Liga MX
· Apertura - 3
August 03, 2026 03:10
I. Lopez
(ast. J. Gallardo)
29'
E. del Villar
(ast. I. Lopez)
45'+5
L. Jimenez
57'
(og)
42'
(ast. A. Pena)
J. Carranza
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 39% win probability (draw 30%, Necaxa 30%). The final result was Toluca 3–1 Necaxa. In 2 previous meetings, Toluca have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Necaxa.
Match statistics
19
Total shots
7
7
Shots on target
3
1.51
Actual xG
1.32
1
Saves
5
75%
Possession
25%
6
Corners
2
15
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
0
🟥 Red cards
2
Match Events
⚽I. Lopez
· ast. J. Gallardo
29'
42'
ast. A. Pena ·
J. Carranza⚽
45'+4
R. Martinez
⚽E. del Villar
· ast. I. Lopez
45'+5
45'+7
J. Carranza
45'+7
A. Oliveros
46'
P. Pedraza
/
J. P. Torres Patino
46'
M. Zaleta
/
C. Vargas
46'
J. Valencia
/
J. Ruiz
⚽L. Jimenez
(og)
57'
J. Diaz Price
/ V. Guzman
59'
I. Lopez
/ F. Vinas
59'
J. Angulo
/ P. Perez
65'
E. Gutierrez
/ Helinho
65'
67'
M. Espindola
/
L. Faravelli
80'
A. Oliveros
80'
A. Oliveros
85'
F. Mendez
/
D. Leyva
F. Romero
90'+7
90'+7
J. Valencia
A. Vega
/ A. Briseno
90'
Pre-match prediction
39.55%
Toluca ←
30.33%
X
30.12%
Necaxa
we assigned to the actual result (Toluca)
39.55%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.40
1.51
+0.11
1.28
1.32
+0.04
xG dominance was balanced (1.51 – 1.32).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
22
L. García
G
L. García
G
20
J. Gallardo
1 👟
D
J. Gallardo
1 👟
D
6
F. Pereira
D
F. Pereira
D
25
E. López
1 ⚽
D
E. López
1 ⚽
D
19
S. Simón
D
S. Simón
D
5
F. Romero
M
F. Romero
M
29
J. Díaz
59'
M
J. Díaz
59'
M
9
A. Vega
89'
M
A. Vega
89'
M
35
É. Gutiérrez
65'
M
É. Gutiérrez
65'
M
10
J. Angulo
65'
M
J. Angulo
65'
M
21
I. López
1 ⚽
1 👟
59'
F
I. López
1 ⚽
1 👟
59'
F
Bench
3
A. Briseño
8'
D
A. Briseño
8'
D
17
B. García
D
B. García
D
4
B. Méndez
D
B. Méndez
D
24
F. Arce
M
F. Arce
M
16
F. Viñas
31'
F
F. Viñas
31'
F
11
Helinho
25'
F
Helinho
25'
F
1
H. González
G
H. González
G
13
Luan
D
Luan
D
15
P. Pérez
25'
M
P. Pérez
25'
M
7
V. Guzmán
31'
M
V. Guzmán
31'
M
12
L. Jiménez
1 ⚽
G
L. Jiménez
1 ⚽
G
3
A. Oliveros
80'
D
A. Oliveros
80'
D
4
A. Peña
1 👟
D
A. Peña
1 👟
D
33
R. Martínez
D
R. Martínez
D
88
C. Vargas
45'
M
C. Vargas
45'
M
6
D. Leyva
85'
M
D. Leyva
85'
M
8
L. Faravelli
67'
M
L. Faravelli
67'
M
30
R. Monreal
M
R. Monreal
M
10
J. Ruiz
45'
F
J. Ruiz
45'
F
11
J. Torres
45'
F
J. Torres
45'
F
9
J. Carranza
1 ⚽
51'
F
J. Carranza
1 ⚽
51'
F
Bench
1
Christopher Andrade
G
Christopher Andrade
G
20
Francisco Méndez
13'
D
Francisco Méndez
13'
D
90
Juan Valencia
45'
F
Juan Valencia
45'
F
5
Kaiky Naves
D
Kaiky Naves
D
21
M. Espíndola
23'
M
M. Espíndola
23'
M
27
M. Pedroza
F
M. Pedroza
F
99
M. Rodríguez
90'
M
M. Rodríguez
90'
M
14
M. Zaleta
45'
M
M. Zaleta
45'
M
16
P. Pedraza
45'
M
P. Pedraza
45'
M
17
R. Cortéz
M
R. Cortéz
M
Best on the pitch
A. Vega
M · Toluca
9.00
4 shots
· 74 pass
J. Gallardo
D · Toluca
7.90
1 👟
4 shots
· 71 pass
I. López
F · Toluca
7.90
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 18 pass
F. Pereira
D · Toluca
7.50
· 98 pass
L. Jiménez
G · Necaxa
7.50
1 ⚽
· 35 pass
F. Romero
M · Toluca
7.30
· 96 pass
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. García | G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 22% | — | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 90 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 4 | 71 | 60% | 3 | — | — |
| F. Pereira | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 98 | 95% | — | — | — |
| E. López | D | 90 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 89 | 86% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Simón | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 71 | 65% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Romero | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 96 | 90% | 5 | 1 | — |
| J. Díaz | M | 59 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 24% | — | — | — |
| A. Vega | M | 89 | 9.00 | — | — | 4 | 74 | 72% | — | — | — |
| É. Gutiérrez | M | 65 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 47 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Angulo | M | 65 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 30% | — | — | — |
| I. López | F | 59 | 7.90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| A. Briseño | D | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Viñas | F | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Helinho | F | 25 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| P. Pérez | M | 25 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Guzmán | M | 31 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 31% | — | — | — |
Necaxa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Jiménez | G | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | — | 35 | 19% | — | — | — |
| A. Oliveros | D | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | — | 2 | 1 |
| A. Peña | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| R. Martínez | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Vargas | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Leyva | M | 85 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Faravelli | M | 67 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Monreal | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ruiz | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Torres | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| J. Carranza | F | 51 | 6.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 10% | 1 | — | 1 |
| Francisco Méndez | D | 13 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Valencia | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Espíndola | M | 23 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Rodríguez | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Zaleta | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| P. Pedraza | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs Necaxa?
The final score was Toluca 3–1 Necaxa.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs Necaxa?
The model assigned 39% probability to a Toluca win, 30% to a draw, and 30% to an Necaxa win.