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Championship · Regular Season - 43 April 18, 2026 16:00
Swansea
#2 · 14 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Southampton
#7 · 10 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Southampton
M. Stamenic (ast. Z. Vipotnik) 20'
57' (ast. L. Scienza) S. Charles
90' (ast. C. Jander) C. Archer
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 54% win probability (draw 21%, Swansea 23%). The final result was Swansea 1–2 Southampton. In 2 previous meetings, Swansea have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Southampton.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
8
3
Shots on target
5
1.08
Actual xG
0.92
3
Saves
2
44%
Possession
56%
4
Corners
12
12
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
18'
F. Azaz
⚽M. Stamenic · ast. Z. Vipotnik
20'
G. Franco
23'
25'
F. Downes
M. Widell
25'
46'
S. Charles / F. Downes ↕
57'
ast. L. Scienza · S. Charles⚽
↕ S. Parker / J. Ward
60'
↕ M. Widell / M. Yalcouye
60'
↕ L. Cullen / Gustavo Nunes
60'
↕ Z. Vipotnik / A. Idah
68'
68'
C. Larin / R. Stewart ↕
↕ M. Stamenic / J. Fulton
73'
88'
C. Archer / J. Bree ↕
90'+1
S. Edozie / L. Scienza ↕
90'+1
C. Archer
90'+2
J. Stephens / K. Matsuki ↕
90'
ast. C. Jander · C. Archer⚽
Pre-match prediction
23.36%
Swansea
21.85%
X
54.78%
Southampton ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Southampton) 54.78% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Swansea
1.06
1.08
+0.02
Southampton
2.05
0.92
-1.13
xG dominance was balanced (1.08 – 0.92). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 West Ham West Ham 7 14
2 Swansea Swansea 7 14
3 West Brom West Brom 7 14
4 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 6 13
5 QPR QPR 7 12
6 Charlton Charlton 7 12
7 Southampton Southampton 7 10
8 Birmingham Birmingham 7 10
9 Stoke City Stoke City 7 10
10 Bristol City Bristol City 6 10
11 Norwich Norwich 7 9
12 Millwall Millwall 6 9
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 6 9
14 Wolves Wolves 5 8
15 Blackburn Blackburn 7 8
16 Lincoln Lincoln 6 8
17 Watford Watford 7 8
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 6 7
19 Wrexham Wrexham 7 7
20 Bolton Bolton 7 7
21 Cardiff Cardiff 7 4
22 Derby Derby 7 4
23 Preston Preston 7 3
24 Burnley Burnley 7 3
Lineups
Swansea Swansea 4-2-3-1
22 L. Vigouroux L. Vigouroux G 6.90
14 J. Tymon J. Tymon D 6.30
15
D 6.90
5 B. Cabango B. Cabango D 6.60
41 Sam Parker Sam Parker 60' D 6.60
6 M. Stamenić M. Stamenić 1 ⚽ 73' M 6.90
17 Gonçalo Franco Gonçalo Franco M 6.30
10 Eom Ji-Sung Eom Ji-Sung M 6.90
7 M. Widell M. Widell 60' M 6.90
20 L. Cullen L. Cullen 60' M 6.20
9 Z. Vipotnik Z. Vipotnik 1 👟 68' F 7.50
Bench
33 A. Idah A. Idah 30' F 6.30
4 J. Fulton J. Fulton 25' M 6.50
25
J. Ward 38' D 6.70
21 Leo Walta Leo Walta M
8 M. Yalcouyé M. Yalcouyé 38' M 6.60
35 Ronald Ronald F
Southampton Southampton 4-2-3-1
41
G 6.90
3 R. Manning R. Manning D 7.00
15
D 6.60
6 Taylor Harwood-Bellis Taylor Harwood-Bellis D 7.30
14 J. Bree J. Bree 88' D 6.20
20 Caspar Jander Caspar Jander 1 👟 M 7.00
4 F. Downes F. Downes 45' M 6.50
13 Léo Scienza Léo Scienza 1 👟 M 6.60
10 F. Azaz F. Azaz M 6.00
27 K. Matsuki K. Matsuki M 6.90
11 Ross Stewart Ross Stewart 68' F 6.50
Bench
48 Cameron Bragg Cameron Bragg M
19 C. Archer C. Archer 1 ⚽ 10' F 7.50
9 C. Larin C. Larin 30' F 6.50
5 J. Stephens J. Stephens 6' D
24 S. Charles S. Charles 1 ⚽ 53' M 7.90
23 S. Edozie S. Edozie 7' M
18 T. Fellows T. Fellows M
34 Welington Welington D
Best on the pitch
S. Charles
S. Charles
M · Southampton
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 30 pass
C. Archer
C. Archer
F · Southampton
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 3 pass
Z. Vipotnik
Z. Vipotnik
F · Swansea
7.50
1 👟
· 7 pass
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
D · Southampton
7.30
· 67 pass
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander
M · Southampton
7.00
1 👟
· 63 pass
R. Manning
R. Manning
D · Southampton
7.00
· 81 pass
Swansea Swansea — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Vigouroux G 98 6.90 — — — 40 25% — — —
J. Tymon D 98 6.30 — — — 33 26% — — —
D 98 6.90 — — — 68 52% 1 — —
B. Cabango D 98 6.60 — — — 51 40% 1 — —
Sam Parker D 60 6.60 — — — 16 14% 2 — —
M. Stamenić M 73 6.90 1 — 1 43 35% — — —
Gonçalo Franco M 98 6.30 — — 1 26 17% 2 1 —
Eom Ji-Sung M 98 6.90 — — 1 19 15% 3 — —
M. Widell M 60 6.90 — — 3 14 13% — 1 —
L. Cullen M 60 6.20 — — 1 21 18% — — —
Z. Vipotnik F 68 7.50 — 1 — 7 4% — — —
A. Idah F 30 6.30 — — — 10 4% — — —
J. Fulton M 25 6.50 — — — 8 6% — — —
J. Ward D 38 6.70 — — — 16 12% 1 — —
M. Yalcouyé M 38 6.60 — — — 23 20% 2 — —
Southampton Southampton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 98 6.90 — — — 28 19% — — —
R. Manning D 98 7.00 — — — 81 66% 2 — —
D 98 6.60 — — — 63 57% — — —
Taylor Harwood-Bellis D 98 7.30 — — — 67 64% 4 — —
J. Bree D 88 6.20 — — 2 17 16% 1 — —
Caspar Jander M 98 7.00 — 1 — 63 53% 3 — —
F. Downes M 45 6.50 — — — 18 16% — 1 —
Léo Scienza M 91 6.60 — 1 1 36 31% — — —
F. Azaz M 98 6.00 — — — 41 33% — 1 —
K. Matsuki M 92 6.90 — — 1 30 26% 1 — —
Ross Stewart F 68 6.50 — — 2 19 8% 1 — —
C. Archer F 10 7.50 1 — 1 3 — — — —
C. Larin F 30 6.50 — — — 2 2% — — —
J. Stephens D 6 — — — — 3 3% — — —
S. Charles M 53 7.90 1 — 1 30 28% — — —
S. Edozie M 7 — — — — 2 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Swansea vs Southampton?
The final score was Swansea 1–2 Southampton.
What did the model predict before Swansea vs Southampton?
The model assigned 23% probability to a Swansea win, 21% to a draw, and 54% to an Southampton win.