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Swansea University - Carmarthen Town

FAW Championship October 28, 2026 20:30
Swansea University
#1 · 16 pts
vs
Carmarthen Town
#6 · 11 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
48.23%
Win
Swansea University
25.98%
Draw
25.79%
Win
Carmarthen Town
3.67
Expected xG
1.38

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.56%)
1X2 Result
1 48%
X 26%
2 26%
Double Chance
1X 74%
X2 52%
12 74%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 59%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Swansea University a 48% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Carmarthen Town. Expected goals are 3.7 for Swansea University and 1.4 for Carmarthen Town (total 5.1), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.56% probability.

Season Stats

Swansea University
5W 1D 0L
Carmarthen Town
7W 4D 4L
Averages per game
3.7
Goals
2.7
0.8
Conceded
2.3
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
87%
100%
O 2.5
87%
33%
BTTS
80%
67%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in FAW Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
69%
O 3.5
57%
BTTS
Swansea University
2W 1D 0L · at home
Carmarthen Town
6W 3D 1L · away
3.7
gls/g
3.0
1.3
Conceded
2.1
67%
Win %
60%
100%
Win or Draw
90%
100%
O 1.5
90%
100%
O 2.5
80%
67%
O 3.5
70%
33%
BTTS
80%
67%
Clean Sht
20%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Swansea University Carmarthen Town →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% —
1 2.3% 3.2% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.3% 6.0% 4.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
3 5.3% 7.3% 5.0% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
4 4.8% 6.7% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
5 3.6% 4.9% 3.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%

Recent form

Swansea University Swansea University
W Pontardawe Town 4–0
D Pontypridd Town 4–4
W Caerau (Ely) 1–5
W llanelli AFC 3–0
W Baglan Dragons 0–3
Home clean sheet (120 days) 40%
Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town
D Ynyshir Albions 2–2
L Trethomas Bluebirds 2–3
D llanelli AFC 2–2
L Treowen Stars 2–4
W Afan Lido 3–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Swansea University Swansea University
Attack
88
Defence
78
Form
85
Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town
Attack
58
Defence
40
Form
51
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

South

# Team G Pts
1 Swansea University Swansea University 6 16
2 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 6 15
3 Treowen Stars Treowen Stars 7 13
4 Pontypridd Town Pontypridd Town 6 13
5 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 8 13
6 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 7 11
7 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 7 10
8 Afan Lido Afan Lido 8 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds Trethomas Bluebirds 7 9
10 Ynyshir Albions Ynyshir Albions 6 9
11 Caerphilly Athletic Caerphilly Athletic 7 8
12 Cardiff Draconians Cardiff Draconians 5 7
13 Newport City Newport City 5 6
14 Pontardawe Town Pontardawe Town 6 3
15 llanelli AFC llanelli AFC 8 2
16 Llantwit Major Llantwit Major 5 1

What's at stake · South

Top 2 advance to the next round

Swansea University Carmarthen Town
Current #1 #6
→ Swansea University #1 #6
→ Draw #1 #6
→ Carmarthen Town #1 #3

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Swansea University vs Carmarthen Town?
The model gives Swansea University a 48% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 25% for an Carmarthen Town win.
How many goals are expected in Swansea University vs Carmarthen Town?
Expected goals: Swansea University 3.7, Carmarthen Town 1.4 (total 5.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Swansea University vs Carmarthen Town?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.56%.