Virsliga · Regular Season - 32 October 10, 2026 15:00

Super Nova

#6 · 38 pts

2 – 1

Final score

Grobiņa

#8 · 29 pts

M. Oss (ast. R. Sitjakovs) 6'

R. Sitjakovs (ast. N. Pathe) 85'

(pen.) 29' M. Corryn

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Super Nova a 41% win probability (draw 38%, Grobiņa 19%). The final result was Super Nova 2–1 Grobiņa. In 3 previous meetings, Super Nova have won 3 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Grobiņa.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

3

1.57

Actual xG

2.45

66%

Possession

34%

8

Corners

4

Match Events

4'

I. Tyshchenko

⚽M. Oss · ast. R. Sitjakovs

6'

10'

I. Tyshchenko

10'

I. Tyshchenko

K. Romanovs

19'

20'

J. Ribeiro / H. Yamada ↕

29'

(pen.) M. Corryn⚽

M. Oss

33'

46'

Dodo / A. Kholod ↕

46'

O. Olatunde-Matthew / A. Baydal ↕

↕ Bamba / A. Glaudans

65'

↕ R. Kirss / N. Pathe

65'

↕ I. Patrikejevs / M. Tihonovics

74'

79'

M. Sidorovs / M. Corryn ↕

⚽R. Sitjakovs · ast. N. Pathe

85'

87'

A. Puzirevskis / J. Ribeiro ↕

V. Lizunovs

89'

↕ E. Emsis / K. Skadmanis

90'+1

↕ V. Lizunovs / I. Ndiaye

90'+1

Pre-match prediction

41.4%

Super ←

38.89%

X

19.71%

Grobiņa

we assigned to the actual result (Super Nova) 41.4% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Super

0.75

1.57

+0.82

Grobiņa

0.35

2.45

+2.1

Grobiņa dominated by xG (2.45 vs 1.57). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	34	86
2	Riga	34	82
3	Auda	34	67
4	BFC Daugavpils	34	48
5	FK Liepaja	34	47
6	Super Nova	34	38
7	FS Jelgava	34	32
8	Grobiņa	34	29
9	Tukums	34	25
10	Ogre United	34	18