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Championship · Regular Season - 43 April 18, 2026 16:00
Swansea
#2 · 23 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Southampton
#6 · 20 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Southampton
M. Stamenic (ast. Z. Vipotnik) 20'
57' (ast. L. Scienza) S. Charles
90' (ast. C. Jander) C. Archer
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 54% win probability (draw 21%, Swansea 23%). The final result was Swansea 1–2 Southampton. In 2 previous meetings, Swansea have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Southampton.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
8
3
Shots on target
5
1.08
Actual xG
0.92
3
Saves
2
44%
Possession
56%
4
Corners
12
12
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
18'
F. Azaz
⚽M. Stamenic · ast. Z. Vipotnik
20'
G. Franco
23'
25'
F. Downes
M. Widell
25'
46'
S. Charles / F. Downes ↕
57'
ast. L. Scienza · S. Charles⚽
↕ S. Parker / J. Ward
60'
↕ M. Widell / M. Yalcouye
60'
↕ L. Cullen / Gustavo Nunes
60'
↕ Z. Vipotnik / A. Idah
68'
68'
C. Larin / R. Stewart ↕
↕ M. Stamenic / J. Fulton
73'
88'
C. Archer / J. Bree ↕
90'+1
S. Edozie / L. Scienza ↕
90'+1
C. Archer
90'+2
J. Stephens / K. Matsuki ↕
90'
ast. C. Jander · C. Archer⚽
Pre-match prediction
23.36%
Swansea
21.85%
X
54.78%
Southampton ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Southampton) 54.78% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Swansea
1.06
1.08
+0.02
Southampton
2.05
0.92
-1.13
xG dominance was balanced (1.08 – 0.92). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Swansea Swansea 4-2-3-1
22 L. Vigouroux L. Vigouroux G 6.90
14 J. Tymon J. Tymon D 6.30
15
D 6.90
5 B. Cabango B. Cabango D 6.60
41 Sam Parker Sam Parker 60' D 6.60
6 M. Stamenić M. Stamenić 1 ⚽ 73' M 6.90
17 Gonçalo Franco Gonçalo Franco M 6.30
10 Eom Ji-Sung Eom Ji-Sung M 6.90
7 M. Widell M. Widell 60' M 6.90
20 L. Cullen L. Cullen 60' M 6.20
9 Z. Vipotnik Z. Vipotnik 1 👟 68' F 7.50
Bench
33 A. Idah A. Idah 30' F 6.30
4 J. Fulton J. Fulton 25' M 6.50
25
J. Ward 38' D 6.70
21 L. Walta L. Walta M
8 M. Yalcouyé M. Yalcouyé 38' M 6.60
35 Ronald Ronald F
Southampton Southampton 4-2-3-1
41
G 6.90
3 R. Manning R. Manning D 7.00
15
D 6.60
6 T. Harwood-Bellis T. Harwood-Bellis D 7.30
14 J. Bree J. Bree 88' D 6.20
20 C. Jander C. Jander 1 👟 M 7.00
4 F. Downes F. Downes 45' M 6.50
13 Léo Scienza Léo Scienza 1 👟 M 6.60
10 F. Azaz F. Azaz M 6.00
27 K. Matsuki K. Matsuki M 6.90
11 R. Stewart R. Stewart 68' F 6.50
Bench
48 Cameron Bragg Cameron Bragg M
19 C. Archer C. Archer 1 ⚽ 10' F 7.50
9 C. Larin C. Larin 30' F 6.50
5 J. Stephens J. Stephens 6' D
24 S. Charles S. Charles 1 ⚽ 53' M 7.90
23 S. Edozie S. Edozie 7' M
18 T. Fellows T. Fellows M
34 Welington Welington D
Best on the pitch
S. Charles
S. Charles
M · Southampton
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 30 pass
C. Archer
C. Archer
F · Southampton
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 3 pass
Z. Vipotnik
Z. Vipotnik
F · Swansea
7.50
1 👟
· 7 pass
T. Harwood-Bellis
T. Harwood-Bellis
D · Southampton
7.30
· 67 pass
C. Jander
C. Jander
M · Southampton
7.00
1 👟
· 63 pass
R. Manning
R. Manning
D · Southampton
7.00
· 81 pass
Swansea Swansea — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Vigouroux G 98 6.90 — — — 40 25% — — —
J. Tymon D 98 6.30 — — — 33 26% — — —
D 98 6.90 — — — 68 52% 1 — —
B. Cabango D 98 6.60 — — — 51 40% 1 — —
Sam Parker D 60 6.60 — — — 16 14% 2 — —
M. Stamenić M 73 6.90 1 — 1 43 35% — — —
Gonçalo Franco M 98 6.30 — — 1 26 17% 2 1 —
Eom Ji-Sung M 98 6.90 — — 1 19 15% 3 — —
M. Widell M 60 6.90 — — 3 14 13% — 1 —
L. Cullen M 60 6.20 — — 1 21 18% — — —
Z. Vipotnik F 68 7.50 — 1 — 7 4% — — —
A. Idah F 30 6.30 — — — 10 4% — — —
J. Fulton M 25 6.50 — — — 8 6% — — —
J. Ward D 38 6.70 — — — 16 12% 1 — —
M. Yalcouyé M 38 6.60 — — — 23 20% 2 — —
Southampton Southampton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 98 6.90 — — — 28 19% — — —
R. Manning D 98 7.00 — — — 81 66% 2 — —
D 98 6.60 — — — 63 57% — — —
T. Harwood-Bellis D 98 7.30 — — — 67 64% 4 — —
J. Bree D 88 6.20 — — 2 17 16% 1 — —
C. Jander M 98 7.00 — 1 — 63 53% 3 — —
F. Downes M 45 6.50 — — — 18 16% — 1 —
Léo Scienza M 91 6.60 — 1 1 36 31% — — —
F. Azaz M 98 6.00 — — — 41 33% — 1 —
K. Matsuki M 92 6.90 — — 1 30 26% 1 — —
R. Stewart F 68 6.50 — — 2 19 8% 1 — —
C. Archer F 10 7.50 1 — 1 3 — — — —
C. Larin F 30 6.50 — — — 2 2% — — —
J. Stephens D 6 — — — — 3 3% — — —
S. Charles M 53 7.90 1 — 1 30 28% — — —
S. Edozie M 7 — — — — 2 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Swansea vs Southampton?
The final score was Swansea 1–2 Southampton.
What did the model predict before Swansea vs Southampton?
The model assigned 23% probability to a Swansea win, 21% to a draw, and 54% to an Southampton win.