SV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg — pre-match prediction — Bundesliga — October 17, 2026

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6 October 17, 2026 15:30 Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

SV Elversberg

#8 · 10 pts

4 – 3

Final score

FC Augsburg

#9 · 9 pts

Lukas Petkov 4'

Lasse Günther (ast. Maurice Krattenmacher) 7'

Maximilian Rohr (ast. Felix Keidel) 28'

Frederik Schmahl (ast. Lukas Petkov) 89'

(pen.) 45'+9 Fabian Rieder

(pen.) 76' Michael Gregoritsch

90' (ast. Hennes Behrens) Mert Kömür

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave SV Elversberg a 44% win probability (draw 27%, FC Augsburg 28%). The final result was SV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

3.69

Actual xG

3.51

Saves

40%

Possession

60%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Lukas Petkov (missed pen.)

⚽Lukas Petkov

⚽Lasse Günther · ast. Maurice Krattenmacher

⚽Maximilian Rohr · ast. Felix Keidel

28'

30'

Han-Noah Massengo

30'

Rodrigo Ribeiro

↕ Jan Gyamerah / Luca Sirch

40'

↕ Noah Darvich / Frederik Schmahl

40'

45'+8

45'+9

(pen.) Fabian Rieder⚽

45'

Anton Kade / Marius Wolf ↕

45'

Michael Gregoritsch / Rodrigo Ribeiro ↕

45'

Jeffrey Gouweleeuw / Juma Bah ↕

52'

Chrislain Matsima

Felix Keidel

54'

74'

Mert Kömür / Arijon Ibrahimovic ↕

74'

Seol Young-woo / Robin Fellhauer ↕

Lukas Pinckert

75'

76'

(pen.) Michael Gregoritsch⚽

↕ David Mokwa / Noel Futkeu

77'

↕ Maurice Krattenmacher / Raif Adam

78'

79'

Nicolas Kristof

84'

87'

⚽Frederik Schmahl · ast. Lukas Petkov

89'

↕ Felix Keidel / Amara Condé

90'+3

Frederik Schmahl

90'+6

⚽Noel Futkeu (missed pen.)

90'+8

90'

ast. Hennes Behrens · Mert Kömür⚽

Pre-match prediction

44.52%

SV ←

27.16%

28.31%

we assigned to the actual result (SV Elversberg) 44.52% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

3.09

3.69

+0.6

1.43

3.51

+2.08

xG dominance was balanced (3.69 – 3.51). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Bayern München	7	17
2	Borussia Dortmund	7	17
3	SC Freiburg	7	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	7	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	12
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	10
8	SV Elversberg	7	10
9	FC Augsburg	7	9
10	1899 Hoffenheim	7	9
11	Hamburger SV	7	9
12	1. FC Köln	7	8
13	SC Paderborn 07	7	8
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	7	8
15	VfB Stuttgart	7	6
16	FC Schalke 04	7	6
17	Union Berlin	7	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	3

