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Sweden - Romania

UEFA Nations League September 25, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Sweden
#4 · 0 pts
vs
Romania
#3 · 0 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 26.8°C 💨 18 km/h 🌧️ 58% · Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
60.36%
Win
Sweden
16.59%
Draw
23.05%
Win
Romania
3.03
Expected xG
1.86
Most likely outcome
Sweden
60.36%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 3–1 (6.57%)
1X2 Result
1 60%
X 17%
2 23%
Double Chance
1X 77%
X2 40%
12 83%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 85%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Sweden a 60% win probability, against 16% for a draw and 23% for Romania. Expected goals are 3.0 for Sweden and 1.9 for Romania (total 4.9), with a 93% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–1 at 6.57% probability.

Season Stats

Sweden
5W 1D 0L
Romania
6W 0D 0L
Averages per game
3.2
Goals
3.0
0.7
Conceded
0.5
10.3
Shots OT
6.0
9.2
Corners
5.5
65%
Poss.
53%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
100%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
17%
O 3.5
33%
BTTS
Sweden
3W 0D 0L · at home
Romania
3W 0D 0L · away
3.7
gls/g
2.7
0.3
Conceded
0.3
100%
Win %
100%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
100%
33%
O 3.5
0%
33%
BTTS
33%
67%
Clean Sht
67%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Sweden Romania →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.8% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1%
1 2.3% 4.2% 3.9% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4%
2 3.5% 6.4% 6.0% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6%
3 3.5% 6.5% 6.0% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6%
4 2.6% 4.9% 4.6% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5%
5 1.6% 3.0% 2.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3%

Recent form

Sweden Sweden
W Azerbaijan 6–0
W Slovakia 2–1
W Estonia 0–3
D Slovakia 2–2
W Estonia 3–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Romania Romania
W Cyprus 4–1
W Kosovo 3–0
W Lithuania 1–2
W Cyprus 0–3
W Lithuania 3–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Sweden Sweden
Attack
44
Defence
48
Form
14
Romania Romania
Attack
32
Defence
61
Form
35
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Unavailable

Sweden
I. Hien
I. Hien
Injured

UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 4

# Team G Pts
1 Poland Poland 0 0
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 0
3 Romania Romania 0 0
4 Sweden Sweden 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 4

Top 2 advance to the next round

Sweden Romania
Current #4 #3
→ Sweden #1 #4
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Romania #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sweden vs Romania?
The model gives Sweden a 60% win probability, 16% for a draw, and 23% for an Romania win.
How many goals are expected in Sweden vs Romania?
Expected goals: Sweden 3.0, Romania 1.9 (total 4.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 93%.
What is the most likely score in Sweden vs Romania?
3–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.57%.