Leagues Cup
· Semi-finals
September 03, 2026 03:00
F. Pereira
41'
F. Vinas
(ast. J. Diaz Price)
69'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 49% win probability (draw 29%, Leon 21%). The final result was Toluca 2–0 Leon. In 2 previous meetings, Toluca have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Leon.
Match statistics
7
Shots on target
1
4.09
Actual xG
1.20
56%
Possession
44%
4
Corners
5
Match Events
18'
J. Gandolfi
26'
I. Martinez
Bruno Mendez
39'
39'
J. Guevara
⚽F. Pereira
41'
N. Castro
44'
53'
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
/
J. Cortizo
53'
I. Moreno
/
S. Vegas
A. Vega
/ J. Diaz Price
62'
⚽F. Vinas
· ast. J. Diaz Price
69'
73'
A. Alvarado
/
F. Beltran Cruz
73'
I. Diaz
/
R. Echeverria
B. A. Garcia Caprizo
/ D. Barbosa
73'
75'
J. Romana
75'
J. Romana
75'
J. Romana
75'
B. Colula
80'
D. Arcila
82'
P. Bellon
/
J. Guevara
N. Castro
/ P. Perez
84'
J. Gallardo
/ F. Arce
84'
Helinho
/ J. Angulo
84'
Bruno Mendez
89'
Bruno Mendez
89'
Pre-match prediction
49.26%
Toluca ←
29.55%
X
21.19%
Leon
we assigned to the actual result (Toluca)
49.26%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.23
4.09
+2.86
0.57
1.20
+0.63
Toluca dominated by xG (4.09 vs 1.20).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs Leon?
The final score was Toluca 2–0 Leon.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs Leon?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Toluca win, 29% to a draw, and 21% to an Leon win.