Toluca 4–1 Leon — pre-match prediction — Liga MX — April 26, 2026

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Liga MX · Clausura - 17 April 26, 2026 03:05

Toluca

#1 · 37 pts

4 – 1

Final score

Leon

#10 · 22 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Toluca

S. Cordova (ast. A. Vega) 5'

F. Arce (ast. J. Gallardo) 59'

J. Diaz (ast. J. Gallardo) 73'

N. Castro (ast. J. Diaz) 76'

45'+3 (ast. I. Diaz) D. Cambindo

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 58% win probability (draw 22%, Leon 19%). The final result was Toluca 4–1 Leon. In 1 previous meetings, Toluca have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Leon.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.94

Actual xG

1.07

Saves

42%

Possession

58%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

⚽S. Cordova · ast. A. Vega

L. Garcia

21'

F. Rossi

22'

23'

E. Rodriguez

↕ O. Virgen / F. Romero

27'

34'

S. Barreiro

45'+3

ast. I. Diaz · D. Cambindo⚽

46'

P. Bellon / S. Barreiro ↕

46'

B. Colula / I. Moreno ↕

↕ F. Rossi / J. Diaz

46'

↕ M. Isais / J. Gallardo

46'

56'

J. P. Dominguez Chonteco / E. Rodriguez ↕

56'

D. Arcila / F. Beltran Cruz ↕

A. Briseno

58'

⚽F. Arce · ast. J. Gallardo

59'

↕ E. Orta / Bruno Mendez

63'

A. Briseno

65'

A. Briseno

65'

70'

A. Alvarado / R. Echeverria ↕

↕ S. Cordova / N. Castro

72'

⚽J. Diaz · ast. J. Gallardo

73'

J. Diaz

73'

⚽N. Castro · ast. J. Diaz

76'

80'

B. Colula

Pre-match prediction

58.46%

Toluca ←

22.45%

19.09%

Leon

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Toluca) 58.46% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Toluca

1.99

0.94

-1.05

Leon

1.11

1.07

-0.04

xG dominance was balanced (0.94 – 1.07). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Monterrey	2	3
1	Toluca	17	37
1	Guadalajara Chivas	16	35
1	Toluca	2	3
1	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	17	36
1	CF Pachuca	1	3
1	Cruz Azul	2	4
1	FC Juarez	1	3
2	Tigres UANL	17	36
2	Tigres UANL	2	3
2	Toluca	2	3
2	CF Pachuca	1	0
2	Guadalajara Chivas	17	36
2	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	16	33
2	Toluca	2	4
2	Club Tijuana	1	3
3	Tigres UANL	2	3
3	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	1	0
3	Cruz Azul	17	35
3	Cruz Azul	17	33
3	Cruz Azul	2	2
3	CF Pachuca	16	31
4	Tigres UANL	2	2
4	Cruz Azul	16	30
4	Monterrey	2	3
4	Club America	17	34
4	FC Juarez	1	0
4	CF Pachuca	17	31
5	Toluca	16	27
5	Toluca	17	30
5	Monterrey	17	31
5	Club America	2	3
6	Atlas	17	26
6	Guadalajara Chivas	17	29
6	Club Tijuana	2	3
6	Club America	16	25
7	Atlas	16	23
7	Tigres UANL	17	25
7	Club Tijuana	17	24
7	Guadalajara Chivas	2	1
8	FC Juarez	17	23
8	Club America	17	25
8	FC Juarez	2	1
8	Tigres UANL	16	22
9	Club Tijuana	17	23
9	CF Pachuca	17	22
9	Club Tijuana	16	22
10	Leon	16	22
10	Leon	17	22
10	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	17	21
11	Santos Laguna	17	20
11	Club Queretaro	17	20
11	Club Queretaro	17	20
12	Club Queretaro	17	20
12	FC Juarez	17	19
12	Monterrey	16	18
13	Monterrey	17	18
13	Atletico San Luis	16	18
13	Necaxa	17	17
14	Atletico San Luis	17	18
14	Atlas	17	17
14	Necaxa	16	18
15	Necaxa	17	18
15	FC Juarez	16	16
15	Atletico San Luis	17	16
16	Mazatlán	17	15
16	Mazatlán	17	14
16	Mazatlán	16	15
17	Leon	17	13
17	Puebla	17	13
17	Puebla	17	13
18	Santos Laguna	17	12
18	Puebla	17	12
18	Santos Laguna	16	9

