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Sturm Graz - Marseille

Europa League October 22, 2026 18:45
Sturm Graz
#17 · 1 pts
vs
Marseille
#32 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
51.49%
Win
Sturm Graz
22.23%
Draw
26.28%
Win
Marseille
2.87
Expected xG
1.77

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.44%)
1X2 Result
1 51%
X 22%
2 26%
Double Chance ✓ 100.0% hit rate (14 picks)
1X 74%
X2 49%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 73%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Sturm Graz a 51% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 26% for Marseille. Expected goals are 2.9 for Sturm Graz and 1.8 for Marseille (total 4.6), with a 86% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.44% probability.

Season Stats

Sturm Graz
2W 2D 5L
Marseille
0W 0D 1L
Averages per game
0.6
Goals
1.0
1.2
Conceded
4.0
3.2
Shots OT
3.0
3.0
Corners
3.0
44%
Poss.
46%
Percentages
56%
O 1.5
100%
44%
O 2.5
100%
33%
BTTS
100%
33%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 9 matches in Europa League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Sturm Graz
2W 2D 1L · at home
Marseille
0W 0D 1L · away
0.6
gls/g
1.0
0.4
Conceded
4.0
40%
Win %
0%
80%
Win or Draw
0%
20%
O 1.5
100%
20%
O 2.5
100%
0%
O 3.5
100%
20%
BTTS
100%
60%
Clean Sht
0%
60%
Failed to Score
0%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Sturm Graz Marseille →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
1 2.8% 4.9% 4.3% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
2 4.0% 7.0% 6.2% 3.7% 1.6% 0.6%
3 3.8% 6.7% 6.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6%
4 2.7% 4.8% 4.3% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
5 1.6% 2.8% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Recent form

Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
D Rennes 0–0
W Brann 1–0
L Feyenoord 3–0
L FK Crvena Zvezda 0–1
L Panathinaikos 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
Marseille Marseille
L Beşiktaş 4–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 18%

Playing profile

Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
Attack
39
Defence
57
Form
39
Marseille Marseille
Attack
41
Defence
46
Form
23
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Juventus Juventus 1 3
2 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1 3
3 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 1 3
4 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1 3
5 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 1 3
6 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 1 3
7 Benfica Benfica 1 3
8 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1 3
9 OFI OFI 1 3
10 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1 3
11 Lyon Lyon 1 3
12 Torreense Torreense 1 3
13 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 1 3
14 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 1 3
15 Sunderland Sunderland 1 3
16 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 1 3
17 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1 1
18 Rennes Rennes 1 1
19 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1 1
20 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 1 1
21 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 1 0
22 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1 0
23 Anderlecht Anderlecht 1 0
24 Lillestrom Lillestrom 1 0
25 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1 0
26 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1 0
27 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 1 0
28 Celtic Celtic 1 0
29 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 1 0
30 AC Milan AC Milan 1 0
31 Celje Celje 1 0
32 Marseille Marseille 1 0
33 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 1 0
34 Plzen Plzen 1 0
35 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1 0
36 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
The model gives Sturm Graz a 51% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 26% for an Marseille win.
How many goals are expected in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Expected goals: Sturm Graz 2.9, Marseille 1.8 (total 4.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 86%.
What is the most likely score in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.44%.