Liga MX
· Apertura - 2
July 22, 2026 05:05
J. Diaz Price
(ast. Helinho)
14'
57'
(ast. R. Morales)
V. Arteaga
63'
(ast. R. Lopez)
S. Cordova
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 38% win probability (draw 31%, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 30%). The final result was Toluca 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas. In 2 previous meetings, Toluca have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for U.N.A.M. - Pumas.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
7
4
Shots on target
3
1.19
Actual xG
0.64
1
Saves
3
66%
Possession
34%
9
Corners
1
14
Tackles
18
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Diaz Price
· ast. Helinho
14'
Helinho
17'
46'
S. Cordova
/
P. Bennevendo
57'
ast. R. Morales ·
V. Arteaga⚽
63'
ast. R. Lopez ·
S. Cordova⚽
V. Guzman
/ N. Castro
66'
J. Angulo
/ F. Romero
66'
A. Vega
/ J. Gallardo
66'
B. A. Garcia Caprizo
/ C. Carrillo
76'
80'
R. Lopez
D. Barbosa
/ S. Simon
86'
88'
A. Medina
/
Juninho
90'+1
G. Martinez
/
R. Morales
90'+6
T. Leone
/
U. Antuna
Pre-match prediction
38.51%
Toluca
31.0%
X
30.5%
U.N.A.M. ←
we assigned to the actual result (U.N.A.M. - Pumas)
30.5%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.39
1.19
-0.2
1.39
0.64
-0.75
Toluca dominated by xG (1.19 vs 0.64).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Hugo Gonzalez
G
Hugo Gonzalez
G
17
Brian García
76'
D
Brian García
76'
D
13
Luan
D
Luan
D
4
Bruno Méndez
D
Bruno Méndez
D
2
Diego Barbosa
86'
D
Diego Barbosa
86'
D
24
Fernando Arce Juárez
M
Fernando Arce Juárez
M
7
Víctor Guzmán
66'
M
Víctor Guzmán
66'
M
9
Alexis Vega
66'
M
Alexis Vega
66'
M
10
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
66'
M
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
66'
M
11
Helinho
1 👟
M
Helinho
1 👟
M
29
Jorge Díaz
1 ⚽
F
Jorge Díaz
1 ⚽
F
Bench
3
Antonio Briseño
D
Antonio Briseño
D
191
Carlos Carrillo
21'
F
Carlos Carrillo
21'
F
35
Érick Gutiérrez
M
Érick Gutiérrez
M
25
Everardo López
D
Everardo López
D
6
Federico Pereira
D
Federico Pereira
D
5
F. Romero
31'
M
F. Romero
31'
M
20
J. Gallardo
31'
D
J. Gallardo
31'
D
22
Luis García
G
Luis García
G
8
Nicolás Castro
31'
M
Nicolás Castro
31'
M
19
Santiago Simón
11'
M
Santiago Simón
11'
M
1
Keylor Navas
G
Keylor Navas
G
77
Álvaro Angulo
D
Álvaro Angulo
D
5
Rubén Duarte
D
Rubén Duarte
D
6
Nathan Silva
D
Nathan Silva
D
2
Pablo Bennevendo
45'
D
Pablo Bennevendo
45'
D
18
V. Arteaga
1 ⚽
M
V. Arteaga
1 ⚽
M
45
Pedro Vite
M
Pedro Vite
M
7
Rodrigo Lopez
1 👟
M
Rodrigo Lopez
1 👟
M
31
R. Morales
1 👟
F
R. Morales
1 👟
F
23
Juninho
88'
F
Juninho
88'
F
21
Uriel Antuna
F
Uriel Antuna
F
Bench
22
Alan Medina
9'
F
Alan Medina
9'
F
34
Angel Azuaje
D
Angel Azuaje
D
24
Antonio Leone
D
Antonio Leone
D
12
Cristian Calderón
D
Cristian Calderón
D
9
Guillermo Martínez
6'
F
Guillermo Martínez
6'
F
199
Kleber Carranza
D
Kleber Carranza
D
35
Pablo Lara
G
Pablo Lara
G
20
Santiago Trigos
M
Santiago Trigos
M
17
S. Córdova
1 ⚽
52'
M
S. Córdova
1 ⚽
52'
M
203
Stanley García
M
Stanley García
M
Best on the pitch
V. Arteaga
M · U.N.A.M.
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 25 pass
Jorge Díaz
F · Toluca
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 27 pass
Pedro Vite
M · U.N.A.M.
7.30
· 40 pass
S. Córdova
M · U.N.A.M.
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 15 pass
Helinho
M · Toluca
7.20
1 👟
4 shots
· 47 pass
Nathan Silva
D · U.N.A.M.
7.00
· 37 pass
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Gonzalez | G | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 36 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Brian García | D | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 50 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Luan | D | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 65 | 61% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Méndez | D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 80 | 70% | 1 | — | — |
| Diego Barbosa | D | 86 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 28% | 7 | — | — |
| Fernando Arce Juárez | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 52% | 3 | — | — |
| Víctor Guzmán | M | 66 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 55 | 48% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Vega | M | 66 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Jesús Ricardo Angulo | M | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Helinho | M | 97 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 4 | 47 | 38% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jorge Díaz | F | 97 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 27 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Carrillo | F | 21 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| F. Romero | M | 31 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 31 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Castro | M | 31 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keylor Navas | G | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Angulo | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Rubén Duarte | D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Nathan Silva | D | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Pablo Bennevendo | D | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| V. Arteaga | M | 97 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 25 | 20% | 3 | — | — |
| Pedro Vite | M | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 40 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Lopez | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 28 | 25% | 2 | 1 | — |
| R. Morales | F | 91 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 20 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Juninho | F | 88 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| Uriel Antuna | F | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Alan Medina | F | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guillermo Martínez | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| S. Córdova | M | 52 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
The final score was Toluca 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
The model assigned 38% probability to a Toluca win, 31% to a draw, and 30% to an U.N.A.M. - Pumas win.