Liga MX
· Clausura - 17
April 26, 2026 03:05
✓Model correct — prediction Toluca
S. Cordova
(ast. A. Vega)
5'
F. Arce
(ast. J. Gallardo)
59'
J. Diaz
(ast. J. Gallardo)
73'
N. Castro
(ast. J. Diaz)
76'
45'+3
(ast. I. Diaz)
D. Cambindo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 58% win probability (draw 22%, Leon 19%). The final result was Toluca 4–1 Leon. In 1 previous meetings, Toluca have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Leon.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
10
7
Shots on target
5
0.94
Actual xG
1.07
4
Saves
3
42%
Possession
58%
2
Corners
7
15
Tackles
13
5
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
⚽S. Cordova
· ast. A. Vega
5'
L. Garcia
21'
F. Rossi
22'
23'
E. Rodriguez
O. Virgen
/ F. Romero
27'
34'
S. Barreiro
45'+3
ast. I. Diaz ·
D. Cambindo⚽
46'
P. Bellon
/
S. Barreiro
46'
B. Colula
/
I. Moreno
F. Rossi
/ J. Diaz
46'
M. Isais
/ J. Gallardo
46'
56'
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
/
E. Rodriguez
56'
D. Arcila
/
F. Beltran Cruz
A. Briseno
58'
⚽F. Arce
· ast. J. Gallardo
59'
E. Orta
/ Bruno Mendez
63'
A. Briseno
65'
A. Briseno
65'
70'
A. Alvarado
/
R. Echeverria
S. Cordova
/ N. Castro
72'
⚽J. Diaz
· ast. J. Gallardo
73'
J. Diaz
73'
⚽N. Castro
· ast. J. Diaz
76'
80'
B. Colula
Pre-match prediction
58.46%
Toluca ←
22.45%
X
19.09%
Leon
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Toluca)
58.46%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.99
0.94
-1.05
1.11
1.07
-0.04
xG dominance was balanced (0.94 – 1.07).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Luis García
G
Luis García
G
17
M. Isaís
45'
D
M. Isaís
45'
D
206
Erick Orta
63'
D
Erick Orta
63'
D
3
Antonio Briseño
65'
D
Antonio Briseño
65'
D
2
Diego Barbosa
D
Diego Barbosa
D
15
Pavel Pérez
M
Pavel Pérez
M
24
Fernando Arce Juárez
1 ⚽
M
Fernando Arce Juárez
1 ⚽
M
9
Alexis Vega
1 👟
M
Alexis Vega
1 👟
M
7
S. Córdova
1 ⚽
72'
M
S. Córdova
1 ⚽
72'
M
23
O. Virgen
27'
M
27
Franco Rossi
45'
F
Franco Rossi
45'
F
Bench
10
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
M
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
M
20
J. Gallardo
2 👟
45'
D
J. Gallardo
2 👟
45'
D
29
Jorge Díaz
1 ⚽
1 👟
45'
M
Jorge Díaz
1 ⚽
1 👟
45'
M
8
Nicolás Castro
1 ⚽
18'
M
Nicolás Castro
1 ⚽
18'
M
33
V. Arteaga
M
V. Arteaga
M
23
G
26
Salvador Reyes
D
Salvador Reyes
D
21
S. Barreiro
45'
D
S. Barreiro
45'
D
2
V. Gauthier
D
7
Iván Moreno
45'
D
Iván Moreno
45'
D
29
M
11
I. Díaz
1 👟
M
I. Díaz
1 👟
M
6
Fernando Beltrán
56'
M
Fernando Beltrán
56'
M
20
R. Echeverría
70'
M
R. Echeverría
70'
M
99
Emilio Rodriguez
56'
M
Emilio Rodriguez
56'
M
27
D. Cambindo
1 ⚽
F
D. Cambindo
1 ⚽
F
Bench
4
Bryan Colula
45'
D
Bryan Colula
45'
D
13
D. Arcila
34'
M
D. Arcila
34'
M
8
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
34'
M
22
N. Vallejo
F
N. Vallejo
F
Best on the pitch
J. Gallardo
D · Toluca
8.20
2 👟
2 shots
· 21 pass
Jorge Díaz
M · Toluca
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 12 pass
Nicolás Castro
M · Toluca
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 22 pass
S. Córdova
M · Toluca
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
D. Cambindo
F · Leon
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 38 pass
Fernando Arce Juárez
M · Toluca
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 26 pass
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis García | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Isaís | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Erick Orta | D | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| Antonio Briseño | D | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Diego Barbosa | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| Pavel Pérez | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Fernando Arce Juárez | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Alexis Vega | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 43 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Córdova | M | 72 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 19 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Virgen | M | 27 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Franco Rossi | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 45 | 8.20 | — | 2 | 2 | 21 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorge Díaz | M | 45 | 8.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| Nicolás Castro | M | 18 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 22 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
Leon — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 5.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | — | — | — | |
| Salvador Reyes | D | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Barreiro | D | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
| V. Gauthier | D | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 37 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| Iván Moreno | D | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 55 | 49% | 2 | — | — | |
| I. Díaz | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 34 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Fernando Beltrán | M | 56 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 27% | — | — | — |
| R. Echeverría | M | 70 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Emilio Rodriguez | M | 56 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Cambindo | F | 90 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 38 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Bryan Colula | D | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D. Arcila | M | 34 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | — | — | — |
| J. P. Dominguez Chonteco | M | 34 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs Leon?
The final score was Toluca 4–1 Leon.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs Leon?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Toluca win, 22% to a draw, and 19% to an Leon win.