Skip to main content
← Premier League

Tusker - Homeboyz

Premier League September 11, 2026 14:00
Tusker
#7 · 6 pts
vs
Homeboyz
#16 · 4 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
33.23%
Win
Tusker
33.23%
Draw
33.54%
Win
Homeboyz
0.43
Expected xG
1.0

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (13.66%)
1X2 Result
1 33%
X 33%
2 34%
Double Chance
1X 67%
X2 67%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 51%
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Tusker a 33% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Homeboyz. Expected goals are 0.4 for Tusker and 1.0 for Homeboyz (total 1.4), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.66% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Tusker have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Homeboyz.

Season Stats

Tusker
5W 2D 8L
Homeboyz
4W 6D 5L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
1.2
0.9
Conceded
1.1
Percentages
40%
O 1.5
80%
13%
O 2.5
33%
20%
BTTS
53%
33%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Premier League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
45%
BTTS
Tusker
4W 3D 3L · at home
Homeboyz
2W 5D 3L · away
0.9
gls/g
1.3
0.9
Conceded
1.2
40%
Win %
20%
70%
Win or Draw
70%
60%
O 1.5
80%
20%
O 2.5
30%
10%
O 3.5
30%
30%
BTTS
60%
50%
Clean Sht
10%
30%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Tusker Homeboyz →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 23.9% 24.0% 12.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2%
1 10.3% 10.3% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 2.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% —
3 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — —
4 — — — — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Tusker Tusker
W Mara Sugar 3–1
L Mathare United 2–1
W Ulinzi Stars 0–2
D APS Bomet 1–1
L Ulinzi Stars 2–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
Homeboyz Homeboyz
L AFC Leopards 2–0
L GOR Mahia 0–1
D Ulinzi Stars 1–1
W Mombasa Elite 0–1
D Police 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Tusker Tusker
Attack
17
Defence
53
Form
33
Homeboyz Homeboyz
Attack
15
Defence
53
Form
27
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Tusker
1
Draw
0
Homeboyz
15 Mar 2026 Premier League 2–0
2 Nov 2025 Premier League 1–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 KCB KCB 6 13
2 GOR Mahia GOR Mahia 5 12
3 AFC Leopards AFC Leopards 5 9
4 Kenya Police Kenya Police 5 8
5 3K 3K 5 8
6 Murang'a SEAL Murang'a SEAL 5 7
7 Tusker Tusker 3 6
8 Migori Youth Migori Youth 4 6
9 Police Police 1 1
9 APS Bomet APS Bomet 6 6
10 Shabana Shabana 5 6
11 Mara Sugar Mara Sugar 5 6
12 Mathare United Mathare United 5 5
13 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars 5 5
14 Nairobi United Nairobi United 5 4
15 Bandari Bandari 5 4
16 Homeboyz Homeboyz 4 4
17 Posta Rangers FC Posta Rangers FC 5 4
18 Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite 5 1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Tusker vs Homeboyz?
The model gives Tusker a 33% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 33% for an Homeboyz win.
How many goals are expected in Tusker vs Homeboyz?
Expected goals: Tusker 0.4, Homeboyz 1.0 (total 1.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Tusker vs Homeboyz?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.66%.