Lineups

Toluca 4-2-3-1

Luis García G 6.70

Mauricio Isais 45' D 6.20

206

Erick Orta 63' D 6.70

Antonio Briseño 65' D 6.30

Diego Barbosa D 6.90

Pavel Pérez M 6.60

Fernando Arce Juárez 1 ⚽ M 7.60

A. Vega 1 👟 M 7.30

Sebastián Córdova 1 ⚽ 72' M 7.70

O. Virgen 27' M 6.30

Franco Rossi 45' F 6.20

Bench

Jesús Ricardo Angulo M

J. Gallardo 2 👟 45' D 8.20

Jorge Díaz 1 ⚽ 1 👟 45' M 8.00

Nicolás Castro 1 ⚽ 18' M 7.90

Victor Arteaga M

Leon 4-1-4-1

G 5.20

S. Reyes D 5.30

S. Barreiro 45' D 5.90

V. Gauthier D 5.60

I. Moreno 45' D 6.70

M 6.90

I. Díaz 1 👟 M 6.30

Fernando Beltrán 56' M 6.50

R. Echeverria 70' M 7.20

E. Rodriguez 56' M 6.30

D. Cambindo 1 ⚽ F 7.70

Bench

B. Colula 45' D 5.90

D. Arcila 34' M 6.30

J. P. Dominguez Chonteco 34' M 6.50

N. Vallejo F

Best on the pitch

J. Gallardo

D · Toluca

8.20

2 👟

2 shots · 21 pass

Jorge Díaz

M · Toluca

8.00

1 ⚽ 1 👟

2 shots · 12 pass

Nicolás Castro

M · Toluca

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 22 pass

Sebastián Córdova

M · Toluca

7.70

1 ⚽

2 shots · 19 pass

D. Cambindo

F · Leon

7.70

1 ⚽

3 shots · 38 pass

Fernando Arce Juárez

M · Toluca

7.60

1 ⚽

1 shots · 26 pass

Toluca — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Luis García	G	90	6.70	—	—	—	27	14%	—	1	—
Mauricio Isais	D	45	6.20	—	—	—	7	4%	—	—	—
Erick Orta	D	63	6.70	—	—	—	21	11%	3	—	—
Antonio Briseño	D	65	6.30	—	—	—	14	11%	1	2	1
Diego Barbosa	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	34	30%	3	—	—
Pavel Pérez	M	90	6.60	—	—	—	26	22%	1	—	—
Fernando Arce Juárez	M	90	7.60	1	—	1	26	20%	2	—	—
A. Vega	M	90	7.30	—	1	2	43	35%	2	—	—
Sebastián Córdova	M	72	7.70	1	—	2	19	15%	1	—	—
O. Virgen	M	27	6.30	—	—	—	2	1%	—	—	—
Franco Rossi	F	45	6.20	—	—	2	3	2%	—	1	—
J. Gallardo	D	45	8.20	—	2	2	21	17%	1	—	—
Jorge Díaz	M	45	8.00	1	1	2	12	8%	—	1	—
Nicolás Castro	M	18	7.90	1	—	1	22	18%	1	—	—

Leon — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	5.20	—	—	—	34	30%	—	—	—
S. Reyes	D	90	5.30	—	—	2	29	24%	1	—	—
S. Barreiro	D	45	5.90	—	—	—	28	18%	—	1	—
V. Gauthier	D	90	5.60	—	—	—	37	31%	1	—	—
I. Moreno	D	45	6.70	—	—	—	15	11%	3	—	—
	M	90	6.90	—	—	—	55	49%	2	—	—
I. Díaz	M	90	6.30	—	1	2	34	29%	—	—	—
Fernando Beltrán	M	56	6.50	—	—	1	32	27%	—	—	—
R. Echeverria	M	70	7.20	—	—	1	38	32%	2	—	—
E. Rodriguez	M	56	6.30	—	—	—	21	15%	—	1	—
D. Cambindo	F	90	7.70	1	—	3	38	34%	1	—	—
B. Colula	D	45	5.90	—	—	—	15	12%	2	1	—
D. Arcila	M	34	6.30	—	—	1	24	20%	—	—	—
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco	M	34	6.50	—	—	—	13	12%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Toluca vs Leon?

The final score was Toluca 4–1 Leon.

What did the model predict before Toluca vs Leon?

The model assigned 58% probability to a Toluca win, 22% to a draw, and 19% to an Leon win.