Tunisia - Uganda
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 24, 2026 21:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.99%
Win
Tunisia
32.12%
Draw
35.89%
Win
Uganda
1.09
1.31
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(13.66%)
1X2 Result
1
32%
X
32%
2
36%
Double Chance
1X
64%
X2
68%
12
68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
51%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Uganda a 35% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Tunisia. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tunisia and 1.3 for Uganda (total 2.4), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.66% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Tunisia have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Uganda.
Season Stats
1W
2D
4L
0W
1D
2L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
1.0
2.6
Conceded
2.3
2.0
Shots OT
—
3.0
Corners
—
39%
Poss.
—
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
71%
O 2.5
67%
86%
BTTS
100%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 7 matches across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
100%
O 3.5
84%
BTTS
1W
0D
2L
· at home
0W
0D
1L
· away
1.3
gls/g
1.0
2.7
Conceded
3.0
33%
Win %
0%
33%
Win or Draw
0%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
100%
100%
O 3.5
100%
67%
BTTS
100%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
33%
Failed to Score
0%
last 3
ℹ
Home/away records across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.
Score Matrix
↕ Tunisia
Uganda →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1% | 12.0% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 13.0% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
Playing profile
Tunisia
Attack
14
Defence
48
Form
30
Uganda
Attack
25
Defence
42
Form
33
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
0
Draw
0
23 Dec 2025
3–1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Tunisia vs Uganda?
The model gives Tunisia a 31% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 35% for an Uganda win.
How many goals are expected in Tunisia vs Uganda?
Expected goals: Tunisia 1.1, Uganda 1.3 (total 2.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Tunisia vs Uganda?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.66%.