Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 4
May 06, 2026 02:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Independiente del Valle, result UCV wins
J. Zapata
54'
J. Cuesta
(ast. A. Gonzalez)
67'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 63% win probability (draw 17%, UCV 18%). The final result was UCV 2–0 Independiente del Valle. In 1 previous meetings, UCV have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Independiente del Valle.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
22
4
Shots on target
7
0.53
Actual xG
2.34
7
Saves
2
32%
Possession
68%
1
Corners
9
13
Tackles
6
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
A. Granko
/ V. Rodriguez
46'
J. Bolivar
50'
⚽J. Zapata
54'
65'
E. Pata
/
M. Perello
⚽J. Cuesta
· ast. A. Gonzalez
67'
70'
J. Lerma
/
R. Briones
73'
L. Loor
J. Bolivar
/ Y. Murillo
80'
J. Cuesta
/ S. Sosa
80'
80'
J. Angulo
/
J. Viacava
80'
D. Reasco
/
A. Rodriguez
J. Zapata
/ R. Ramirez
87'
D. Carrillo
/ Y. Cumana
87'
87'
J. Angulo
Pre-match prediction
18.58%
UCV ←
17.7%
X
63.71%
Independiente
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (UCV)
18.58%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.15
0.53
-0.62
2.64
2.34
-0.3
Independiente del Valle dominated by xG (2.34 vs 0.53).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
G. Schiavone
G
27
Daniel Carrillo
87'
D
Daniel Carrillo
87'
D
19
A. Simarra
D
A. Simarra
D
4
W. Velásquez
D
2
K. Silva
D
6
F. Solé
M
30
A. González
1 👟
M
7
J. Cuesta
1 ⚽
80'
M
J. Cuesta
1 ⚽
80'
M
47
Alexander Granko
45'
M
Alexander Granko
45'
M
8
J. Zapata
1 ⚽
87'
M
11
Jovanny Bolívar
80'
F
Jovanny Bolívar
80'
F
Bench
21
C. Ortiz
F
16
D. De Sousa
F
14
Kendry Mendoza
M
Kendry Mendoza
M
28
M. Ruiz
D
3
Ruben Ramirez
7'
D
Ruben Ramirez
7'
D
10
S. Sosa
14'
F
17
V. Rodríguez
49'
M
24
Y. Cumaná
7'
D
9
Yeiber Murillo
14'
F
Yeiber Murillo
14'
F
1
Aldair Quintana
G
Aldair Quintana
G
19
L. Loor
D
L. Loor
D
23
J. Viacava
80'
D
J. Viacava
80'
D
14
M. Carabajal
D
M. Carabajal
D
13
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
D
Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
D
6
Jordy Alcivar
M
Jordy Alcivar
M
17
A. Rodríguez
80'
M
A. Rodríguez
80'
M
10
J. Sornoza
M
J. Sornoza
M
16
R. Briones
70'
M
R. Briones
70'
M
11
M. Perelló
65'
M
M. Perelló
65'
M
9
C. González
F
C. González
F
Bench
33
Andy René Velasco García
D
Andy René Velasco García
D
55
Darwin Guagua
M
Darwin Guagua
M
99
D. Reasco
14'
F
D. Reasco
14'
F
31
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
29'
F
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
29'
F
4
J. Espinoza
D
J. Espinoza
D
32
J. Méndez
M
J. Méndez
M
50
Juan Riquelme Angulo
14'
F
Juan Riquelme Angulo
14'
F
53
Justin Lerma
24'
M
Justin Lerma
24'
M
8
Y. Ochoa
M
Y. Ochoa
M
Best on the pitch
J. Cuesta
M · UCV
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 15 pass
G. Schiavone
G · UCV
7.60
· 38 pass
A. González
M · UCV
7.50
1 👟
1 shots
· 16 pass
J. Zapata
M · UCV
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
A. Simarra
D · UCV
7.20
· 13 pass
W. Velásquez
D · UCV
7.20
· 13 pass
UCV — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Schiavone | G | 94 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Carrillo | D | 87 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | — | — | — |
| A. Simarra | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| W. Velásquez | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | 3 | — | — |
| K. Silva | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 14% | — | — | — |
| F. Solé | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| A. González | M | 94 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 16 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Cuesta | M | 80 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 15 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Alexander Granko | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| J. Zapata | M | 87 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| Jovanny Bolívar | F | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 20 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| Ruben Ramirez | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| S. Sosa | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| V. Rodríguez | M | 49 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Y. Cumaná | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yeiber Murillo | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Independiente del Valle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldair Quintana | G | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 19% | — | — | — |
| L. Loor | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 64 | 52% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Viacava | D | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 68 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Carabajal | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 80 | 74% | — | — | — |
| Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla | D | 94 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 36 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Jordy Alcivar | M | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 57 | 50% | — | — | — |
| A. Rodríguez | M | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Sornoza | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 5 | 44 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Briones | M | 70 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| M. Perelló | M | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | 4 | 12 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| C. González | F | 94 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Reasco | F | 14 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez | F | 29 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Juan Riquelme Angulo | F | 14 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Justin Lerma | M | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
The final score was UCV 2–0 Independiente del Valle.
What did the model predict before UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
The model assigned 18% probability to a UCV win, 17% to a draw, and 63% to an Independiente del Valle win.