Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 4
May 06, 2026 02:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Independiente del Valle, result UCV wins
J. Zapata
54'
J. Cuesta
(ast. A. Gonzalez)
67'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 63% win probability (draw 17%, UCV 18%). The final result was UCV 2–0 Independiente del Valle. In 1 previous meetings, UCV have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Independiente del Valle.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
22
4
Shots on target
7
0.53
Actual xG
2.34
7
Saves
2
32%
Possession
68%
1
Corners
9
13
Tackles
6
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
A. Granko
/ V. Rodriguez
46'
J. Bolivar
50'
⚽J. Zapata
54'
65'
E. Pata
/
M. Perello
⚽J. Cuesta
· ast. A. Gonzalez
67'
70'
J. Lerma
/
R. Briones
73'
L. Loor
J. Bolivar
/ Y. Murillo
80'
J. Cuesta
/ S. Sosa
80'
80'
J. Angulo
/
J. Viacava
80'
D. Reasco
/
A. Rodriguez
J. Zapata
/ R. Ramirez
87'
D. Carrillo
/ Y. Cumana
87'
87'
J. Angulo
Pre-match prediction
18.58%
UCV ←
17.7%
X
63.71%
Independiente
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (UCV)
18.58%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.15
0.53
-0.62
2.64
2.34
-0.3
Independiente del Valle dominated by xG (2.34 vs 0.53).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
Giancarlo Schiavone
G
Giancarlo Schiavone
G
27
Daniel Carrillo
87'
D
Daniel Carrillo
87'
D
19
Alfonso Simarra
D
Alfonso Simarra
D
4
Williams Velásquez
D
Williams Velásquez
D
2
Kendrys Silva
D
Kendrys Silva
D
6
Francisco Solé
M
Francisco Solé
M
30
Alexander Gonzalez
1 👟
M
Alexander Gonzalez
1 👟
M
7
J. Cuesta
1 ⚽
80'
M
J. Cuesta
1 ⚽
80'
M
47
Alexander Granko
45'
M
Alexander Granko
45'
M
8
Juan Camilo Zapata
1 ⚽
87'
M
Juan Camilo Zapata
1 ⚽
87'
M
11
J. Bolívar
80'
F
J. Bolívar
80'
F
Bench
21
Charlis Ortíz
F
Charlis Ortíz
F
16
Daniel De Sousa
F
Daniel De Sousa
F
14
Kendry Mendoza
M
Kendry Mendoza
M
28
Maicol Ruiz
D
Maicol Ruiz
D
3
Ruben Ramirez
7'
D
Ruben Ramirez
7'
D
10
Samuel Sosa
14'
F
Samuel Sosa
14'
F
17
Vicente Rodríguez
49'
M
Vicente Rodríguez
49'
M
9
Yeiber Murillo
14'
F
Yeiber Murillo
14'
F
24
Yohan Cumana
7'
D
Yohan Cumana
7'
D
1
Aldair Quintana
G
Aldair Quintana
G
19
Layan Loor
D
Layan Loor
D
23
Juan Viacava
80'
D
Juan Viacava
80'
D
14
Mateo Carabajal
D
Mateo Carabajal
D
13
Daykol Romero
D
Daykol Romero
D
6
Jordy Alcivar
M
Jordy Alcivar
M
17
Arón Rodríguez
80'
M
Arón Rodríguez
80'
M
10
Junior Sornoza
M
Junior Sornoza
M
16
Ronald Briones
70'
M
Ronald Briones
70'
M
11
Matías Perello
65'
M
Matías Perello
65'
M
9
C. González
F
C. González
F
Bench
33
Andy Velasco
D
Andy Velasco
D
55
Darwin Guagua
M
Darwin Guagua
M
99
Djorkaeff Reasco
14'
F
Djorkaeff Reasco
14'
F
31
Emerson Pata
29'
F
Emerson Pata
29'
F
32
Jhegson Méndez
M
Jhegson Méndez
M
4
Jhon Espinoza
D
Jhon Espinoza
D
50
Juan Angulo
14'
F
Juan Angulo
14'
F
53
Justin Lerma
24'
M
Justin Lerma
24'
M
8
Youri Ochoa
M
Youri Ochoa
M
Best on the pitch
J. Cuesta
M · UCV
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 15 pass
Giancarlo Schiavone
G · UCV
7.60
· 38 pass
Alexander Gonzalez
M · UCV
7.50
1 👟
1 shots
· 16 pass
Juan Camilo Zapata
M · UCV
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
Alfonso Simarra
D · UCV
7.20
· 13 pass
Williams Velásquez
D · UCV
7.20
· 13 pass
UCV — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Schiavone | G | 94 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Carrillo | D | 87 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Alfonso Simarra | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| Williams Velásquez | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | 3 | — | — |
| Kendrys Silva | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Francisco Solé | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Alexander Gonzalez | M | 94 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 16 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Cuesta | M | 80 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 15 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Alexander Granko | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Juan Camilo Zapata | M | 87 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Bolívar | F | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 20 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| Ruben Ramirez | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Sosa | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Vicente Rodríguez | M | 49 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Yeiber Murillo | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yohan Cumana | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Independiente del Valle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldair Quintana | G | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Layan Loor | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 64 | 52% | — | 1 | — |
| Juan Viacava | D | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 68 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| Mateo Carabajal | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 80 | 74% | — | — | — |
| Daykol Romero | D | 94 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 36 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Jordy Alcivar | M | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 57 | 50% | — | — | — |
| Arón Rodríguez | M | 80 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Junior Sornoza | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 5 | 44 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Ronald Briones | M | 70 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Matías Perello | M | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | 4 | 12 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| C. González | F | 94 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Djorkaeff Reasco | F | 14 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Emerson Pata | F | 29 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Juan Angulo | F | 14 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Justin Lerma | M | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
The final score was UCV 2–0 Independiente del Valle.
What did the model predict before UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
The model assigned 18% probability to a UCV win, 17% to a draw, and 63% to an Independiente del Valle win.