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Bundesliga · Championship Group - 31 May 10, 2026 17:00
TSV Hartberg
#6 · 7 pts
2 – 4
Final score
Sturm Graz
#4 · 8 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Sturm Graz
L. Pazourek (ast. T. Kainz) 9'
L. Fridrikas 56' (pen.)
2' (ast. J. Gazibegovic) A. Vallci
(og) 14' B. Markus
25' (ast. E. Karic) O. Kiteishvili
80' (ast. J. Hodl) L. Weinhandl
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sturm Graz a 66% win probability (draw 17%, TSV Hartberg 16%). The final result was TSV Hartberg 2–4 Sturm Graz. In 4 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 3 wins for Sturm Graz.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
18
6
Shots on target
8
1.21
Actual xG
1.37
5
Saves
4
55%
Possession
45%
2
Corners
7
23
Tackles
23
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
2'
ast. J. Gazibegovic · A. Vallci⚽
⚽L. Pazourek · ast. T. Kainz
9'
14'
(og) B. Markus⚽
25'
ast. E. Karic · O. Kiteishvili⚽
K. Schopp
26'
↕ M. Fillafer / D. Kovacevic
46'
51'
J. Gorenc Stankovic
52'
⚽L. Fridrikas (pen.)
56'
59'
P. Koller / J. Gorenc Stankovic ↕
59'
L. Weinhandl / A. Kayombo ↕
63'
M. Malone / S. Jatta ↕
71'
L. Weinhandl
↕ T. Kainz / L. Spendlhofer
71'
↕ M. Hoffmann / D. Korherr
71'
↕ K. Schopp / P. Komposch
71'
↕ L. Fridrikas / J. Karner
79'
80'
ast. J. Hodl · L. Weinhandl⚽
82'
P. Komposch
85'
85'
G. Mamageishvili / O. Kiteishvili ↕
85'
S. Hierlander / R. Fosso ↕
Pre-match prediction
16.29%
TSV
17.62%
X
66.09%
Sturm ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Sturm Graz) 66.09% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
TSV
0.78
1.21
+0.43
Sturm
2.45
1.37
-1.08
xG dominance was balanced (1.21 – 1.37). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Lask Linz Lask Linz 5 15
2 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 6 15
3 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 6 14
4 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 5 8
5 WSG Wattens WSG Wattens 6 8
6 TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 6 7
7 Grazer AK Grazer AK 6 7
8 Austria Vienna Austria Vienna 6 6
9 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 6 5
10 Ried Ried 6 5
11 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 6 5
12 SCR Altach SCR Altach 6 3
Lineups
TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 5-4-1
40 T. Hülsmann T. Hülsmann G 6.20
2 Luca Pazourek Luca Pazourek 1 ⚽ D 7.00
6 Habib Coulibaly Habib Coulibaly D 6.20
18 F. Wilfinger F. Wilfinger D 5.90
27 K. Schopp K. Schopp 71' D 6.20
28 J. Heil J. Heil D 5.90
22 C. Hoffmann C. Hoffmann 71' M 6.30
4 B. Markuš B. Markuš 1 ⚽ M 6.60
23 T. Kainz T. Kainz 1 👟 71' M 6.90
11 Maximilian Fillafer Maximilian Fillafer 45' M 6.30
30 Lukas Fridrikas Lukas Fridrikas 1 ⚽ 79' F 6.30
Bench
77 D. Korherr D. Korherr 20' F 6.70
95 D. Kovacevic D. Kovacevic 46' D 6.30
25 Emmanuel Ojukwu Emmanuel Ojukwu D
44 Harald Postl Harald Postl G
17 J. Karner J. Karner 12' M 6.50
16 Julian Gölles Julian Gölles D
19 L. Spendlhofer L. Spendlhofer 20' D 6.20
33 Maximilian Hennig Maximilian Hennig D
14 P. Komposch P. Komposch 20' D 6.30
