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Europa League · League Stage - 3 October 22, 2026 18:45 Merkur-Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz
#24 · 4 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Marseille
#31 · 3 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Sturm Graz
Oumar Diakité (ast. Luca Weinhandl) 13'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sturm Graz a 61% win probability (draw 17%, Marseille 21%). The final result was Sturm Graz 1–0 Marseille.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
13
5
Shots on target
1
1.47
Actual xG
0.73
1
Saves
4
29%
Possession
71%
2
Corners
4
12
Tackles
17
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Oumar Diakité · ast. Luca Weinhandl
13'
24'
Angel Gomes
Oumar Diakité
32'
45'
Himad Abdelli / Angel Gomes ↕
45'
Igor Paixão / Neal Maupay ↕
↕ Oumar Diakité / Belmin Beganovic
45'
Luca Weinhandl
63'
65'
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg / Geoffrey Kondogbia ↕
65'
CJ Egan-Riley / Nayef Aguerd ↕
80'
Amine Gouiri
83'
Timothy Weah / Kelyann Bezahaf ↕
Arjan Malić
84'
↕ Jacob Peter Hödl / Albert Vallci
87'
90'+1
Bamo Meite
↕ Valmir Matoshi / Julian Halwachs
90'
Pre-match prediction
61.34%
Sturm ←
17.45%
X
21.21%
Marseille
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Sturm Graz) 61.34% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Sturm
3.33
1.47
-1.86
Marseille
1.42
0.73
-0.69
Sturm Graz dominated by xG (1.47 vs 0.73). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Benfica Benfica 4 12
2 Bournemouth Bournemouth 4 12
3 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 4 12
4 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 4 10
5 Juventus Juventus 4 10
6 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 4 10
7 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4 9
8 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 4 7
9 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4 7
10 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 4 7
11 Sunderland Sunderland 4 7
12 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 4 7
13 Lyon Lyon 4 7
14 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4 6
15 Anderlecht Anderlecht 4 6
16 OFI OFI 4 6
17 Rennes Rennes 4 6
18 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 4 6
19 Torreense Torreense 4 6
20 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 4 5
21 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 4 5
22 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 4 4
23 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 4 4
24 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4 4
25 Celje Celje 4 4
26 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 4 4
27 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 4 3
28 AC Milan AC Milan 4 3
29 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 4 3
30 Plzen Plzen 4 3
31 Marseille Marseille 4 3
32 Celtic Celtic 4 3
33 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 4 1
34 Lillestrom Lillestrom 4 1
35 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 4 1
36 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 4 0
Lineups
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-4-1-2
22 A. Helac A. Helac G 6.45
30 P. Koller P. Koller D 6.77
2 J. Quarshie J. Quarshie D 7.19
23 A. Malic A. Malic D 6.68
