U. Catolica 1–2 Nublense — pre-match prediction — Primera División — August 23, 2026

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Primera División · Regular Season - 20 August 23, 2026 02:00

U. Catolica

#2 · 42 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Nublense

#7 · 32 pts

F. Zampedri 75' (pen.)

48' (ast. L. Molina Canto) E. Calderon

88' (ast. F. Ovelar) I. Jeraldino

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave U. Catolica a 49% win probability (draw 22%, Nublense 28%). The final result was U. Catolica 1–2 Nublense. In 1 previous meetings, U. Catolica have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Nublense.

Match statistics

Shots on target

1.51

Actual xG

1.18

42%

Possession

58%

Corners

Match Events

F. Zuqui

11'

D. Sanhueza

J. Giani

43'

M. Palavecino

45'+4

46'

G. Graciani / D. Sanhueza ↕

↕ J. Giani / J. A. Martinez

46'

↕ D. Gonzalez / S. Arancibia

46'

48'

ast. L. Molina Canto · E. Calderon⚽

↕ C. Montes / D. Corral

65'

67'

I. Jeraldino / E. Calderon ↕

D. Garnero

67'

72'

L. Reyes

74'

N. Perez

⚽F. Zampedri (pen.)

75'

76'

F. Ovelar / L. Molina Canto ↕

76'

C. Mansilla / M. Rivera ↕

↕ M. Palavecino / G. Medel

81'

F. Campos Mosqueira / M. Plaza ↕

J. A. Martinez

85'

G. Medel

87'

88'

ast. F. Ovelar · I. Jeraldino⚽

M. Palavecino

90'+1

Pre-match prediction

49.34%

22.08%

28.59%

Nublense ←

we assigned to the actual result (Nublense) 28.59% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

2.06

1.51

-0.55

Nublense

1.60

1.18

-0.42

U. Catolica dominated by xG (1.51 vs 1.18). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Colo Colo	23	54
2	U. Catolica	23	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	42
4	Everton de Vina	23	36
5	Palestino	23	36
6	Deportes Limache	23	33
7	Nublense	23	32
8	Concepción	23	31
9	D. La Serena	23	30
10	Coquimbo Unido	22	29
11	A. Italiano	23	28
12	O'Higgins	23	27
13	Huachipato	21	25
14	Cobresal	23	24
15	Universidad de Concepcion	22	22
16	Union La Calera	23	17