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Championship · Regular Season - 43 April 18, 2026 16:00
Swansea
#11 · 64 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Southampton
#4 · 80 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Southampton
M. Stamenic (ast. Z. Vipotnik) 20'
57' (ast. L. Scienza) S. Charles
90' (ast. C. Jander) C. Archer

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 54% win probability (draw 21%, Swansea 23%). The final result was Swansea 1–2 Southampton. In 1 previous meetings, Swansea have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Southampton.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
8
3
Shots on target
5
1.08
Actual xG
0.92
3
Saves
2
44%
Possession
56%
4
Corners
12
12
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
18'
F. Azaz
⚽M. Stamenic · ast. Z. Vipotnik
20'
G. Franco
23'
25'
F. Downes
M. Widell
25'
46'
S. Charles / F. Downes ↕
57'
ast. L. Scienza · S. Charles⚽
↕ S. Parker / J. Ward
60'
↕ M. Widell / M. Yalcouye
60'
↕ L. Cullen / Gustavo Nunes
60'
↕ Z. Vipotnik / A. Idah
68'
68'
C. Larin / R. Stewart ↕
↕ M. Stamenic / J. Fulton
73'
88'
C. Archer / J. Bree ↕
90'+1
S. Edozie / L. Scienza ↕
90'+1
C. Archer
90'+2
J. Stephens / K. Matsuki ↕
90'
ast. C. Jander · C. Archer⚽
Pre-match prediction
23.36%
Swansea
21.85%
X
54.78%
Southampton ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Southampton) 54.78% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Swansea
1.06
1.08
+0.02
Southampton
2.05
0.92
-1.13
xG dominance was balanced (1.08 – 0.92). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Swansea Swansea 4-2-3-1
22
L. Vigouroux G 6.90
14 J. Tymon J. Tymon D 6.30
15
D 6.90
5
B. Cabango D 6.60
41
S. Parker 60' D 6.60
6 M. Stamenić M. Stamenić 1 ⚽ 73' M 6.90
17
G. Franco M 6.30
10
J. Eom M 6.90
7
M. Widell 60' M 6.90
20
L. Cullen 60' M 6.20
9 Z. Vipotnik Z. Vipotnik 1 👟 68' F 7.50
Bench
33
A. Idah 30' F 6.30
4
J. Fulton 25' M 6.50
25
J. Ward 38' D 6.70
21
L. Walta M
8
Malick Yalcouyé 38' M 6.60
35
Ronald F
Southampton Southampton 4-2-3-1
41
G 6.90
3 Ryan Manning Ryan Manning D 7.00
15
D 6.60
6 Taylor Harwood-Bellis Taylor Harwood-Bellis D 7.30
14 James Bree James Bree 88' D 6.20
20 Caspar Jander Caspar Jander 1 👟 M 7.00
4 F. Downes F. Downes 45' M 6.50
13 Léo Scienza Léo Scienza 1 👟 M 6.60
10 F. Azaz F. Azaz M 6.00
27 Kuryu Matsuki Kuryu Matsuki M 6.90
11 Ross Stewart Ross Stewart 68' F 6.50
Bench
19 Cameron Archer Cameron Archer 1 ⚽ 10' F 7.50
48 Cameron Bragg Cameron Bragg M
9 C. Larin C. Larin 30' F 6.50
5 Jack Stephens Jack Stephens 6' D
23 Samuel Edozie Samuel Edozie 7' M
24 Shea Charles Shea Charles 1 ⚽ 53' M 7.90
18 Tom Fellows Tom Fellows M
34 Welington Welington D
Best on the pitch
Shea Charles
Shea Charles
M · Southampton
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 30 pass
Cameron Archer
Cameron Archer
F · Southampton
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 3 pass
Z. Vipotnik
Z. Vipotnik
F · Swansea
7.50
1 👟
· 7 pass
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
D · Southampton
7.30
· 67 pass
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander
M · Southampton
7.00
1 👟
· 63 pass
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning
D · Southampton
7.00
· 81 pass
Swansea Swansea — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Vigouroux G 98 6.90 — — — 40 25% — — —
J. Tymon D 98 6.30 — — — 33 26% — — —
D 98 6.90 — — — 68 52% 1 — —
B. Cabango D 98 6.60 — — — 51 40% 1 — —
S. Parker D 60 6.60 — — — 16 14% 2 — —
M. Stamenić M 73 6.90 1 — 1 43 35% — — —
G. Franco M 98 6.30 — — 1 26 17% 2 1 —
J. Eom M 98 6.90 — — 1 19 15% 3 — —
M. Widell M 60 6.90 — — 3 14 13% — 1 —
L. Cullen M 60 6.20 — — 1 21 18% — — —
Z. Vipotnik F 68 7.50 — 1 — 7 4% — — —
A. Idah F 30 6.30 — — — 10 4% — — —
J. Fulton M 25 6.50 — — — 8 6% — — —
J. Ward D 38 6.70 — — — 16 12% 1 — —
Malick Yalcouyé M 38 6.60 — — — 23 20% 2 — —
Southampton Southampton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 98 6.90 — — — 28 19% — — —
Ryan Manning D 98 7.00 — — — 81 66% 2 — —
D 98 6.60 — — — 63 57% — — —
Taylor Harwood-Bellis D 98 7.30 — — — 67 64% 4 — —
James Bree D 88 6.20 — — 2 17 16% 1 — —
Caspar Jander M 98 7.00 — 1 — 63 53% 3 — —
F. Downes M 45 6.50 — — — 18 16% — 1 —
Léo Scienza M 91 6.60 — 1 1 36 31% — — —
F. Azaz M 98 6.00 — — — 41 33% — 1 —
Kuryu Matsuki M 92 6.90 — — 1 30 26% 1 — —
Ross Stewart F 68 6.50 — — 2 19 8% 1 — —
Cameron Archer F 10 7.50 1 — 1 3 — — — —
C. Larin F 30 6.50 — — — 2 2% — — —
Jack Stephens D 6 — — — — 3 3% — — —
Samuel Edozie M 7 — — — — 2 2% — — —
Shea Charles M 53 7.90 1 — 1 30 28% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Swansea vs Southampton?
The final score was Swansea 1–2 Southampton.
What did the model predict before Swansea vs Southampton?
The model assigned 23% probability to a Swansea win, 21% to a draw, and 54% to an Southampton win.