Tondela - Alverca
Taça de Portugal
October 17, 2026 16:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
49.21%
Win
Tondela
22.41%
Draw
28.38%
Win
Alverca
2.2
1.53
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–1
(9.17%)
1X2 Result
1
49%
X
22%
2
28%
Double Chance
1X
72%
X2
51%
12
78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
72%
✓ 63.6% hit rate (44 picks)
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Tondela a 49% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Alverca. Expected goals are 2.2 for Tondela and 1.5 for Alverca (total 3.7), with a 85% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.17% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Tondela have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Alverca.
Season Stats
2W
1D
0L
0W
1D
0L
Averages per game
3.3
Goals
2.0
0.7
Conceded
2.0
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
100%
67%
BTTS
100%
33%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 3 matches in Taça de Portugal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Tondela
Alverca →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 5.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Tondela
Attack
40
Defence
68
Form
60
Alverca
Attack
35
Defence
67
Form
51
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Tondela vs Alverca?
The model gives Tondela a 49% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 28% for an Alverca win.
How many goals are expected in Tondela vs Alverca?
Expected goals: Tondela 2.2, Alverca 1.5 (total 3.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 85%.
What is the most likely score in Tondela vs Alverca?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.17%.