Bundesliga · Championship Group - 24 March 20, 2026 19:30 Merkur-Arena, Graz

Sturm Graz

#2 · 37 pts

1 – 1

Final score

Red Bull Salzburg

#3 · 29 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sturm Graz a 46% win probability (draw 25%, Red Bull Salzburg 27%). The final result was Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg. In 3 previous meetings, Sturm Graz have won 1 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Red Bull Salzburg.

Match statistics

3

Shots on target

1

0.49

Actual xG

1.31

47%

Possession

53%

4

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

46.52%

Sturm

25.88%

X ←

27.6%

Red

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 25.88% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Sturm

1.52

0.49

-1.03

Red

1.26

1.31

+0.05

Red Bull Salzburg dominated by xG (1.31 vs 0.49). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Lask Linz	32	39
2	Sturm Graz	32	37
3	Red Bull Salzburg	32	29
4	Austria Vienna	32	29
5	Rapid Vienna	32	27
6	TSV Hartberg	32	25