Sudan - Ethiopia
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 25, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
26.19%
Win
Sudan
30.32%
Draw
43.49%
Win
Ethiopia
0.84
1.6
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(13.82%)
1X2 Result
1
26%
X
30%
2
43%
Double Chance
1X
57%
X2
74%
12
70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
51%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Ethiopia a 43% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Sudan. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sudan and 1.6 for Ethiopia (total 2.4), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.82% probability.
Score Matrix
↕ Sudan
Ethiopia →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Playing profile
Sudan
Attack
13
Defence
50
Form
37
Ethiopia
Attack
35
Defence
92
Form
68
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sudan vs Ethiopia?
The model gives Sudan a 26% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 43% for an Ethiopia win.
How many goals are expected in Sudan vs Ethiopia?
Expected goals: Sudan 0.8, Ethiopia 1.6 (total 2.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Sudan vs Ethiopia?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.82%.