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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 8 October 25, 2026 17:15 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Toulouse
#11 · 10 pts
0 – 0
Final score
Estac Troyes
#17 · 5 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Toulouse, result Draw
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toulouse a 52% win probability (draw 25%, Estac Troyes 22%). The final result was Toulouse 0–0 Estac Troyes.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
8
3
Shots on target
0
0.70
Actual xG
0.38
0
Saves
3
63%
Possession
37%
4
Corners
2
9
Tackles
23
6
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Aron Dønnum
25'
Rafik Messali
25'
36'
Junior Diaz
Cristian Casseres
39'
40'
Timothee Nkada
↕ Rafik Messali / Alexis Vossah
58'
↕ Aron Dønnum / Ilyas Azizi
67'
73'
Kandet Diawara / Timothee Nkada ↕
73'
Jérémy Le Douaron / Renaud Ripart ↕
Niko Sigur
83'
↕ Jacen Russell-Rowe / Santiago Hidalgo
84'
↕ Thomas Jorgensen / Niklas Schmidt
84'
Jens Berthel Askou
88'
Alexis Vossah
89'
Mark McKenzie
90'+3
90'
Iron Gomis / Mouhamed Diop ↕
Pre-match prediction
52.24%
Toulouse
25.13%
X ←
22.62%
Estac
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 25.13% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Toulouse
2.70
0.70
-2.0
Estac
1.18
0.38
-0.8
Toulouse dominated by xG (0.70 vs 0.38). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 8 17
2 Rennes Rennes 8 16
3 Lille Lille 8 15
4 Monaco Monaco 8 15
5 Lyon Lyon 8 14
6 Paris FC Paris FC 8 14
7 Lens Lens 8 13
8 Marseille Marseille 8 12
9 Lorient Lorient 8 12
10 Nice Nice 8 11
11 Toulouse Toulouse 8 10
12 Auxerre Auxerre 8 10
13 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 8 9
14 Angers Angers 8 8
15 Le Mans Le Mans 8 7
16 Strasbourg Strasbourg 8 7
17 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 8 5
18 Le Havre Le Havre 8 2
Lineups
Toulouse Toulouse 4-4-2
16 G. Restes G. Restes G 6.75
12 C. Tapé C. Tapé D 6.64
2 R. Nicolaisen R. Nicolaisen D 7.06
3 M. McKenzie M. McKenzie D 6.69
22 R. Messali R. Messali 58' D 6.20
8 T. Jørgensen T. Jørgensen 84' M 6.89
14 N. Sigur N. Sigur M 6.68
23 C. Cásseres C. Cásseres M 6.84
15 A. Dønnum A. Dønnum 67' M 6.54
20 C. Tengstedt C. Tengstedt F 6.07
13 J. Russell-Rowe J. Russell-Rowe 84' F 6.32
Bench
6 A. Vossah A. Vossah 32' M 6.36
94 I. Diallo I. Diallo D 0.00
7 Julián Vignolo Julián Vignolo F 0.00
18 M. Amougou M. Amougou M 0.00
31 N. Schmidt N. Schmidt 6' M 6.47
9 S. Hidalgo S. Hidalgo 6' F 6.56
5 S. Koumbassa S. Koumbassa D 0.00
1 T. Collin T. Collin G 0.00
37 Y. Azizi Y. Azizi 23' F 6.44
Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 4-3-3
40 H. Konaté H. Konaté G 6.32
5 P. Gozzi P. Gozzi D 6.57
4 M. Diaz M. Diaz D 6.78
6 A. Monfray A. Monfray D 7.40
2 L. Maronnier L. Maronnier D 7.04
8 M. Diop M. Diop 89' M 6.71
29 D. Karim D. Karim M 6.61
17 A. Mille A. Mille M 6.93
23 T. Nkada T. Nkada 73' F 6.25
20 R. Ripart R. Ripart 73' F 6.44
10 M. Ifnaoui M. Ifnaoui F 6.40
Bench
26 A. Phliponeau A. Phliponeau M 0.00
22 H. Picard H. Picard M 0.00
11 I. Gomis I. Gomis 1' M 0.00
36 I. Soukouna I. Soukouna M 0.00
9 J. Le Douaron J. Le Douaron 17' F 6.89
7 K. Diawara K. Diawara 17' F 6.48
31 Noah Donkor Noah Donkor D 0.00
33 P. Beach P. Beach G 0.00
Best on the pitch
A. Monfray
A. Monfray
D · Estac
7.40
· 58 pass
R. Nicolaisen
R. Nicolaisen
D · Toulouse
7.06
· 76 pass
L. Maronnier
L. Maronnier
D · Estac
7.04
· 29 pass
A. Mille
A. Mille
M · Estac
6.93
2 shots · 28 pass
J. Le Douaron
J. Le Douaron
F · Estac
6.89
· 8 pass
T. Jørgensen
T. Jørgensen
M · Toulouse
6.89
1 shots · 31 pass
Toulouse Toulouse — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Restes G 90 6.75 — — 0 61 57% 0 — —
C. Tapé D 90 6.64 — — 0 52 46% 0 — —
R. Nicolaisen D 90 7.06 — — 0 76 71% 0 — —
M. McKenzie D 90 6.69 — — 0 110 102% 1 1 —
R. Messali D 58 6.20 — — 0 38 34% 3 1 —
T. Jørgensen M 84 6.89 — — 1 31 26% 1 — —
N. Sigur M 90 6.68 — — 1 47 46% 1 1 —
C. Cásseres M 90 6.84 — — 0 88 73% 2 1 —
A. Dønnum M 67 6.54 — — 1 35 30% 0 1 —
C. Tengstedt F 90 6.07 — — 3 14 9% 0 — —
J. Russell-Rowe F 84 6.32 — — 0 8 6% 0 — —
A. Vossah M 32 6.36 — — 0 22 18% 0 1 —
N. Schmidt M 6 6.47 — — 0 5 4% 0 — —
S. Hidalgo F 6 6.56 — — 0 1 1% 1 — —
Y. Azizi F 23 6.44 — — 1 10 10% 0 — —
Estac Troyes Estac Troyes — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
H. Konaté G 90 6.32 — — 0 34 13% 0 — —
P. Gozzi D 90 6.57 — — 0 28 22% 3 — —
M. Diaz D 90 6.78 — — 0 34 31% 2 1 —
A. Monfray D 90 7.40 — — 0 58 51% 3 — —
L. Maronnier D 90 7.04 — — 0 29 27% 2 — —
M. Diop M 89 6.71 — — 1 26 22% 2 — —
D. Karim M 90 6.61 — — 1 40 36% 2 — —
A. Mille M 90 6.93 — — 2 28 25% 4 — —
T. Nkada F 73 6.25 — — 1 14 8% 1 1 —
R. Ripart F 73 6.44 — — 1 8 6% 1 — —
M. Ifnaoui F 90 6.40 — — 2 29 23% 1 — —
I. Gomis M 1 0.00 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
J. Le Douaron F 17 6.89 — — 0 8 4% 1 — —
K. Diawara F 17 6.48 — — 0 4 3% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
The final score was Toulouse 0–0 Estac Troyes.
What did the model predict before Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
The model assigned 52% probability to a Toulouse win, 25% to a draw, and 22% to an Estac Troyes win.