Liga MX
· Apertura - 8
September 13, 2026 01:05
Alexis Vega
19'
(pen.)
Jesús Angulo
(ast. Nicolás Castro)
22'
Federico Viñas
(ast. Bruno Méndez)
29'
João Paulo Dias Fernandes
(ast. Jesús Angulo)
53'
Jorge Rodríguez
60'
(og)
51'
(ast. Luís André Leite Esteves)
Florián Monzón
79'
Luis Lopes
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 48% win probability (draw 27%, Atlas 24%). The final result was Toluca 5–2 Atlas. In 2 previous meetings, Toluca have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Atlas.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
2
0
Saves
2
54%
Possession
46%
6
Corners
8
13
Tackles
27
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
17'
⚽Alexis Vega
(pen.)
19'
⚽Jesús Angulo
· ast. Nicolás Castro
22'
24'
Manuel Capasso
⚽Federico Viñas
· ast. Bruno Méndez
29'
Federico Viñas
/ João Paulo Dias Fernandes
45'
45'
Luis Lopes
/
Arturo González
45'
Sergio Hernández
/
Paulo Ramirez
51'
ast. Luís André Leite Esteves ·
Florián Monzón⚽
⚽João Paulo Dias Fernandes
· ast. Jesús Angulo
53'
Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
57'
57'
Milton Valenzuela
Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
/ Everardo Lopez
58'
⚽Jorge Rodríguez
(og)
60'
62'
Elías Montiel
/
Jorge Sánchez
Jesús Angulo
/ Víctor Guzmán
72'
Nicolás Castro
/ Pavel Pérez
72'
79'
J. Serrato
/
Luís André Leite Esteves
79'
Luis Lopes⚽
81'
J. Serrato
Alexis Vega
/ Luan Garcia
83'
87'
Adrian Mora
/
Manuel Capasso
Pre-match prediction
48.28%
Toluca ←
27.32%
X
24.4%
Atlas
we assigned to the actual result (Toluca)
48.28%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.26
—
—
1.17
—
—
Lineups
12
R. Beltrán
G
R. Beltrán
G
20
J. Gallardo
D
J. Gallardo
D
6
F. Pereira
D
F. Pereira
D
4
B. Méndez
1 👟
D
B. Méndez
1 👟
D
2
D. Barbosa
D
D. Barbosa
D
10
J. Angulo
1 ⚽
1 👟
72'
M
J. Angulo
1 ⚽
1 👟
72'
M
5
F. Romero
M
F. Romero
M
9
A. Vega
1 ⚽
83'
M
A. Vega
1 ⚽
83'
M
8
N. Castro
1 👟
72'
M
N. Castro
1 👟
72'
M
11
Helinho
58'
M
Helinho
58'
M
16
Federico Viñas
1 ⚽
45'
F
Federico Viñas
1 ⚽
45'
F
Bench
3
A. Briseño
D
A. Briseño
D
18
D. Shrem
G
D. Shrem
G
25
E. López
32'
D
E. López
32'
D
24
F. Arce
M
F. Arce
M
13
Luan
7'
D
Luan
7'
D
23
O. Virgen
F
O. Virgen
F
26
Paulinho
1 ⚽
45'
F
Paulinho
1 ⚽
45'
F
15
P. Pérez
18'
M
P. Pérez
18'
M
184
S. Aceves
M
S. Aceves
M
7
V. Guzmán
18'
M
V. Guzmán
18'
M
12
C. Vargas
G
C. Vargas
G
5
J. Rodríguez
1 ⚽
D
J. Rodríguez
1 ⚽
D
16
M. Valenzuela
D
M. Valenzuela
D
28
M. Capasso
87'
D
M. Capasso
87'
D
13
G. Aguirre
D
G. Aguirre
D
3
J. Sánchez
62'
D
J. Sánchez
62'
D
10
Luís Esteves
1 👟
80'
M
Luís Esteves
1 👟
80'
M
15
Paulo Ramírez
45'
M
Paulo Ramírez
45'
M
58
A. González
45'
M
A. González
45'
M
27
V. RÃos
F
V. RÃos
F
9
F. Monzón
1 ⚽
F
F. Monzón
1 ⚽
F
Bench
4
A. Mora
3'
D
A. Mora
3'
D
22
A. Sánchez
G
A. Sánchez
G
11
Duk
1 ⚽
45'
F
Duk
1 ⚽
45'
F
18
E. Montiel
28'
M
E. Montiel
28'
M
192
Jesús Serrato
10'
M
Jesús Serrato
10'
M
17
J. Lozano
D
J. Lozano
D
203
J. Martín
F
J. Martín
F
44
J. Purata
D
J. Purata
D
251
L. Gamboa
F
L. Gamboa
F
23
S. Hernández
45'
M
S. Hernández
45'
M
Best on the pitch
J. Angulo
M · Toluca
8.72
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 22 pass
Federico Viñas
F · Toluca
7.88
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 11 pass
F. Monzón
F · Atlas
7.53
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 25 pass
Paulinho
F · Toluca
7.41
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
Duk
F · Atlas
7.31
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 6 pass
A. Vega
M · Toluca
7.23
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 40 pass
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Beltrán | G | 90 | 6.46 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 90 | 6.96 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Pereira | D | 90 | 6.81 | — | — | 0 | 58 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Méndez | D | 90 | 7.03 | — | 1 | 0 | 63 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Barbosa | D | 90 | 6.25 | — | — | 2 | 40 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Angulo | M | 72 | 8.72 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Romero | M | 90 | 6.42 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Vega | M | 83 | 7.23 | 1 | — | 2 | 40 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Castro | M | 72 | 7.09 | — | 1 | 1 | 22 | 18% | 0 | — | — |
| Helinho | M | 58 | 5.98 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Federico Viñas | F | 45 | 7.88 | 1 | — | 3 | 11 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| E. López | D | 32 | 6.31 | — | — | 0 | 15 | 13% | 0 | — | — |
| Luan | D | 7 | 6.49 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Paulinho | F | 45 | 7.41 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
| P. Pérez | M | 18 | 6.01 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
| V. Guzmán | M | 18 | 6.09 | — | — | 0 | 16 | 14% | 0 | — | — |
Atlas — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Vargas | G | 90 | 5.59 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Rodríguez | D | 90 | 5.15 | 1 | — | 0 | 42 | 36% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Valenzuela | D | 90 | 5.19 | — | — | 0 | 26 | 19% | 5 | 1 | — |
| M. Capasso | D | 87 | 5.44 | — | — | 0 | 31 | 27% | 4 | 1 | — |
| G. Aguirre | D | 90 | 5.95 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Sánchez | D | 62 | 5.64 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Luís Esteves | M | 80 | 6.59 | — | 1 | 2 | 34 | 26% | 0 | — | — |
| Paulo Ramírez | M | 45 | 5.91 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 22% | 0 | — | — |
| A. González | M | 45 | 5.94 | — | — | 0 | 18 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| V. RÃos | F | 90 | 5.75 | — | — | 2 | 49 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Monzón | F | 90 | 7.53 | 1 | — | 1 | 25 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Mora | D | 3 | 5.46 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| Duk | F | 45 | 7.31 | 1 | — | 3 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Montiel | M | 28 | 5.96 | — | — | 0 | 19 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Jesús Serrato | M | 10 | 5.74 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 2% | 3 | 1 | — |
| S. Hernández | M | 45 | 5.82 | — | — | 0 | 16 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs Atlas?
The final score was Toluca 5–2 Atlas.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs Atlas?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Toluca win, 27% to a draw, and 24% to an Atlas win.