MLS
· Regular Season - 8
April 18, 2026 19:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Toronto FC, result Draw
D. Salloi
52'
R. Laryea
68'
K. Franklin
88'
29'
J. Bell
78'
F. Torres
82'
C. Ramirez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toronto FC a 51% win probability (draw 24%, Austin 23%). The final result was Toronto FC 3–3 Austin.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
9
11
Shots on target
6
3.11
Actual xG
1.48
3
Saves
8
46%
Possession
54%
6
Corners
5
19
Tackles
10
5
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
12'
N. Dubersarsky
29'
J. Bell⚽
R. Edwards
43'
45'+2
Guilherme Biro
⚽D. Salloi
52'
J. Cifuentes
53'
58'
R. Taylor
/
J. Nelson
D. Etienne
/ M. Henry
62'
R. Edwards
/ L. Stefanovic
62'
⚽R. Laryea
68'
71'
C. Ramirez
/
M. Desler
71'
B. Sabovic
/
N. Dubersarsky
78'
F. Torres⚽
L. Stefanovic
79'
82'
C. Ramirez⚽
⚽K. Franklin
88'
A. Coello
89'
90'+4
I. Sanchez
/
J. Rosales
90'+4
C. Fodrey
/
M. Uzuni
J. Cifuentes
/ E. Aristizabal
90'+4
E. Aristizabal
90'+10
Pre-match prediction
51.51%
Toronto
24.65%
X ←
23.84%
Austin
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
24.65%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.74
3.11
+0.37
0.95
1.48
+0.53
Toronto FC dominated by xG (3.11 vs 1.48).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Luka Gavran
G
Luka Gavran
G
44
R. Edwards
62'
D
R. Edwards
62'
D
12
Zane Monlouis
D
Zane Monlouis
D
14
Alonso Coello
D
Alonso Coello
D
22
Richie Laryea
1 ⚽
D
Richie Laryea
1 ⚽
D
21
Jonathan Osorio
M
Jonathan Osorio
M
8
J. Cifuentes
89'
M
19
Kobe Franklin
1 ⚽
M
Kobe Franklin
1 ⚽
M
20
Dániel Sallói
1 ⚽
F
Dániel Sallói
1 ⚽
F
11
Derrick Etienne
62'
F
Derrick Etienne
62'
F
9
Josh Sargent
F
Josh Sargent
F
Bench
29
Deandre Kerr
F
Deandre Kerr
F
17
Emilio Aristizábal
1'
F
Emilio Aristizábal
1'
F
76
L. Stefanovic
28'
D
78
Malik Henry
28'
M
Malik Henry
28'
M
71
M. Cimermancic
M
1
G
29
Guilherme Biro
D
Guilherme Biro
D
15
Jonathan Bell
1 ⚽
D
Jonathan Bell
1 ⚽
D
5
D
3
Mikkel Desler
71'
D
Mikkel Desler
71'
D
7
Jayden Nelson
57'
M
Jayden Nelson
57'
M
30
Joseph Rosales
89'
M
Joseph Rosales
89'
M
20
Nicolas Dubersarsky
71'
M
Nicolas Dubersarsky
71'
M
17
Jon Gallagher
M
Jon Gallagher
M
10
Myrto Uzuni
89'
F
Myrto Uzuni
89'
F
11
F. Torres
1 ⚽
F
F. Torres
1 ⚽
F
Bench
14
Besard Sabović
19'
M
Besard Sabović
19'
M
19
Calvin Fodrey
1'
M
Calvin Fodrey
1'
M
21
Christian Ramirez
1 ⚽
19'
F
Christian Ramirez
1 ⚽
19'
F
6
Ilie Sánchez
8'
M
Ilie Sánchez
8'
M
35
Mateja Đorđević
D
Mateja Đorđević
D
Best on the pitch
G · Austin
8.90
· 42 pass
Dániel Sallói
F · Toronto
8.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 27 pass
F. Torres
F · Austin
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 49 pass
Richie Laryea
D · Toronto
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 40 pass
J. Cifuentes
M · Toronto
7.50
1 shots
· 33 pass
Josh Sargent
F · Toronto
7.50
4 shots
· 27 pass
Toronto FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Gavran | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 22% | — | — | — |
| R. Edwards | D | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Zane Monlouis | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Alonso Coello | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 65 | 52% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Richie Laryea | D | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 40 | 31% | 4 | — | — |
| Jonathan Osorio | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Cifuentes | M | 89 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 24% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Kobe Franklin | M | 90 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 34 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Dániel Sallói | F | 90 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 27 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Derrick Etienne | F | 62 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Josh Sargent | F | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 4 | 27 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| L. Stefanovic | D | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Malik Henry | M | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
Austin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 29% | — | — | — | |
| Guilherme Biro | D | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 36 | 28% | — | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Bell | D | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 49 | 40% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 58 | 49% | 1 | — | — | |
| Mikkel Desler | D | 71 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 43 | 37% | 3 | — | — |
| Jayden Nelson | M | 57 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Joseph Rosales | M | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 53 | 46% | 1 | — | — |
| Nicolas Dubersarsky | M | 71 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jon Gallagher | M | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| Myrto Uzuni | F | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 13% | — | — | — |
| F. Torres | F | 90 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 49 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| Besard Sabović | M | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Calvin Fodrey | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Ramirez | F | 19 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Ilie Sánchez | M | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Austin?
The final score was Toronto FC 3–3 Austin.
What did the model predict before Toronto FC vs Austin?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Toronto FC win, 24% to a draw, and 23% to an Austin win.