Türkiye - Italy
⚡ Pre-match analysis
58.04%
Win
Türkiye
17.58%
Draw
24.38%
Win
Italy
2.8
1.81
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Türkiye
58.04%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–1
(7.14%)
1X2 Result
1
58%
X
18%
2
24%
Double Chance
1X
76%
X2
42%
12
82%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
85%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Türkiye a 58% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 24% for Italy. Expected goals are 2.8 for Türkiye and 1.8 for Italy (total 4.6), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 7.14% probability.
Season Stats
5W
2D
1L
4W
2D
2L
Averages per game
1.9
Goals
2.1
0.9
Conceded
1.6
5.6
Shots OT
5.0
4.9
Corners
4.0
58%
Poss.
50%
Percentages
63%
O 1.5
88%
63%
O 2.5
88%
50%
BTTS
88%
50%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ
Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
63%
BTTS
3W
1D
0L
· at home
3W
1D
0L
· away
1.8
gls/g
2.2
0.5
Conceded
1.2
75%
Win %
75%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
50%
O 1.5
75%
50%
O 2.5
75%
50%
O 3.5
50%
50%
BTTS
75%
50%
Clean Sht
25%
25%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Türkiye
Italy →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 5 | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Türkiye
Attack
51
Defence
73
Form
29
Italy
Attack
42
Defence
81
Form
58
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Play-offs A/B
What's at stake · Play-offs A/B
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #1 |
| → Türkiye | #1 | #1 |
| → Draw | #1 | #1 |
| → Italy | #1 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Türkiye vs Italy?
The model gives Türkiye a 58% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 24% for an Italy win.
How many goals are expected in Türkiye vs Italy?
Expected goals: Türkiye 2.8, Italy 1.8 (total 4.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in Türkiye vs Italy?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.14%.