Lineups

SV Elversberg 4-2-3-1

N. Kristof G 6.80

L. Günther 1 ⚽ D 6.36

M. Rohr 1 ⚽ D 7.67

L. Pinckert D 6.26

J. Gyamerah 40' D 6.09

Ł. Poręba M 6.20

F. Keidel 1 👟 89' M 6.38

M. Krattenmacher 1 👟 78' M 6.55

Noah Darvich 40' M 5.99

L. Petkov 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 7.54

D. Mokwa 77' F 6.28

Bench

A. Condé 1' M 0.00

F. Le Joncour D 0.00

F. Schmahl 1 ⚽ 50' M 6.48

L. Schnellbacher M 0.00

L. Sirch 50' D 6.09

N. Futkeu 13' F 6.56

N. Mickelson D 0.00

R. Adam 12' F 6.65

T. Boss G 0.00

FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1

F. Dahmen G 6.92

C. Brackelmann D 6.20

C. Matsima D 5.73

Abdulay Bah 45' D 6.42

Hennes Behrens 1 👟 M 7.70

F. Rieder 1 ⚽ M 7.36

H. Massengo M 6.02

M. Wolf 45' M 5.65

A. Ibrahimović 74' M 6.41

R. Fellhauer 74' M 5.85

Rodrigo Ribeiro 45' F 6.27

Bench

A. Kade 45' M 5.54

J. Gouweleeuw 45' D 5.98

M. Gregoritsch 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.39

M. Kömür 1 ⚽ 16' M 6.95

N. Labrović G 0.00

Seol Young-Woo 16' D 5.84

T. Schnitzer M 0.00

U. Ogundu F 0.00

Y. Keitel M 0.00

Best on the pitch

Hennes Behrens

M · FC

7.70

1 👟

· 39 pass

M. Rohr

D · SV

7.67

1 ⚽

1 shots · 50 pass

L. Petkov

M · SV

7.54

1 ⚽ 1 👟

3 shots · 21 pass

M. Gregoritsch

F · FC

7.39

1 ⚽

3 shots · 14 pass

F. Rieder

M · FC

7.36

1 ⚽

3 shots · 60 pass

M. Kömür

M · FC

6.95

1 ⚽

3 shots · 4 pass

SV Elversberg — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
N. Kristof	G	90	6.80	—	—	0	44	34%	0	1	—
L. Günther	D	90	6.36	1	—	2	28	17%	6	—	—
M. Rohr	D	90	7.67	1	—	1	50	44%	2	—	—
L. Pinckert	D	90	6.26	—	—	0	39	33%	0	1	—
J. Gyamerah	D	40	6.09	—	—	0	10	9%	1	—	—
Ł. Poręba	M	90	6.20	—	—	1	36	32%	4	—	—
F. Keidel	M	89	6.38	—	1	0	27	23%	0	1	—
M. Krattenmacher	M	78	6.55	—	1	3	20	13%	3	—	—
Noah Darvich	M	40	5.99	—	—	2	3	1%	1	—	—
L. Petkov	M	90	7.54	1	1	3	21	12%	4	—	—
D. Mokwa	F	77	6.28	—	—	2	10	6%	0	—	—
A. Condé	M	1	0.00	—	—	1	3	3%	0	—	—
F. Schmahl	M	50	6.48	1	—	1	10	8%	0	1	—
L. Sirch	D	50	6.09	—	—	0	19	13%	1	—	—
N. Futkeu	F	13	6.56	—	—	2	5	4%	0	—	—
R. Adam	F	12	6.65	—	—	1	1	1%	0	—	—

FC Augsburg — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
F. Dahmen	G	90	6.92	—	—	0	34	29%	0	—	—
C. Brackelmann	D	90	6.20	—	—	1	52	45%	2	—	—
C. Matsima	D	90	5.73	—	—	2	49	42%	0	1	—
Abdulay Bah	D	45	6.42	—	—	4	28	27%	1	—	—
Hennes Behrens	M	90	7.70	—	1	0	39	28%	4	—	—
F. Rieder	M	90	7.36	1	—	3	60	52%	1	—	—
H. Massengo	M	90	6.02	—	—	2	53	43%	1	1	—
M. Wolf	M	45	5.65	—	—	4	19	12%	1	—	—
A. Ibrahimović	M	74	6.41	—	—	3	28	20%	0	—	—
R. Fellhauer	M	74	5.85	—	—	2	24	19%	1	—	—
Rodrigo Ribeiro	F	45	6.27	—	—	2	8	8%	0	1	—
A. Kade	M	45	5.54	—	—	0	12	10%	1	—	—
J. Gouweleeuw	D	45	5.98	—	—	0	35	27%	1	—	—
M. Gregoritsch	F	45	7.39	1	—	3	14	8%	1	—	—
M. Kömür	M	16	6.95	1	—	3	4	3%	1	—	—
Seol Young-Woo	D	16	5.84	—	—	0	7	6%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?

The final score was SV Elversberg 4–3 FC Augsburg.

What did the model predict before SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?

The model assigned 44% probability to a SV Elversberg win, 27% to a draw, and 28% to an FC Augsburg win.