Liga MX
· Clausura - 14
April 13, 2026 03:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Toluca, result Draw
F. Rossi
72'
(pen.)
90'+7
Joao Pedro Galvao
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 75% win probability (draw 15%, Atletico San Luis 9%). The final result was Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis. In 1 previous meetings, Toluca have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Atletico San Luis.
Match statistics
20
Total shots
8
10
Shots on target
1
1.10
Actual xG
1.24
0
Saves
9
61%
Possession
39%
3
Corners
1
13
Tackles
9
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Luan
33'
V. Arteaga
/ J. Diaz
46'
Luan
/ E. del Villar
46'
D. Barbosa
/ S. Simon
46'
58'
A. Duarte
/
L. Flores
S. Cordova
/ N. Castro
63'
⚽F. Rossi
72'
73'
M. Garcia
/
R. Meraz
73'
D. Rodriguez
/
J. Medina
F. Rossi
/ F. Romero
75'
83'
S. Munoz
/
O. Macias
P. Perez
90'+3
90'+3
A. Cruz
S. Simon
90'+6
90'+7
(pen.)
Joao Pedro Galvao⚽
Pre-match prediction
75.19%
Toluca
15.25%
X ←
9.56%
Atletico
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
15.25%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.62
1.10
-1.52
0.81
1.24
+0.43
xG dominance was balanced (1.10 – 1.24).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
17
M. Isaís
D
M. Isaís
D
13
Luan
45'
D
Luan
45'
D
3
A. Briseño
D
A. Briseño
D
2
D. Barbosa
45'
D
D. Barbosa
45'
D
24
F. Arce
M
F. Arce
M
33
V. Arteaga
45'
M
V. Arteaga
45'
M
9
A. Vega
M
A. Vega
M
15
P. Pérez
M
P. Pérez
M
7
Sebastián Córdova
63'
M
Sebastián Córdova
63'
M
27
F. Rossi
1 ⚽
75'
F
F. Rossi
1 ⚽
75'
F
Bench
25
Everardo López
45'
D
Everardo López
45'
D
10
J. Angulo
M
J. Angulo
M
29
J. Díaz
45'
M
J. Díaz
45'
M
22
L. García
G
L. García
G
8
N. Castro
27'
M
N. Castro
27'
M
23
O. Virgen
F
O. Virgen
F
19
Santiago Simón
45'
M
Santiago Simón
45'
M
1
A. Sánchez
G
A. Sánchez
G
18
A. Cruz
D
A. Cruz
D
31
E. Águila
D
E. Águila
D
6
D
2
D
21
Ó. Macías
83'
M
Ó. Macías
83'
M
5
R. Meraz
73'
M
R. Meraz
73'
M
10
M
20
L. Flores
58'
M
L. Flores
58'
M
28
J. Medina
73'
M
9
J. Galvão
1 ⚽
F
J. Galvão
1 ⚽
F
Bench
17
A. Duarte
32'
F
A. Duarte
32'
F
7
B. Galdames
M
B. Galdames
M
11
D. Rodríguez
17'
M
D. Rodríguez
17'
M
15
Lucas Esteves
D
Lucas Esteves
D
Best on the pitch
A. Sánchez
G · Atletico
8.20
· 32 pass
D. Barbosa
D · Toluca
7.50
1 shots
· 28 pass
D · Atletico
7.30
· 56 pass
A. Vega
M · Toluca
7.30
4 shots
· 46 pass
J. Medina
M · Atletico
7.20
1 shots
· 21 pass
F. Arce
M · Toluca
7.20
1 shots
· 81 pass
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 33% | — | — | — | |
| M. Isaís | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 41 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Luan | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 40% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Briseño | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 68 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Barbosa | D | 45 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Arce | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 81 | 74% | 3 | — | — |
| V. Arteaga | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Vega | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 4 | 46 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| P. Pérez | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 57 | 51% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Sebastián Córdova | M | 63 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 24% | — | — | — |
| F. Rossi | F | 75 | 6.30 | 1 | — | 6 | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Everardo López | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 32% | — | — | — |
| J. Díaz | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| N. Castro | M | 27 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 41 | 34% | 2 | 1 | — |
Atletico San Luis — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sánchez | G | 90 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 24% | — | — | — |
| A. Cruz | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 33% | 4 | 1 | — |
| E. Águila | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 49 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 46% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 25% | 1 | — | — | |
| Ó. Macías | M | 83 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Meraz | M | 73 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 33 | 26% | — | — | — | |
| L. Flores | M | 58 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
| J. Medina | M | 73 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Galvão | F | 90 | 6.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 15 | 6% | — | — | — |
| A. Duarte | F | 32 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| D. Rodríguez | M | 17 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
The final score was Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
The model assigned 75% probability to a Toluca win, 15% to a draw, and 9% to an Atletico San Luis win.