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Bundesliga · Championship Group - 31 May 10, 2026 17:00
TSV Hartberg
#6 · 22 pts
2 – 4
Final score
Sturm Graz
#2 · 34 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Sturm Graz
L. Pazourek (ast. T. Kainz) 9'
L. Fridrikas 56' (pen.)
2' (ast. J. Gazibegovic) A. Vallci
(og) 14' B. Markus
25' (ast. E. Karic) O. Kiteishvili
80' (ast. J. Hodl) L. Weinhandl

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sturm Graz a 66% win probability (draw 17%, TSV Hartberg 16%). The final result was TSV Hartberg 2–4 Sturm Graz. In 3 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Sturm Graz.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
18
6
Shots on target
8
1.21
Actual xG
1.37
5
Saves
4
55%
Possession
45%
2
Corners
7
23
Tackles
23
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
2'
ast. J. Gazibegovic · A. Vallci⚽
⚽L. Pazourek · ast. T. Kainz
9'
14'
(og) B. Markus⚽
25'
ast. E. Karic · O. Kiteishvili⚽
K. Schopp
26'
↕ M. Fillafer / D. Kovacevic
46'
51'
J. Gorenc Stankovic
52'
⚽L. Fridrikas (pen.)
56'
59'
P. Koller / J. Gorenc Stankovic ↕
59'
L. Weinhandl / A. Kayombo ↕
63'
M. Malone / S. Jatta ↕
71'
L. Weinhandl
↕ T. Kainz / L. Spendlhofer
71'
↕ M. Hoffmann / D. Korherr
71'
↕ K. Schopp / P. Komposch
71'
↕ L. Fridrikas / J. Karner
79'
80'
ast. J. Hodl · L. Weinhandl⚽
82'
P. Komposch
85'
85'
G. Mamageishvili / O. Kiteishvili ↕
85'
S. Hierlander / R. Fosso ↕
Pre-match prediction
16.29%
TSV
17.62%
X
66.09%
Sturm ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Sturm Graz) 66.09% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
TSV
0.78
1.21
+0.43
Sturm
2.45
1.37
-1.08
xG dominance was balanced (1.21 – 1.37). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Lask Linz Lask Linz 31 36
1 Ried Ried 31 28
2 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 31 25
2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 31 34
3 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 31 29
3 SCR Altach SCR Altach 31 24
4 WSG Wattens WSG Wattens 31 24
4 Austria Vienna Austria Vienna 31 29
5 Grazer AK Grazer AK 31 24
5 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 31 27
6 TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 31 22
6 FC BW Linz FC BW Linz 31 21
Lineups
TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 5-4-1
40 T. Hülsmann T. Hülsmann G 6.20
2 Luca Pazourek Luca Pazourek 1 ⚽ D 7.00
6 Habib Anas Coulibaly Habib Anas Coulibaly D 6.20
18 Fabian Wilfinger Fabian Wilfinger D 5.90
27 Konstantin Schopp Konstantin Schopp 71' D 6.20
28 Jurgen Heil Jurgen Heil D 5.90
22 Marco Hoffmann Marco Hoffmann 71' M 6.30
4 Benjamin Markuš Benjamin Markuš 1 ⚽ M 6.60
23 T. Kainz T. Kainz 1 👟 71' M 6.90
11 Maximilian Fillafer Maximilian Fillafer 45' M 6.30
30 Lukas Fridrikas Lukas Fridrikas 1 ⚽ 79' F 6.30
Bench
95 Damjan Kovačević Damjan Kovačević 46' D 6.30
77 David Korherr David Korherr 20' F 6.70
25 Emmanuel Ojukwu Emmanuel Ojukwu D
44 Harald Postl Harald Postl G
17 Jonas Karner Jonas Karner 12' M 6.50
16 Julian Gölles Julian Gölles D
19 Lukas Spendlhofer Lukas Spendlhofer 20' D 6.20
33 Maximilian Hennig Maximilian Hennig D
14 Paul Komposch Paul Komposch 20' D 6.30
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-2-3-1
