Liga MX
· Clausura - 17
April 26, 2026 03:05
✓Model correct — prediction Toluca
S. Cordova
(ast. A. Vega)
5'
F. Arce
(ast. J. Gallardo)
59'
J. Diaz
(ast. J. Gallardo)
73'
N. Castro
(ast. J. Diaz)
76'
45'+3
(ast. I. Diaz)
D. Cambindo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 58% win probability (draw 22%, Leon 19%). The final result was Toluca 4–1 Leon. In 3 previous meetings, Toluca have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Leon.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
10
7
Shots on target
5
0.94
Actual xG
1.07
4
Saves
3
42%
Possession
58%
2
Corners
7
15
Tackles
13
5
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
⚽S. Cordova
· ast. A. Vega
5'
L. Garcia
21'
F. Rossi
22'
23'
E. Rodriguez
O. Virgen
/ F. Romero
27'
34'
S. Barreiro
45'+3
ast. I. Diaz ·
D. Cambindo⚽
46'
P. Bellon
/
S. Barreiro
46'
B. Colula
/
I. Moreno
F. Rossi
/ J. Diaz
46'
M. Isais
/ J. Gallardo
46'
56'
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
/
E. Rodriguez
56'
D. Arcila
/
F. Beltran Cruz
A. Briseno
58'
⚽F. Arce
· ast. J. Gallardo
59'
E. Orta
/ Bruno Mendez
63'
A. Briseno
65'
A. Briseno
65'
70'
A. Alvarado
/
R. Echeverria
S. Cordova
/ N. Castro
72'
⚽J. Diaz
· ast. J. Gallardo
73'
J. Diaz
73'
⚽N. Castro
· ast. J. Diaz
76'
80'
B. Colula
Pre-match prediction
58.46%
Toluca ←
22.45%
X
19.09%
Leon
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Toluca)
58.46%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.99
0.94
-1.05
1.11
1.07
-0.04
xG dominance was balanced (0.94 – 1.07).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
L. García
G
L. García
G
17
M. Isaís
45'
D
M. Isaís
45'
D
206
Erick Orta
63'
D
Erick Orta
63'
D
3
A. Briseño
65'
D
A. Briseño
65'
D
2
D. Barbosa
D
D. Barbosa
D
15
P. Pérez
M
P. Pérez
M
24
F. Arce
1 ⚽
M
F. Arce
1 ⚽
M
9
A. Vega
1 👟
M
A. Vega
1 👟
M
7
Sebastián Córdova
1 ⚽
72'
M
Sebastián Córdova
1 ⚽
72'
M
23
O. Virgen
27'
M
O. Virgen
27'
M
27
F. Rossi
45'
F
F. Rossi
45'
F
Bench
10
J. Angulo
M
J. Angulo
M
29
J. Díaz
1 ⚽
1 👟
45'
M
J. Díaz
1 ⚽
1 👟
45'
M
20
J. Gallardo
2 👟
45'
D
J. Gallardo
2 👟
45'
D
8
N. Castro
1 ⚽
18'
M
N. Castro
1 ⚽
18'
M
33
V. Arteaga
M
V. Arteaga
M
23
G
26
S. Reyes
D
S. Reyes
D
21
Stiven Barreiro
45'
D
Stiven Barreiro
45'
D
2
V. Gauthier
D
7
I. Moreno
45'
D
I. Moreno
45'
D
29
M
11
I. Díaz
1 👟
M
I. Díaz
1 👟
M
6
F. Beltrán
56'
M
F. Beltrán
56'
M
20
R. Echeverría
70'
M
R. Echeverría
70'
M
99
M. Rodríguez
56'
M
M. Rodríguez
56'
M
27
D. Cambindo
1 ⚽
F
D. Cambindo
1 ⚽
F
Bench
4
B. Colula
45'
D
B. Colula
45'
D
13
D. Arcila
34'
M
D. Arcila
34'
M
8
J. Domínguez
34'
M
J. Domínguez
34'
M
22
N. Vallejo
F
N. Vallejo
F
Best on the pitch
J. Gallardo
D · Toluca
8.20
2 👟
2 shots
· 21 pass
J. Díaz
M · Toluca
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 12 pass
N. Castro
M · Toluca
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 22 pass
Sebastián Córdova
M · Toluca
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
D. Cambindo
F · Leon
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 38 pass
F. Arce
M · Toluca
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 26 pass
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. García | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Isaís | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Erick Orta | D | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Briseño | D | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| D. Barbosa | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| P. Pérez | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Arce | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Vega | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 43 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Sebastián Córdova | M | 72 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 19 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Virgen | M | 27 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| F. Rossi | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Díaz | M | 45 | 8.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 45 | 8.20 | — | 2 | 2 | 21 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Castro | M | 18 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 22 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
Leon — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 5.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | — | — | — | |
| S. Reyes | D | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Stiven Barreiro | D | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
| V. Gauthier | D | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 37 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Moreno | D | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 55 | 49% | 2 | — | — | |
| I. Díaz | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 34 | 29% | — | — | — |
| F. Beltrán | M | 56 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 27% | — | — | — |
| R. Echeverría | M | 70 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Rodríguez | M | 56 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Cambindo | F | 90 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 38 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Colula | D | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D. Arcila | M | 34 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | — | — | — |
| J. Domínguez | M | 34 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs Leon?
The final score was Toluca 4–1 Leon.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs Leon?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Toluca win, 22% to a draw, and 19% to an Leon win.