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Bundesliga · Championship Group - 32 May 17, 2026 14:30 Merkur-Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz
#4 · 8 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Rapid Vienna
#2 · 15 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Sturm Graz
G. Mamageishvili (ast. J. Gazibegovic) 88'
S. Hierlander 90'+1
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sturm Graz a 63% win probability (draw 18%, Rapid Vienna 18%). The final result was Sturm Graz 2–0 Rapid Vienna. In 4 previous meetings, Sturm Graz have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 3 wins for Rapid Vienna.

Match statistics
21
Total shots
3
8
Shots on target
1
2.17
Actual xG
0.19
1
Saves
6
67%
Possession
33%
9
Corners
3
10
Tackles
15
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
22'
Y. Demir
60'
L. Grgic / P. Dahl ↕
60'
A. Ahoussou / N. Wurmbrand ↕
↕ M. Malone / A. Kayombo
62'
↕ L. Weinhandl / G. Mamageishvili
62'
↕ J. Hodl / J. Gazibegovic
72'
↕ S. Jatta / B. Beganovic
72'
↕ E. Karic / S. Hierlander
84'
86'
T. Gulliksen / A. Weimann ↕
⚽G. Mamageishvili · ast. J. Gazibegovic
88'
⚽S. Hierlander
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
63.43%
Sturm ←
18.32%
X
18.25%
Rapid
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Sturm Graz) 63.43% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Sturm
2.46
2.17
-0.29
Rapid
1.19
0.19
-1.0
Sturm Graz dominated by xG (2.17 vs 0.19). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Lask Linz Lask Linz 5 15
2 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 6 15
3 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 6 14
4 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 5 8
5 WSG Wattens WSG Wattens 6 8
6 TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 6 7
7 Grazer AK Grazer AK 6 7
8 Austria Vienna Austria Vienna 6 6
9 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 6 5
10 Ried Ried 6 5
11 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 6 5
12 SCR Altach SCR Altach 6 3
Lineups
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-4-1-2
53 D. Khudyakov D. Khudyakov G 7.20
30 P. Koller P. Koller D 7.20
2 J. Mitchell J. Mitchell D 7.20
5 A. Vallci A. Vallci D 6.90
17 E. Karić E. Karić 84' M 7.30
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič J. Gorenc Stankovič M 7.20
39 Luca Weinhandl Luca Weinhandl 62' M 6.30
43 Jacob Peter Hödl Jacob Peter Hödl 72' M 6.90
10 O. Kiteishvili O. Kiteishvili F 7.70
20 S. Jatta S. Jatta 72' F 6.60
77 M. Malone M. Malone 62' F 6.20
Bench
23 A. Malic A. Malic D
11 Axel Kayombo Axel Kayombo 28' F 6.30
26 B. Beganović B. Beganović 18' F 6.50
8
Filip Rózga M
15 G. Mamageishvili G. Mamageishvili 1 ⚽ 28' M 7.60
22 Jusuf Gazibegović Jusuf Gazibegović 1 👟 18' D 7.20
40 Matteo Bignetti Matteo Bignetti G
80 R. Fosso R. Fosso M
25 Stefan Hierländer Stefan Hierländer 1 ⚽ 12' M 7.50
Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 3-4-2-1
1 N. Hedl N. Hedl G 7.90
6 S. Raux-Yao S. Raux-Yao D 6.30
55 N. Cvetković N. Cvetković D 6.20
4 Jakob Schöller Jakob Schöller D 6.90
77 B. Bolla B. Bolla M 6.90
26 Andreas Weimann Andreas Weimann 86' M 6.30
29 R. Amané R. Amané M 6.90
15 Nikolaus Wurmbrand Nikolaus Wurmbrand 60' M 6.90
10 P. Dahl P. Dahl 60' F 6.70
22 Y. Demir Y. Demir 22' F 3.90
9 E. Kara E. Kara F 6.90
Bench
61 F. Demir F. Demir D
90 J. Antiste J. Antiste F
20 Kouadio Ange Ahoussou Kouadio Ange Ahoussou 30' D 6.30
21 L. Schaub L. Schaub M
8 Lukas Grgić Lukas Grgić 30' M 6.30
7 M. Tilio M. Tilio F
25 P. Gartler P. Gartler G
16 T. Børkeeiet T. Børkeeiet M
17 T. Gulliksen T. Gulliksen 10' M 6.20
Best on the pitch
N. Hedl
N. Hedl
G · Rapid
7.90
· 45 pass
O. Kiteishvili
O. Kiteishvili
F · Sturm
7.70
5 shots · 42 pass
G. Mamageishvili
G. Mamageishvili
M · Sturm
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 14 pass
Stefan Hierländer
Stefan Hierländer
M · Sturm
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots · 5 pass
E. Karić
E. Karić
M · Sturm
7.30
2 shots · 49 pass
D. Khudyakov
D. Khudyakov
G · Sturm
7.20
· 24 pass
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Khudyakov G 90 7.20 — — — 24 22% — — —
P. Koller D 90 7.20 — — — 60 55% — — —
J. Mitchell D 90 7.20 — — 2 54 46% 2 — —
A. Vallci D 90 6.90 — — 2 59 52% 1 — —
E. Karić M 84 7.30 — — 2 49 45% 1 — —
J. Gorenc Stankovič M 90 7.20 — — 1 55 50% 2 — —
Luca Weinhandl M 62 6.30 — — — 19 16% — — —
Jacob Peter Hödl M 72 6.90 — — 2 25 18% — — —
O. Kiteishvili F 90 7.70 — — 5 42 34% 3 — —
S. Jatta F 72 6.60 — — 2 10 8% 1 — —
M. Malone F 62 6.20 — — — 9 8% — — —
Axel Kayombo F 28 6.30 — — 1 1 — — — —
B. Beganović F 18 6.50 — — 1 2 2% — — —
G. Mamageishvili M 28 7.60 1 — 1 14 13% — — —
Jusuf Gazibegović D 18 7.20 — 1 — 10 8% — — —
Stefan Hierländer M 12 7.50 1 — 2 5 4% — — —
Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Hedl G 90 7.90 — — — 45 20% — — —
S. Raux-Yao D 90 6.30 — — — 28 25% — — —
N. Cvetković D 90 6.20 — — 1 19 16% 2 — —
Jakob Schöller D 90 6.90 — — — 19 14% 4 — —
B. Bolla M 90 6.90 — — — 22 17% 1 — —
Andreas Weimann M 86 6.30 — — 1 13 8% — — —
R. Amané M 90 6.90 — — — 22 16% 4 — —
Nikolaus Wurmbrand M 60 6.90 — — 1 8 4% — — —
P. Dahl F 60 6.70 — — — 11 5% 1 — —
Y. Demir F 22 3.90 — — — 4 3% — — 1
E. Kara F 90 6.90 — — — 20 11% 1 — —
Kouadio Ange Ahoussou D 30 6.30 — — — 8 5% 1 — —
Lukas Grgić M 30 6.30 — — — 4 3% 1 — —
T. Gulliksen M 10 6.20 — — — 2 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
The final score was Sturm Graz 2–0 Rapid Vienna.
What did the model predict before Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
The model assigned 63% probability to a Sturm Graz win, 18% to a draw, and 18% to an Rapid Vienna win.