27 L. Balbo L. Balbo M 6.37
78 V. Matoshi V. Matoshi 89' M 6.86
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič J. Gorenc Stankovič M 6.63
43 Jacob Peter Hödl Jacob Peter Hödl 87' M 6.19
39 Luca Weinhandl Luca Weinhandl 1 👟 M 7.44
14 O. Diakité O. Diakité 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.61
19 S. Seidl S. Seidl F 6.42
Bench
11 A. Kayombo A. Kayombo F 0.00
5 A. Vallci A. Vallci 3' D 6.96
26 B. Beganović B. Beganović 45' F 6.62
32 C. Wiener-Pucher C. Wiener-Pucher G 0.00
41 E. Lorenz E. Lorenz G 0.00
40 J. Halwachs J. Halwachs 1' M 0.00
25 M. Grgic M. Grgic M 0.00
21 P. Petrović P. Petrović D 0.00
Marseille Marseille 4-2-3-1
12 J. de Lange J. de Lange G 7.30
25 U. Garcia U. Garcia D 7.26
21 N. Aguerd N. Aguerd 65' D 7.04
18 B. Meité B. Meité D 6.22
74 K. Bezahaf K. Bezahaf 83' D 6.09
19 G. Kondogbia G. Kondogbia 65' M 6.51
42
M 0.00
9 A. Gouiri A. Gouiri M 6.49
7 A. Gomes A. Gomes 45' M 6.24
48 K. Abdallah K. Abdallah M 5.92
11 N. Maupay N. Maupay 45' F 6.30
Bench
77 A. Harit A. Harit M 0.00
4 C. Egan-Riley C. Egan-Riley 25' D 6.83
33 Emerson Emerson D 0.00
8 H. Abdelli H. Abdelli 45' M 6.66
14 Igor Paixão Igor Paixão 45' F 6.63
40 J. Van Neck J. Van Neck G 0.00
23 P. Højbjerg P. Højbjerg 25' M 7.04
43 T. Mmadi T. Mmadi F 0.00
6 T. Nnadi T. Nnadi M 0.00
22 T. Weah T. Weah 7' F 6.29
Best on the pitch
O. Diakité
O. Diakité
F · Sturm
7.61
1 ⚽
2 shots · 7 pass
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl
M · Sturm
7.44
1 👟
1 shots · 26 pass
J. de Lange
J. de Lange
G · Marseille
7.30
· 60 pass
U. Garcia
U. Garcia
D · Marseille
7.26
· 62 pass
J. Quarshie
J. Quarshie
D · Sturm
7.19
· 24 pass
N. Aguerd
N. Aguerd
D · Marseille
7.04
1 shots · 76 pass
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Helac G 90 6.45 — — 0 25 12% 0 — —
P. Koller D 90 6.77 — — 1 30 18% 0 — —
J. Quarshie D 90 7.19 — — 0 24 20% 0 — —
A. Malic D 90 6.68 — — 0 43 31% 3 1 —
L. Balbo M 90 6.37 — — 1 16 9% 2 — —
V. Matoshi M 89 6.86 — — 2 22 14% 1 — —
J. Gorenc Stankovič M 90 6.63 — — 1 24 20% 0 — —
Jacob Peter Hödl M 87 6.19 — — 1 17 8% 1 — —
Luca Weinhandl M 90 7.44 — 1 1 26 18% 3 1 —
O. Diakité F 45 7.61 1 — 2 7 7% 0 1 —
S. Seidl F 90 6.42 — — 2 23 14% 1 — —
A. Vallci D 3 6.96 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
B. Beganović F 45 6.62 — — 2 13 10% 1 — —
J. Halwachs M 1 0.00 — — 0 1 1% 0 — —
Marseille Marseille — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. de Lange G 90 7.30 — — 0 60 46% 0 — —
U. Garcia D 90 7.26 — — 0 62 58% 7 — —
N. Aguerd D 65 7.04 — — 1 76 69% 1 — —
B. Meité D 90 6.22 — — 0 76 74% 1 1 —
K. Bezahaf D 83 6.09 — — 0 58 52% 2 — —
G. Kondogbia M 65 6.51 — — 1 41 37% 1 — —
M 0 0.00 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
A. Gouiri M 90 6.49 — — 1 28 25% 3 1 —
A. Gomes M 45 6.24 — — 1 12 9% 0 1 —
K. Abdallah M 90 5.92 — — 3 49 39% 1 — —
N. Maupay F 45 6.30 — — 2 16 10% 0 — —
C. Egan-Riley D 25 6.83 — — 0 31 29% 1 — —
H. Abdelli M 45 6.66 — — 0 39 35% 0 — —
Igor Paixão F 45 6.63 — — 4 27 25% 0 — —
P. Højbjerg M 25 7.04 — — 0 36 34% 0 — —
T. Weah F 7 6.29 — — 0 10 9% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
The final score was Sturm Graz 1–0 Marseille.
What did the model predict before Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Sturm Graz win, 17% to a draw, and 21% to an Marseille win.