 shots · 60 pass
G. Mamageishvili
G. Mamageishvili
M · Sturm
7.30
· 15 pass
E. Karić
E. Karić
M · Sturm
7.30
· 77 pass
D. Khudyakov
D. Khudyakov
G · Sturm
7.20
· 22 pass
P. Koller
P. Koller
D · Sturm
7.20
1 shots · 64 pass
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Khudyakov G 90 7.20 — — — 22 19% — — —
P. Koller D 90 7.20 — — 1 64 59% 1 — —
E. Aiwu D 66 6.70 — — — 32 30% 2 — —
A. Vallci D 90 6.90 — — — 61 52% 3 1 —
E. Karić M 90 7.30 — — — 77 63% 2 — —
Ryan Fosso M 90 6.50 — — — 36 29% — — —
J. Gorenc Stankovič M 90 6.90 — — 2 45 39% — — —
A. Malic M 45 6.60 — — — 10 8% — — —
M. Malone F 90 7.20 — — 2 10 8% 2 — —
O. Kiteishvili F 90 7.90 1 — 5 60 51% — — —
S. Jatta F 85 6.60 — — 2 12 9% 1 1 —
G. Mamageishvili M 24 7.30 — — — 15 13% — — —
J. Gazibegović D 45 6.70 — — 1 22 16% 4 — —
Lask Linz Lask Linz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.00 — — — 27 10% — — —
A. Andrade D 90 6.50 — — — 16 10% — — —
Alemão D 18 3.70 — — — 7 7% 1 2 1
M. Cissé D 90 6.90 — — — 17 11% 2 1 —
M. Bogarde M 90 6.60 — — — 19 13% 3 — —
S. Horvath M 89 7.00 — 1 — 26 23% — — —
Ismaila Coulibaly M 88 6.20 — — 1 10 10% 1 — —
K. Jørgensen M 90 6.30 — — 2 17 9% 1 — —
S. Kalajdzic F 45 6.60 — — — 11 5% 2 — —
S. Adeniran F 67 5.70 — — 2 12 5% 1 2 1
M. Usor F 72 8.00 1 — 2 11 8% 1 — —
G. Bello D 18 6.30 — — — 2 1% — — —
X. Mbuyamba D 45 6.90 — — 1 8 5% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
The final score was Sturm Graz 1–1 Lask Linz.
What did the model predict before Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Sturm Graz win, 23% to a draw, and 35% to an Lask Linz win.