U. Catolica 1–2 Nublense — pre-match prediction — Primera División — August 23, 2026

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Primera División · Regular Season - 20 August 23, 2026 02:00

U. Catolica

#3 · 49 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Nublense

#10 · 35 pts

F. Zampedri 75' (pen.)

48' (ast. L. Molina Canto) E. Calderon

88' (ast. F. Ovelar) I. Jeraldino

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave U. Catolica a 49% win probability (draw 22%, Nublense 28%). The final result was U. Catolica 1–2 Nublense. In 1 previous meetings, U. Catolica have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Nublense.

Match statistics

Shots on target

1.51

Actual xG

1.18

42%

Possession

58%

Corners

Match Events

F. Zuqui

11'

D. Sanhueza

J. Giani

43'

M. Palavecino

45'+4

46'

G. Graciani / D. Sanhueza ↕

↕ J. Giani / J. A. Martinez

46'

↕ D. Gonzalez / S. Arancibia

46'

48'

ast. L. Molina Canto · E. Calderon⚽

↕ C. Montes / D. Corral

65'

67'

I. Jeraldino / E. Calderon ↕

D. Garnero

67'

72'

L. Reyes

74'

N. Perez

⚽F. Zampedri (pen.)

75'

76'

F. Ovelar / L. Molina Canto ↕

76'

C. Mansilla / M. Rivera ↕

↕ M. Palavecino / G. Medel

81'

F. Campos Mosqueira / M. Plaza ↕

J. A. Martinez

85'

G. Medel

87'

88'

ast. F. Ovelar · I. Jeraldino⚽

M. Palavecino

90'+1

Pre-match prediction

49.34%

22.08%

28.59%

Nublense ←

we assigned to the actual result (Nublense) 28.59% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

2.06

1.51

-0.55

Nublense

1.60

1.18

-0.42

U. Catolica dominated by xG (1.51 vs 1.18). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Colo Colo	27	61
2	Universidad de Chile	27	51
3	U. Catolica	27	49
4	Deportes Limache	27	40
5	Everton de Vina	27	40
6	Coquimbo Unido	26	38
7	Palestino	27	38
8	Concepción	27	38
9	D. La Serena	27	37
10	Nublense	27	35
11	Huachipato	26	33
12	O'Higgins	27	31
13	A. Italiano	27	30
14	Cobresal	27	27
15	Universidad de Concepcion	27	26
16	Union La Calera	27	24