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Super Nova - Riga

Virsliga September 15, 2026 18:00
Super Nova
#6 · 27 pts
vs
Riga
#1 · 64 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
14.41%
Win
Super Nova
19.83%
Draw
65.76%
Win
Riga
0.53
Expected xG
1.85
Most likely outcome
Riga
65.76%
Probability
72.4%
1X2 accuracy · 29 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–1 (17.59%)
1X2 Result
1 14%
X 20%
2 66%
Double Chance
1X 34%
X2 86%
12 80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 49%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Riga a 65% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 14% for Super Nova. Expected goals are 0.5 for Super Nova and 1.8 for Riga (total 2.4), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 17.59% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Super Nova have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Riga.

Season Stats

Super Nova
4W 2D 9L
Riga
13W 2D 0L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
2.9
1.6
Conceded
0.6
Percentages
87%
O 1.5
93%
60%
O 2.5
80%
60%
BTTS
53%
20%
Clean Sht
47%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Virsliga. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
40%
O 3.5
70%
BTTS
Super Nova
2W 1D 7L · at home
Riga
8W 2D 0L · away
1.2
gls/g
3.2
1.9
Conceded
0.8
20%
Win %
80%
30%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
90%
70%
O 2.5
80%
20%
O 3.5
60%
80%
BTTS
60%
10%
Clean Sht
40%
10%
Failed to Score
10%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Super Nova Riga →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.3% 17.1% 15.8% 9.8% 4.5% 1.7%
1 4.9% 9.1% 8.4% 5.2% 2.4% 0.9%
2 1.3% 2.4% 2.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
3 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% —
4 — 0.1% 0.1% — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Super Nova Super Nova
L FK Liepaja 1–2
W Grobiņa 2–0
L Ogre United 1–2
W Tukums 1–2
L FS Jelgava 1–5
Home clean sheet (120 days) 22%
Riga Riga
W Ogre United 4–1
W Grobiņa 4–0
W Tukums 3–1
W FS Jelgava 3–0
W Auda 0–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 30%

Playing profile

Super Nova Super Nova
Attack
26
Defence
60
Form
39
Riga Riga
Attack
70
Defence
91
Form
82
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Super Nova
0
Draw
2
Riga
24 May 2026 Virsliga 0–3
14 Apr 2026 Virsliga 1–4

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Riga Riga 25 64
2 Rīgas FS Rīgas FS 24 62
3 Auda Auda 24 46
4 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 26 36
5 FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 25 34
6 Super Nova Super Nova 24 27
7 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 26 25
8 Grobiņa Grobiņa 25 21
9 Tukums Tukums 26 20
10 Ogre United Ogre United 25 14
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Super Nova vs Riga?
The model gives Super Nova a 14% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 65% for an Riga win.
How many goals are expected in Super Nova vs Riga?
Expected goals: Super Nova 0.5, Riga 1.8 (total 2.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Super Nova vs Riga?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 17.59%.