MLS
· Regular Season - 8
April 18, 2026 21:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Toronto FC, result Pareggio
D. Salloi
52'
R. Laryea
68'
K. Franklin
88'
29'
J. Bell
78'
F. Torres
82'
C. Ramirez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toronto FC a 51% win probability (draw 24%, Austin 23%). The final result was Toronto FC 3–3 Austin.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
9
11
Shots on target
6
3.11
Actual xG
1.48
3
Saves
8
46%
Possession
54%
6
Corners
5
19
Tackles
10
5
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
12'
N. Dubersarsky
29'
J. Bell⚽
R. Edwards
43'
45'+2
Guilherme Biro
⚽D. Salloi
52'
J. Cifuentes
53'
58'
R. Taylor
/
J. Nelson
D. Etienne
/ M. Henry
62'
R. Edwards
/ L. Stefanovic
62'
⚽R. Laryea
68'
71'
C. Ramirez
/
M. Desler
71'
B. Sabovic
/
N. Dubersarsky
78'
F. Torres⚽
L. Stefanovic
79'
82'
C. Ramirez⚽
⚽K. Franklin
88'
A. Coello
89'
90'+4
I. Sanchez
/
J. Rosales
90'+4
C. Fodrey
/
M. Uzuni
J. Cifuentes
/ E. Aristizabal
90'+4
E. Aristizabal
90'+10
Pre-match prediction
51.51%
Toronto
24.65%
X ←
23.84%
Austin
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
24.65%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.74
3.11
+0.37
0.95
1.48
+0.53
Toronto FC dominated by xG (3.11 vs 1.48).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
L. Gavran
G
44
Raheem Edwards
62'
D
12
Zane Monlouis
D
14
A. Coello
D
22
Richie Laryea
1 ⚽
D
21
Jonathan Osorio
M
8
J. Cifuentes
89'
M
19
K. Franklin
1 ⚽
M
20
D. Salloi
1 ⚽
F
11
Derrick Etienne Junior
62'
F
9
J. Sargent
F
Bench
29
D. Kerr
F
17
E. Aristizabal
1'
F
76
L. Stefanovic
28'
D
71
M. Cimermancic
M
78
M. Henry
28'
M
1
G
29
Guilherme Biro
D
Guilherme Biro
D
15
Jonathan Bell
1 ⚽
D
Jonathan Bell
1 ⚽
D
5
D
3
Mikkel Desler
71'
D
Mikkel Desler
71'
D
7
J. Nelson
57'
M
30
Joseph Rosales
89'
M
Joseph Rosales
89'
M
20
Nicolas Dubersarsky
71'
M
Nicolas Dubersarsky
71'
M
17
Jon Gallagher
M
Jon Gallagher
M
10
Myrto Uzuni
89'
F
Myrto Uzuni
89'
F
11
Facundo Torres
1 ⚽
F
Facundo Torres
1 ⚽
F
Bench
14
Besard Sabović
19'
M
Besard Sabović
19'
M
19
Calvin Fodrey
1'
M
Calvin Fodrey
1'
M
21
Christian Ramirez
1 ⚽
19'
F
Christian Ramirez
1 ⚽
19'
F
6
Ilie Sánchez
8'
M
Ilie Sánchez
8'
M
35
Mateja Đorđević
D
Mateja Đorđević
D
Best on the pitch
G · Austin
8.90
· 42 pass
D. Salloi
F · Toronto
8.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 27 pass
Facundo Torres
F · Austin
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 49 pass
Richie Laryea
D · Toronto
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 40 pass
J. Cifuentes
M · Toronto
7.50
1 shots
· 33 pass
J. Sargent
F · Toronto
7.50
4 shots
· 27 pass
Toronto FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Gavran | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Raheem Edwards | D | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Zane Monlouis | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Coello | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 65 | 52% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Richie Laryea | D | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 40 | 31% | 4 | — | — |
| Jonathan Osorio | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Cifuentes | M | 89 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 24% | 2 | 1 | — |
| K. Franklin | M | 90 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 34 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Salloi | F | 90 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 27 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Derrick Etienne Junior | F | 62 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Sargent | F | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 4 | 27 | 19% | — | — | — |
| E. Aristizabal | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| L. Stefanovic | D | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Henry | M | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
Austin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 29% | — | — | — | |
| Guilherme Biro | D | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 36 | 28% | — | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Bell | D | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 49 | 40% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 58 | 49% | 1 | — | — | |
| Mikkel Desler | D | 71 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 43 | 37% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Nelson | M | 57 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Joseph Rosales | M | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 53 | 46% | 1 | — | — |
| Nicolas Dubersarsky | M | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jon Gallagher | M | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| Myrto Uzuni | F | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Facundo Torres | F | 90 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 49 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| Besard Sabović | M | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Calvin Fodrey | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Ramirez | F | 19 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Ilie Sánchez | M | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Austin?
The final score was Toronto FC 3–3 Austin.
What did the model predict before Toronto FC vs Austin?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Toronto FC win, 24% to a draw, and 23% to an Austin win.