53 Daniil Khudyakov Daniil Khudyakov G 6.60
17 Emir Karić Emir Karić 1 👟 D 7.00
5 Albert Vallci Albert Vallci 1 ⚽ D 8.00
2 Jeyland Mitchell Jeyland Mitchell D 6.00
22 Jusuf Gazibegović Jusuf Gazibegović 1 👟 D 6.90
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič J. Gorenc Stankovič 59' M 5.90
80 Ryan Fosso Ryan Fosso 85' M 7.30
11 Axel Kayombo Axel Kayombo 59' M 6.30
10 O. Kiteishvili O. Kiteishvili 1 ⚽ 85' M 7.70
43 Jacob Hödl Jacob Hödl 1 👟 M 6.50
20 Seedy Jatta Seedy Jatta 63' F 6.30
Bench
23 A. Malic A. Malic D
26 Belmin Beganović Belmin Beganović F
15 Gizo Mamageishvili Gizo Mamageishvili 6' M
39 Luca Weinhandl Luca Weinhandl 1 ⚽ 32' M 7.60
40 Matteo Bignetti Matteo Bignetti G
77 Maurice Malone Maurice Malone 28' F 6.20
30 Paul Koller Paul Koller 32' D 6.60
9 Rory Wilson Rory Wilson F
25 Stefan Hierländer Stefan Hierländer 6' M
Best on the pitch
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci
D · Sturm
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots · 41 pass
O. Kiteishvili
O. Kiteishvili
M · Sturm
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots · 37 pass
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl
M · Sturm
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 12 pass
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso
M · Sturm
7.30
· 30 pass
Luca Pazourek
Luca Pazourek
D · TSV
7.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 20 pass
Emir Karić
Emir Karić
D · Sturm
7.00
1 👟
1 shots · 36 pass
TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
T. Hülsmann G 91 6.20 — — — 30 22% — — —
Luca Pazourek D 91 7.00 1 — 1 20 18% 4 — —
Habib Anas Coulibaly D 91 6.20 — — — 45 34% 5 — —
Fabian Wilfinger D 91 5.90 — — — 42 37% 1 — —
Konstantin Schopp D 71 6.20 — — 1 42 32% 3 1 —
Jurgen Heil D 91 5.90 — — 2 38 28% 1 — —
Marco Hoffmann M 71 6.30 — — 1 21 17% — — —
Benjamin Markuš M 91 6.60 1 — — 52 44% 7 — —
T. Kainz M 71 6.90 — 1 — 34 32% — — —
Maximilian Fillafer M 45 6.30 — — — 8 6% — — —
Lukas Fridrikas F 79 6.30 1 — 4 29 20% 1 — —
Damjan Kovačević D 46 6.30 — — — 9 6% 1 — —
David Korherr F 20 6.70 — — 2 3 3% — — —
Jonas Karner M 12 6.50 — — — 6 5% — — —
Lukas Spendlhofer D 20 6.20 — — — 14 13% — — —
Paul Komposch D 20 6.30 — — — 16 13% — 1 —
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Daniil Khudyakov G 91 6.60 — — — 29 19% — — —
Emir Karić D 91 7.00 — 1 1 36 29% 5 — —
Albert Vallci D 91 8.00 1 — 3 41 34% 3 — —
Jeyland Mitchell D 91 6.00 — — 2 30 22% — — —
Jusuf Gazibegović D 91 6.90 — 1 2 36 27% 2 — —
J. Gorenc Stankovič M 59 5.90 — — 1 18 14% 1 1 —
Ryan Fosso M 85 7.30 — — — 30 28% 3 — —
Axel Kayombo M 59 6.30 — — 1 13 11% 2 — —
O. Kiteishvili M 85 7.70 1 — 4 37 32% 3 — —
Jacob Hödl M 91 6.50 — 1 1 21 15% 2 — —
Seedy Jatta F 63 6.30 — — — 6 4% 1 — —
Gizo Mamageishvili M 6 — — — 1 1 — — — —
Luca Weinhandl M 32 7.60 1 — 2 12 8% — 1 —
Maurice Malone F 28 6.20 — — — 8 6% — — —
Paul Koller D 32 6.60 — — — 14 11% 1 — —
Stefan Hierländer M 6 — — — — 2 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
The final score was TSV Hartberg 2–4 Sturm Graz.
What did the model predict before TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
The model assigned 16% probability to a TSV Hartberg win, 17% to a draw, and 66% to an Sturm Graz win.