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← Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.

Tanzania - Nigeria

Africa Cup of Nations - Qual. November 15, 2026 18:00
Tanzania
#3 · 1 pts
vs
Nigeria
#2 · 3 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.08%
Win
Tanzania
29.24%
Draw
34.69%
Win
Nigeria
1.02
Expected xG
1.01

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (14.11%)
1X2 Result
1 36%
X 29%
2 35%
Double Chance
1X 65%
X2 64%
12 71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 84%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5 59%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Tanzania a 36% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Nigeria. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tanzania and 1.0 for Nigeria (total 2.0), with a 83% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.11% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Tanzania have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Nigeria.

Season Stats

Tanzania
0W 1D 1L
Nigeria
1W 0D 1L
Averages per game
0.5
Goals
1.0
1.5
Conceded
2.0
3.5
Shots OT
4.5
1.5
Corners
5.0
51%
Poss.
55%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
100%
50%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Score Matrix

↕ Tanzania Nigeria →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 13.2% 13.3% 6.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.4% 13.5% 6.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 6.9% 6.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% —
4 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% — —
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Tanzania Tanzania
D Madagascar 1–1
L Guinea-Bissau 0–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
Nigeria Nigeria
L Guinea-Bissau 3–0
W Madagascar 2–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Tanzania Tanzania
Attack
28
Defence
69
Form
20
Nigeria Nigeria
Attack
48
Defence
56
Form
39
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Tanzania
0
Draw
1
Nigeria
23 Dec 2025 Africa Cup of Nations 1–2

Group L

# Team G Pts
1 Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau 2 6
2 Nigeria Nigeria 2 3
3 Tanzania Tanzania 2 1
4 Madagascar Madagascar 2 1

What's at stake · Group L

Top 2 advance to the next round

Tanzania Nigeria
Current #3 #2
→ Tanzania #2 #3
→ Draw #3 #2
→ Nigeria #4 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Tanzania vs Nigeria?
The model gives Tanzania a 36% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 34% for an Nigeria win.
How many goals are expected in Tanzania vs Nigeria?
Expected goals: Tanzania 1.0, Nigeria 1.0 (total 2.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 83%.
What is the most likely score in Tanzania vs Nigeria?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.11%.