Toronto FC 2–4 Inter Miami — pre-match prediction — MLS — May 09, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 12 May 09, 2026 19:00

Toronto FC

#10 · 29 pts

2 – 4

Final score

Inter Miami

#2 · 44 pts

E. Aristizabal (ast. D. Salloi) 82'

E. Aristizabal (ast. K. Franklin) 90'

44' R. de Paul

56' (ast. L. Messi) L. Suarez

73' (ast. L. Messi) S. Reguilon

75' (ast. R. de Paul) L. Messi

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toronto FC a 37% win probability (draw 27%, Inter Miami 35%). The final result was Toronto FC 2–4 Inter Miami. In 1 previous meetings, Toronto FC have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Inter Miami.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.99

Actual xG

1.71

Saves

40%

Possession

60%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

44'

R. de Paul⚽

R. Edwards

51'

56'

ast. L. Messi · L. Suarez⚽

61'

L. Suarez

↕ D. Kerr / E. Aristizabal

66'

↕ M. Cimermancic / D. Etienne

66'

68'

S. Reguilon / N. Allen ↕

↕ R. Edwards / M. Chisholm

70'

73'

ast. L. Messi · S. Reguilon⚽

75'

ast. R. de Paul · L. Messi⚽

78'

P. Plambeck / T. Segovia ↕

78'

D. Ayala / Y. Bright ↕

79'

D. Pinter / L. Suarez ↕

⚽E. Aristizabal · ast. D. Salloi

82'

89'

D. Pinter

⚽E. Aristizabal · ast. K. Franklin

90'

Pre-match prediction

37.41%

Toronto

27.22%

35.36%

Inter ←

we assigned to the actual result (Inter Miami) 35.36% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Toronto

1.88

0.99

-0.89

Inter

1.59

1.71

+0.12

Inter Miami dominated by xG (1.71 vs 0.99). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Nashville SC	24	53
2	Inter Miami	24	44
3	New England Revolution	24	40
4	Chicago Fire	23	39
5	Charlotte	24	39
6	Orlando City SC	24	31
7	FC Cincinnati	23	31
8	Philadelphia Union	24	30
9	New York City FC	24	29
10	Toronto FC	24	29
11	DC United	23	28
12	New York Red Bulls	24	27
13	Columbus Crew	24	23
14	Atlanta United FC	24	22
15	CF Montreal	24	21

Lineups

Toronto FC 4-2-3-1

L. Gavran G 7.00

R. Edwards 70' D 6.70

Z. Monlouis D 5.70

W. Zimmerman D 5.70

K. Franklin 1 👟 D 6.30

J. Osorio M 7.30

Alonso Coello M 7.50

D. Sallói 1 👟 M 7.20

M. Cimermancic 65' M 6.00

Malik Henry M 7.00

Deandre Kerr 65' F 6.60

Bench

D. Etienne 25' F 6.20

Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga 2 ⚽ 25' F 8.30

Inter Miami 4-3-3

D. St. Clair G 7.70

N. Allen 68' D 6.30

Micael D 7.00

Gonzalo Luján D 7.20

F. Mura D 6.60

T. Segovia 78' M 6.60

Y. Bright 78' M 7.30

R. De Paul 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.20

G. Berterame F 6.20

L. Suárez 1 ⚽ 78' F 6.90

L. Messi 1 ⚽ 2 👟 F 9.30

Bench

Daniel Pinter 12' F 6.30

D. Ayala 12' M 5.90

D. Ruíz M

Mateo Silvetti F

M. Falcón D

Sergio Reguilón 1 ⚽ 22' D 7.00

Best on the pitch

L. Messi

F · Inter

9.30

1 ⚽ 2 👟

5 shots · 46 pass

Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga

F · Toronto

8.30

2 ⚽

2 shots · 9 pass

R. De Paul

M · Inter

8.20

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 78 pass

D. St. Clair

G · Inter

7.70

· 29 pass

Alonso Coello

M · Toronto

7.50

1 shots · 55 pass

Y. Bright

M · Inter

7.30

· 47 pass

Toronto FC — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
L. Gavran	G	90	7.00	—	—	—	17	9%	1	—	—
R. Edwards	D	70	6.70	—	—	—	41	33%	4	1	—
Z. Monlouis	D	90	5.70	—	—	1	31	29%	—	—	—
W. Zimmerman	D	90	5.70	—	—	1	26	19%	2	—	—
K. Franklin	D	90	6.30	—	1	1	21	18%	—	—	—
J. Osorio	M	90	7.30	—	—	—	65	59%	2	—	—
Alonso Coello	M	90	7.50	—	—	1	55	48%	4	—	—
D. Sallói	M	90	7.20	—	1	2	31	23%	—	—	—
M. Cimermancic	M	65	6.00	—	—	1	29	27%	1	—	—
Malik Henry	M	90	7.00	—	—	1	19	14%	—	—	—
Deandre Kerr	F	65	6.60	—	—	1	8	5%	1	—	—
D. Etienne	F	25	6.20	—	—	—	8	4%	—	—	—
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga	F	25	8.30	2	—	2	9	7%	—	—	—

Inter Miami — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
D. St. Clair	G	90	7.70	—	—	—	29	28%	—	—	—
N. Allen	D	68	6.30	—	—	—	28	25%	—	—	—
Micael	D	90	7.00	—	—	—	84	81%	—	—	—
Gonzalo Luján	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	78	70%	3	—	—
F. Mura	D	90	6.60	—	—	—	47	43%	1	—	—
T. Segovia	M	78	6.60	—	—	—	43	39%	2	—	—
Y. Bright	M	78	7.30	—	—	—	47	39%	6	—	—
R. De Paul	M	90	8.20	1	1	1	78	68%	—	—	—
G. Berterame	F	90	6.20	—	—	—	19	15%	1	—	—
L. Suárez	F	78	6.90	1	—	3	31	19%	1	1	—
L. Messi	F	90	9.30	1	2	5	46	40%	1	—	—
Daniel Pinter	F	12	6.30	—	—	—	5	4%	—	1	—
D. Ayala	M	12	5.90	—	—	—	8	8%	—	—	—
Sergio Reguilón	D	22	7.00	1	—	1	21	16%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Inter Miami?

The final score was Toronto FC 2–4 Inter Miami.

What did the model predict before Toronto FC vs Inter Miami?

The model assigned 37% probability to a Toronto FC win, 27% to a draw, and 35% to an Inter Miami win.