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Liga MX · Apertura - 12 October 18, 2026 03:00 Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca
Toluca
#5 · 23 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Atletico San Luis
#11 · 19 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Toluca, result Draw
Érick Gutiérrez 67'
73' Rafael Llorente
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 58% win probability (draw 21%, Atletico San Luis 20%). The final result was Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis. In 2 previous meetings, Toluca have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Atletico San Luis.

Match statistics
1
Shots on target
1
55%
Possession
45%
15
Corners
2
Match Events
⚽Érick Gutiérrez
67'
73'
Rafael Llorente⚽
83'
Leonardo Flores / Rafael Llorente ↕
83'
Juanpe / Anderson Duarte ↕
87'
Miguel García / David Rodriguez ↕
88'
Benjamín Galdames / Sebastien Salles-lamonge ↕
Pre-match prediction
58.23%
Toluca
21.4%
X ←
20.38%
Atletico
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 21.4% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Toluca
2.80
—
—
Atletico
1.38
—
—
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Club America Club America 13 27
2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 14 26
3 Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara Chivas 14 26
4 Atlas Atlas 14 24
5 Toluca Toluca 14 23
6 Leon Leon 14 22
7 Monterrey Monterrey 13 20
8 Club Tijuana Club Tijuana 13 20
9 Club Queretaro Club Queretaro 13 20
10 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 14 19
11 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 14 19
12 U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas 14 17
13 CF Pachuca CF Pachuca 14 16
14 Puebla Puebla 14 16
15 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 14 15
16 Atlante FC Atlante FC 14 14
17 Necaxa Necaxa 14 10
18 FC Juarez FC Juarez 14 5
Lineups
Toluca Toluca 4-2-3-1
1 H. González H. González G 6.10
20 J. Gallardo J. Gallardo D 6.80
6 F. Pereira F. Pereira D 6.50
25 E. López E. López D 6.90
19 S. Simón S. Simón D 6.50
35 É. Gutiérrez É. Gutiérrez 1 ⚽ M 7.45
5 F. Romero F. Romero M 6.35
9 A. Vega A. Vega M 6.25
16 F. Viñas F. Viñas M 5.95
11 Helinho Helinho M 6.35
26 Paulinho Paulinho F 6.40
Bench
17 B. García B. García D 0.00
4 B. Méndez B. Méndez D 0.00
2 D. Barbosa D. Barbosa D 0.00
24 F. Arce F. Arce M 0.00
10 J. Angulo J. Angulo M 0.00
29 J. Díaz J. Díaz M 0.00
22 L. García L. García G 0.00
13 Luan Luan D 0.00
8 N. Castro N. Castro M 0.00
15 P. Pérez P. Pérez M 0.00
Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 3-4-3
25 G. Lajud G. Lajud G 6.10
18 A. Cruz A. Cruz D 6.40
31 E. Águila E. Águila D 6.70
3 Robson Bambu Robson Bambu D 6.60
5 R. Meraz R. Meraz M 6.05
10 S. Salles-Lamonge S. Salles-Lamonge 88' M 6.75
21 Ó. Macías Ó. Macías M 6.55
2 R. Torres R. Torres M 5.95
22 Rafa Llorente Rafa Llorente 1 ⚽ 83' F 6.99
17 A. Duarte A. Duarte 83' F 6.20
11 D. Rodríguez D. Rodríguez 87' F 6.80
Bench
1 A. Sánchez A. Sánchez G 0.00
7 B. Galdames B. Galdames 2' M 6.35
30 B. Galindo B. Galindo D 0.00
99 F. Mora F. Mora F 0.00
13 J. Caicedo J. Caicedo M 0.00
6 Juanpe Juanpe 7' D 6.50
20 L. Flores L. Flores 7' F 6.50
14 M. García M. García 3' M 6.35
19 S. Muñóz S. Muñóz F 0.00
26 S. Pérez Bouquet S. Pérez Bouquet M 0.00
Best on the pitch
É. Gutiérrez
É. Gutiérrez
M · Toluca
7.45
1 ⚽
Rafa Llorente
Rafa Llorente
F · Atletico
6.99
1 ⚽
E. López
E. López
D · Toluca
6.90
J. Gallardo
J. Gallardo
D · Toluca
6.80
D. Rodríguez
D. Rodríguez
F · Atletico
6.80
S. Salles-Lamonge
S. Salles-Lamonge
M · Atletico
6.75
Toluca Toluca — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
H. González G 90 6.10 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
J. Gallardo D 90 6.80 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
F. Pereira D 90 6.50 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
E. López D 90 6.90 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
S. Simón D 90 6.50 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
É. Gutiérrez M 90 7.45 1 — 0 0 0% 0 — —
F. Romero M 90 6.35 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
A. Vega M 90 6.25 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
F. Viñas M 90 5.95 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Helinho M 90 6.35 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Paulinho F 90 6.40 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Lajud G 90 6.10 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
A. Cruz D 90 6.40 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
E. Águila D 90 6.70 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Robson Bambu D 90 6.60 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
R. Meraz M 90 6.05 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
S. Salles-Lamonge M 88 6.75 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Ó. Macías M 90 6.55 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
R. Torres M 90 5.95 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Rafa Llorente F 83 6.99 1 — 0 0 0% 0 — —
A. Duarte F 83 6.20 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
D. Rodríguez F 87 6.80 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
B. Galdames M 2 6.35 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Juanpe D 7 6.50 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
L. Flores F 7 6.50 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
M. García M 3 6.35 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
The final score was Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Toluca win, 21% to a draw, and 20% to an Atletico San Luis win.