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-2-3-1
53 D. Khudyakov D. Khudyakov G 6.60
17 E. Karić E. Karić 1 👟 D 7.00
5 A. Vallci A. Vallci 1 ⚽ D 8.00
2 J. Mitchell J. Mitchell D 6.00
22 Jusuf Gazibegović Jusuf Gazibegović 1 👟 D 6.90
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič J. Gorenc Stankovič 59' M 5.90
80 R. Fosso R. Fosso 85' M 7.30
11 Axel Kayombo Axel Kayombo 59' M 6.30
10 O. Kiteishvili O. Kiteishvili 1 ⚽ 85' M 7.70
43 Jacob Peter Hödl Jacob Peter Hödl 1 👟 M 6.50
20 S. Jatta S. Jatta 63' F 6.30
Bench
23 A. Malic A. Malic D
26 B. Beganović B. Beganović F
15 G. Mamageishvili G. Mamageishvili 6' M
39 Luca Weinhandl Luca Weinhandl 1 ⚽ 32' M 7.60
40 Matteo Bignetti Matteo Bignetti G
77 M. Malone M. Malone 28' F 6.20
30 P. Koller P. Koller 32' D 6.60
9 Rory Wilson Rory Wilson F
25 Stefan Hierländer Stefan Hierländer 6' M
Best on the pitch
A. Vallci
A. Vallci
D · Sturm
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots · 41 pass
O. Kiteishvili
O. Kiteishvili
M · Sturm
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots · 37 pass
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl
M · Sturm
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 12 pass
R. Fosso
R. Fosso
M · Sturm
7.30
· 30 pass
Luca Pazourek
Luca Pazourek
D · TSV
7.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 20 pass
E. Karić
E. Karić
D · Sturm
7.00
1 👟
1 shots · 36 pass
TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
T. Hülsmann G 91 6.20 — — — 30 22% — — —
Luca Pazourek D 91 7.00 1 — 1 20 18% 4 — —
Habib Coulibaly D 91 6.20 — — — 45 34% 5 — —
F. Wilfinger D 91 5.90 — — — 42 37% 1 — —
K. Schopp D 71 6.20 — — 1 42 32% 3 1 —
J. Heil D 91 5.90 — — 2 38 28% 1 — —
C. Hoffmann M 71 6.30 — — 1 21 17% — — —
B. Markuš M 91 6.60 1 — — 52 44% 7 — —
T. Kainz M 71 6.90 — 1 — 34 32% — — —
Maximilian Fillafer M 45 6.30 — — — 8 6% — — —
Lukas Fridrikas F 79 6.30 1 — 4 29 20% 1 — —
D. Korherr F 20 6.70 — — 2 3 3% — — —
D. Kovacevic D 46 6.30 — — — 9 6% 1 — —
J. Karner M 12 6.50 — — — 6 5% — — —
L. Spendlhofer D 20 6.20 — — — 14 13% — — —
P. Komposch D 20 6.30 — — — 16 13% — 1 —
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Khudyakov G 91 6.60 — — — 29 19% — — —
E. Karić D 91 7.00 — 1 1 36 29% 5 — —
A. Vallci D 91 8.00 1 — 3 41 34% 3 — —
J. Mitchell D 91 6.00 — — 2 30 22% — — —
Jusuf Gazibegović D 91 6.90 — 1 2 36 27% 2 — —
J. Gorenc Stankovič M 59 5.90 — — 1 18 14% 1 1 —
R. Fosso M 85 7.30 — — — 30 28% 3 — —
Axel Kayombo M 59 6.30 — — 1 13 11% 2 — —
O. Kiteishvili M 85 7.70 1 — 4 37 32% 3 — —
Jacob Peter Hödl M 91 6.50 — 1 1 21 15% 2 — —
S. Jatta F 63 6.30 — — — 6 4% 1 — —
G. Mamageishvili M 6 — — — 1 1 — — — —
Luca Weinhandl M 32 7.60 1 — 2 12 8% — 1 —
M. Malone F 28 6.20 — — — 8 6% — — —
P. Koller D 32 6.60 — — — 14 11% 1 — —
Stefan Hierländer M 6 — — — — 2 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
The final score was TSV Hartberg 2–4 Sturm Graz.
What did the model predict before TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
The model assigned 16% probability to a TSV Hartberg win, 17% to a draw, and 66% to an Sturm Graz win.