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Liga MX · Apertura - 11 October 10, 2026 05:00 Estadio Universitario, Monterey
Tigres UANL
#15 · 15 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Toluca
#5 · 23 pts
Juan Brunetta 6'
Guillermo Martinez (ast. Emiliano Gómez) 37'
Juan Brunetta (ast. Fernando Gorriarán) 60'
42' (ast. Brian Garcia ) João Paulo Dias Fernandes
54' (ast. Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro) Federico Viñas
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 41% win probability (draw 25%, Tigres UANL 32%). The final result was Tigres UANL 3–2 Toluca. In 5 previous meetings, Tigres UANL have won 2 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for Toluca.

Match statistics
20
Total shots
17
13
Shots on target
8
1.81
Actual xG
1.30
6
Saves
10
30%
Possession
70%
5
Corners
6
24
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽Juan Brunetta
6'
33'
Alexis Vega
⚽Guillermo Martinez · ast. Emiliano Gómez
37'
42'
ast. Brian Garcia · João Paulo Dias Fernandes⚽
43'
Brian Garcia
45'+4
Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich
45'
Federico Viñas / Érick Gutiérrez ↕
54'
ast. Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro · Federico Viñas⚽
⚽Juan Brunetta · ast. Fernando Gorriarán
60'
↕ Alan Franco / Vladimir Loroña
69'
↕ Emiliano Gómez / Diego Sánchez
69'
70'
Jesús Angulo / Alexis Vega ↕
71'
Santiago Simon / Brian Garcia ↕
71'
Jorge Diaz / Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro ↕
↕ Guillermo Martinez / Rodrigo Aguirre
77'
↕ Diego Lainez / Jonathan Herrera
77'
↕ Juan Brunetta / Jesús Garza
89'
90'+3
Franco Romero
90'+3
Andres Pereira
90'
Pavel Pérez / Nicolás Castro ↕
Vladimir Loroña
90'
Pre-match prediction
32.09%
Tigres ←
25.98%
X
41.93%
Toluca
we assigned to the actual result (Tigres UANL) 32.09% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Tigres
1.55
1.81
+0.26
Toluca
2.07
1.30
-0.77
Tigres UANL dominated by xG (1.81 vs 1.30). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Club America Club America 13 27
2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 14 26
3 Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas 14 26
4 Atlas Atlas 14 24
5 Toluca Toluca 14 23
6 Leon Leon 14 22
7 Monterrey Monterrey 13 20
8 Club Tijuana Club Tijuana 13 20
9 Club Queretaro Club Queretaro 13 20
10 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 14 19
11 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 14 19
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas 14 17
13 CF Pachuca CF Pachuca 14 16
14 Puebla Puebla 14 16
15 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 14 15
16 Atlante FC Atlante FC 14 14
17 Necaxa Necaxa 14 10
18 FC Juarez FC Juarez 14 5
Lineups
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
1 N. Guzmán N. Guzmán G 6.85
19 M. Laínez M. Laínez D 6.42
33 R. Guerrero R. Guerrero D 6.65
28 Joaquim Joaquim D 6.62
15 A. Franco A. Franco 69' D 6.28
5 C. Araújo C. Araújo M 6.15
8 F. Gorriarán F. Gorriarán 1 👟 M 7.01
9 E. Gómez E. Gómez 1 👟 69' M 7.42
11 J. Brunetta J. Brunetta 2 ⚽ 89' M 9.03
16 D. Lainez D. Lainez 77' M 6.88
