Virsliga
· Regular Season - 32
October 10, 2026 13:00
✓Model correct — prediction Riga
9'
Reginaldo Ramires
62'
(ast. S. Oulad M'Hand)
M. Badamosi
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Riga a 70% win probability (draw 17%, Tukums 12%). The final result was Tukums 0–2 Riga. In 3 previous meetings, Tukums have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Riga.
Match statistics
2
Shots on target
7
0.79
Actual xG
2.97
32%
Possession
68%
4
Corners
5
Match Events
K. Volkovs
8'
9'
Reginaldo Ramires⚽
9'
(missed pen.)
Reginaldo Ramires⚽
D. Valmiers
11'
K. Dislers
25'
30'
A. Ankrah
45'
A. Salazar
46'
R. Aouani
/
Caio Ferreira
D. Valmiers
/ R. Melkis
46'
R. Deruzinskis
54'
59'
M. Badamosi
/
Reginaldo Ramires
62'
ast. S. Oulad M'Hand ·
M. Badamosi⚽
J. Toba
/ H. Joksts
67'
M. Stals
/ K. Shigema
67'
71'
R. Jurkovskis
/
M. Tonisevs
71'
C. Saco
/
A. Ankrah
K. Klavins
/ E. Sprukts
77'
80'
S. Oulad M'Hand
82'
A. Taiwo
/
S. Oulad M'Hand
M. Derkach
/ D. Kaira
86'
90'+3
Iago Siqueira
Pre-match prediction
12.37%
Tukums
17.5%
X
70.12%
Riga ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Riga)
70.12%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.61
0.79
+0.18
2.00
2.97
+0.97
Riga dominated by xG (2.97 vs 0.79).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Tukums vs Riga?
The final score was Tukums 0–2 Riga.
What did the model predict before Tukums vs Riga?
The model assigned 12% probability to a Tukums win, 17% to a draw, and 70% to an Riga win.