Toronto FC 3–3 Orlando City SC — pre-match prediction — MLS — October 15, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 29 October 15, 2026 01:30 BMO Field, Toronto

Toronto FC

#11 · 36 pts

3 – 3

Final score

Orlando City SC

#7 · 42 pts

Lewis Morgan (ast. Theo Corbeanu) 26'

Theo Corbeanu (ast. Dániel Sallói) 49'

Matheus Pereira de Souza 89'

(pen.) 45'+1 Martin Ojeda

76' (ast. Iago Teodoro) Antoine Griezmann

83' (ast. Iván Angulo) Daryl Dike

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toronto FC a 46% win probability (draw 18%, Orlando City SC 34%). The final result was Toronto FC 3–3 Orlando City SC. In 1 previous meetings, Toronto FC have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Orlando City SC.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.84

Actual xG

2.30

Saves

37%

Possession

63%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Lewis Morgan · ast. Theo Corbeanu

26'

45'+1

(pen.) Martin Ojeda⚽

⚽Theo Corbeanu · ast. Dániel Sallói

49'

↕ Lewis Morgan / Djordje Mihailovic

57'

Alonso

66'

67'

Daryl Dike / Harvey Graham Sarajian ↕

Benjamin Kuscevic

75'

76'

ast. Iago Teodoro · Antoine Griezmann⚽

↕ Dániel Sallói / Derrick Etienne Jr.

80'

82'

Vinicius Nogueira

83'

ast. Iván Angulo · Daryl Dike⚽

Robin Lucius Fraser

85'

Braian Ojeda / Wilder Cartagena ↕

↕ Alonso / Emilio Aristizábal

88'

⚽Matheus Pereira de Souza

89'

90'+4

Zakaria Taifi / Eduard Atuesta ↕

Richie Laryea

90'+4

Pre-match prediction

46.9%

Toronto

18.41%

X ←

34.69%

Orlando

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 18.41% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Toronto

3.14

2.84

-0.3

Orlando

2.72

2.30

-0.43

Toronto FC dominated by xG (2.84 vs 2.30). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Nashville SC	31	70
2	New England Revolution	31	55
3	Inter Miami	31	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	51
5	Charlotte	31	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	38
11	Toronto FC	31	36
12	New York City FC	31	35
13	DC United	31	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	30
15	CF Montreal	31	25

Lineups

Toronto FC 4-4-2

L. Gavran G 5.93

Matheus Pereira 1 ⚽ D 6.49

B. Kuscevic D 5.79

Z. Monlouis D 6.17

R. Laryea D 6.06

D. Sallói 1 👟 80' M 6.38

N. Dorsch M 6.10

Alonso Coello 88' M 6.43

T. Corbeanu 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.18

L. Morgan 1 ⚽ 57' F 8.09

J. Sargent F 6.32

Bench

A. Piedrahita F 0.00

D. Etienne 10' F 6.60

D. Mihailović 33' M 6.27

Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga 2' F 6.50

J. Gilman D 0.00

K. Franklin D 0.00

M. Cimermancic M 0.00

R. Chukwu D 0.00

W. Yarbrough G 0.00

Orlando City SC 4-4-2

M. Crépeau G 6.79

Vinícius Nogueira D 6.31

Iago 1 👟 D 6.86

D. Brekalo D 6.68

E. Atuesta 89' D 6.02

Harvey Sarajian 67' M 5.87

W. Cartagena 85' M 6.43

Luis Otávio M 6.32

I. Angulo 1 👟 M 6.97

M. Ojeda 1 ⚽ F 6.70

A. Griezmann 1 ⚽ F 8.20

Bench

Adrián Marín D 0.00

Bernardo Rhein Goncalves F 0.00

B. Ojeda 5' M 5.79

D. Dike 1 ⚽ 23' F 7.89

Javier Otero G 0.00

Joran Gerbet M 0.00

N. Miller D 0.00

Tiago F 0.00

Z. Taifi 1' M 0.00

Best on the pitch

A. Griezmann

F · Orlando

8.20

1 ⚽

2 shots · 46 pass

T. Corbeanu

M · Toronto

8.18

1 ⚽ 1 👟

2 shots · 16 pass

L. Morgan

F · Toronto

8.09

1 ⚽

2 shots · 9 pass

D. Dike

F · Orlando

7.89

1 ⚽

2 shots · 7 pass

I. Angulo

M · Orlando

6.97

1 👟

1 shots · 40 pass

Iago

D · Orlando

6.86

1 👟

2 shots · 63 pass

Toronto FC — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
L. Gavran	G	90	5.93	—	—	0	32	21%	0	—	—
Matheus Pereira	D	90	6.49	1	—	1	36	22%	4	—	—
B. Kuscevic	D	90	5.79	—	—	3	30	21%	2	1	—
Z. Monlouis	D	90	6.17	—	—	0	32	30%	0	—	—
R. Laryea	D	90	6.06	—	—	0	17	15%	0	1	—
D. Sallói	M	80	6.38	—	1	1	14	10%	0	—	—
N. Dorsch	M	90	6.10	—	—	1	24	20%	5	—	—
Alonso Coello	M	88	6.43	—	—	2	37	28%	2	1	—
T. Corbeanu	M	90	8.18	1	1	2	16	15%	0	—	—
L. Morgan	F	57	8.09	1	—	2	9	7%	0	—	—
J. Sargent	F	90	6.32	—	—	3	20	11%	0	—	—
D. Etienne	F	10	6.60	—	—	0	6	5%	0	—	—
D. Mihailović	M	33	6.27	—	—	1	7	7%	0	—	—
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga	F	2	6.50	—	—	0	1	1%	0	—	—

Orlando City SC — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Crépeau	G	90	6.79	—	—	0	32	29%	0	—	—
Vinícius Nogueira	D	90	6.31	—	—	2	30	26%	2	1	—
Iago	D	90	6.86	—	1	2	63	60%	0	—	—
D. Brekalo	D	90	6.68	—	—	2	63	57%	0	—	—
E. Atuesta	D	89	6.02	—	—	1	50	42%	0	—	—
Harvey Sarajian	M	67	5.87	—	—	0	18	18%	0	—	—
W. Cartagena	M	85	6.43	—	—	0	57	55%	1	—	—
Luis Otávio	M	90	6.32	—	—	0	40	33%	4	—	—
I. Angulo	M	90	6.97	—	1	1	40	34%	2	—	—
M. Ojeda	F	90	6.70	1	—	2	37	28%	0	—	—
A. Griezmann	F	90	8.20	1	—	2	46	33%	0	—	—
B. Ojeda	M	5	5.79	—	—	0	6	6%	0	—	—
D. Dike	F	23	7.89	1	—	2	7	6%	0	—	—
Z. Taifi	M	1	0.00	—	—	0	1	0%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?

The final score was Toronto FC 3–3 Orlando City SC.

What did the model predict before Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?

The model assigned 46% probability to a Toronto FC win, 18% to a draw, and 34% to an Orlando City SC win.