✗Model wrong — prediction Toluca, result Draw
Federico Viñas
(ast. Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro)
61'
Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
(ast. Nicolás Castro)
65'
38'
(ast. Yael Padilla)
Elias Manoel
75'
(ast. Rafael Fernández)
Yael Padilla
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 60% win probability (draw 19%, Club Tijuana 19%). The final result was Toluca 2–2 Club Tijuana. In 2 previous meetings, Toluca have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Club Tijuana.
Match statistics
32
Total shots
12
6
Shots on target
4
2.20
Actual xG
1.44
2
Saves
4
76%
Possession
24%
17
Corners
5
6
Tackles
20
Match Events
38'
ast. Yael Padilla ·
Elias Manoel⚽
Jesús Angulo
/ Federico Viñas
45'
Diego Barbosa
/ Brian Garcia
45'
57'
Mourad El Ghezouani
/
Elias Manoel
57'
Adonis Preciado
/
Joban González Cera
⚽Federico Viñas
· ast. Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
61'
⚽Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
· ast. Nicolás Castro
65'
67'
José Rivero
/
Angel Zapata
75'
ast. Rafael Fernández ·
Yael Padilla⚽
82'
Jesus Gomez
/
Ramiro Árciga
82'
Francisco González
/
Yael Padilla
Nicolás Castro
/ Érick Gutiérrez
83'
Alexis Vega
/ Jorge Diaz
83'
Pre-match prediction
60.76%
Toluca
19.85%
X ←
19.39%
Club
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
19.85%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.12
2.20
-0.92
1.53
1.44
-0.09
Toluca dominated by xG (2.20 vs 1.44).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
L. García
G
L. García
G
20
J. Gallardo
D
J. Gallardo
D
25
E. López
D
E. López
D
6
F. Pereira
D
F. Pereira
D
2
D. Barbosa
45'
D
D. Barbosa
45'
D
8
N. Castro
1 👟
83'
M
N. Castro
1 👟
83'
M
5
F. Romero
M
F. Romero
M
9
A. Vega
83'
M
A. Vega
83'
M
10
J. Angulo
45'
M
J. Angulo
45'
M
11
Helinho
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
Helinho
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
26
Paulinho
F
Paulinho
F
Bench
17
B. García
45'
D
B. García
45'
D
4
B. Méndez
D
B. Méndez
D
35
É. Gutiérrez
7'
M
É. Gutiérrez
7'
M
24
F. Arce
M
F. Arce
M
16
F. Viñas
1 ⚽
45'
F
F. Viñas
1 ⚽
45'
F
1
H. González
G
H. González
G
29
J. Díaz
7'
M
J. Díaz
7'
M
13
Luan
D
Luan
D
15
P. Pérez
M
P. Pérez
M
19
S. Simón
M
S. Simón
M
2
A. Rodríguez
G
A. Rodríguez
G
33
P. Ortíz
D
P. Ortíz
D
4
Unai Bilbao
D
Unai Bilbao
D
12
J. Porozo
D
J. Porozo
D
3
R. Fernández
1 👟
D
R. Fernández
1 👟
D
20
Á. Zapata
67'
M
Á. Zapata
67'
M
202
J. González
57'
M
J. González
57'
M
31
Y. Padilla
1 ⚽
1 👟
82'
M
Y. Padilla
1 ⚽
1 👟
82'
M
34
F. Boya
M
F. Boya
M
17
R. Árciga
82'
M
R. Árciga
82'
M
13
Elias Manoel
1 ⚽
57'
F
Elias Manoel
1 ⚽
57'
F
Bench
7
Adonis Preciado
33'
F
Adonis Preciado
33'
F
6
A. Gómez
8'
D
A. Gómez
8'
D
18
A. Mejía
D
A. Mejía
D
19
D. Abreu
F
D. Abreu
F
11
F. González
8'
F
F. González
8'
F
192
I. Olvera
D
I. Olvera
D
15
I. Rivero
23'
M
I. Rivero
23'
M
8
I. Tona
M
I. Tona
M
9
Mourad
33'
F
Mourad
33'
F
29
S. Hernández
G
S. Hernández
G
Best on the pitch
Helinho
M · Toluca
9.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 60 pass
F. Viñas
F · Toluca
8.16
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 10 pass
Y. Padilla
M · Club
8.07
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 15 pass
Elias Manoel
F · Club
7.65
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 4 pass
N. Castro
M · Toluca
7.57
1 👟
4 shots
· 67 pass
A. Vega
M · Toluca
7.20
4 shots
· 43 pass
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. García | G | 90 | 6.11 | — | — | 0 | 15 | 15% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 48 | 43% | 0 | — | — |
| E. López | D | 90 | 6.40 | — | — | 1 | 71 | 67% | 0 | — | — |
| F. Pereira | D | 90 | 6.84 | — | — | 2 | 66 | 62% | 0 | — | — |
| D. Barbosa | D | 45 | 6.40 | — | — | 0 | 32 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Castro | M | 83 | 7.57 | — | 1 | 4 | 67 | 59% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Romero | M | 90 | 6.55 | — | — | 0 | 61 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Vega | M | 83 | 7.20 | — | — | 4 | 43 | 37% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Angulo | M | 45 | 6.83 | — | — | 3 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Helinho | M | 90 | 9.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 60 | 51% | 0 | — | — |
| Paulinho | F | 90 | 6.28 | — | — | 4 | 13 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| B. García | D | 45 | 6.74 | — | — | 3 | 24 | 23% | 0 | — | — |
| É. Gutiérrez | M | 7 | 6.05 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
| F. Viñas | F | 45 | 8.16 | 1 | — | 5 | 10 | 9% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Díaz | M | 7 | 6.17 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
Club Tijuana — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rodríguez | G | 90 | 7.04 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 18% | 0 | — | — |
| P. Ortíz | D | 90 | 6.25 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Unai Bilbao | D | 90 | 6.37 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Porozo | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Fernández | D | 90 | 6.29 | — | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| Á. Zapata | M | 67 | 6.36 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | 3 | — | — |
| J. González | M | 57 | 6.03 | — | — | 0 | 7 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Padilla | M | 82 | 8.07 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Boya | M | 90 | 6.21 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Árciga | M | 82 | 5.88 | — | — | 0 | 10 | 4% | 5 | — | — |
| Elias Manoel | F | 57 | 7.65 | 1 | — | 4 | 4 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| Adonis Preciado | F | 33 | 6.61 | — | — | 0 | 6 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Gómez | D | 8 | 6.10 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| F. González | F | 8 | 6.55 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| I. Rivero | M | 23 | 6.11 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Mourad | F | 33 | 6.81 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs Club Tijuana?
The final score was Toluca 2–2 Club Tijuana.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs Club Tijuana?
The model assigned 60% probability to a Toluca win, 19% to a draw, and 19% to an Club Tijuana win.