22 G. Martínez G. Martínez 1 ⚽ 77' F 8.06
Bench
30 D. Sánchez D. Sánchez 21' F 6.39
25 F. Rodríguez F. Rodríguez G 0.00
184 I. Aceves I. Aceves D 0.00
14 J. Garza J. Garza 1' D 6.10
6 J. Vigón J. Vigón M 0.00
77 O. Herrera O. Herrera 13' F 6.67
17 R. Aguirre R. Aguirre 13' F 6.50
21 R. Monreal R. Monreal F 0.00
34 Simeone Simeone M 0.00
32 V. Loroña V. Loroña 21' D 5.90
Toluca Toluca 4-2-3-1
22 L. García L. García G 8.02
20 J. Gallardo J. Gallardo D 6.44
6 F. Pereira F. Pereira D 6.17
4 B. Méndez B. Méndez D 5.80
17 B. García B. García 1 👟 71' D 6.86
35 É. Gutiérrez É. Gutiérrez 45' M 6.62
5 F. Romero F. Romero M 5.92
9 A. Vega A. Vega 70' M 5.96
8 N. Castro N. Castro 89' M 6.31
11 Helinho Helinho 1 👟 71' M 6.43
26 Paulinho Paulinho 1 ⚽ F 7.46
Bench
2 D. Barbosa D. Barbosa D 0.00
25 E. López E. López D 0.00
24 F. Arce F. Arce M 0.00
16 F. Viñas F. Viñas 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.81
1 H. González H. González G 0.00
10 J. Angulo J. Angulo 20' M 6.20
29 J. Díaz J. Díaz 19' M 5.81
13 Luan Luan D 0.00
15 P. Pérez P. Pérez 1' M 0.00
19 S. Simón S. Simón 19' M 6.11
Best on the pitch
J. Brunetta
J. Brunetta
M · Tigres
9.03
2 ⚽
8 shots · 16 pass
G. Martínez
G. Martínez
F · Tigres
8.06
1 ⚽
5 shots · 8 pass
L. García
L. García
G · Toluca
8.02
· 28 pass
F. Viñas
F. Viñas
F · Toluca
7.81
1 ⚽
3 shots · 16 pass
Paulinho
Paulinho
F · Toluca
7.46
1 ⚽
2 shots · 17 pass
E. Gómez
E. Gómez
M · Tigres
7.42
1 👟
2 shots · 16 pass
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Guzmán G 90 6.85 — — 0 31 12% 0 — —
M. Laínez D 90 6.42 — — 0 16 13% 5 — —
R. Guerrero D 90 6.65 — — 2 13 12% 1 — —
Joaquim D 90 6.62 — — 0 10 3% 6 — —
A. Franco D 69 6.28 — — 0 18 11% 0 — —
C. Araújo M 90 6.15 — — 1 27 22% 2 — —
F. Gorriarán M 90 7.01 — 1 1 40 26% 4 — —
E. Gómez M 69 7.42 — 1 2 16 12% 1 — —
J. Brunetta M 89 9.03 2 — 8 16 13% 0 — —
D. Lainez M 77 6.88 — — 1 20 18% 2 — —
G. Martínez F 77 8.06 1 — 5 8 4% 0 — —
D. Sánchez F 21 6.39 — — 0 4 3% 0 — —
J. Garza D 1 6.10 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
O. Herrera F 13 6.67 — — 0 5 2% 1 — —
R. Aguirre F 13 6.50 — — 0 3 2% 0 — —
V. Loroña D 21 5.90 — — 0 0 0% 2 1 —
Toluca Toluca — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. García G 90 8.02 — — 0 28 22% 0 — —
J. Gallardo D 90 6.44 — — 1 36 33% 3 — —
F. Pereira D 90 6.17 — — 0 78 66% 5 1 —
B. Méndez D 90 5.80 — — 0 60 49% 1 — —
B. García D 71 6.86 — 1 0 34 32% 3 1 —
É. Gutiérrez M 45 6.62 — — 0 35 31% 3 — —
F. Romero M 90 5.92 — — 1 58 52% 2 1 —
A. Vega M 70 5.96 — — 0 32 27% 0 1 —
N. Castro M 89 6.31 — — 5 51 43% 1 — —
Helinho M 71 6.43 — 1 3 40 31% 1 — —
Paulinho F 90 7.46 1 — 2 17 12% 1 — —
F. Viñas F 45 7.81 1 — 3 16 10% 1 — —
J. Angulo M 20 6.20 — — 0 14 10% 1 — —
J. Díaz M 19 5.81 — — 1 16 11% 0 — —
P. Pérez M 1 0.00 — — 0 2 1% 0 — —
S. Simón M 19 6.11 — — 1 20 17% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
The final score was Tigres UANL 3–2 Toluca.
What did the model predict before Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Tigres UANL win, 25% to a draw, and 41% to an Toluca win.