Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 1
April 10, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction UCV
Juan Manuel Cuesta
30'
Yeiber Murillo
(ast. Francisco Solé)
88'
Francisco Solé
90'+6
(pen.)
61'
(ast. Néstor Giménez)
Lorenzo Melgarejo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave UCV a 61% win probability (draw 20%, Libertad Asuncion 18%). The final result was UCV 3–1 Libertad Asuncion.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
4
1.78
Actual xG
1.10
3
Saves
3
41%
Possession
59%
1
Corners
4
20
Tackles
7
4
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Juan Manuel Cuesta
5'
13'
Estiven Villalba
⚽Juan Manuel Cuesta
30'
Jovanny Bolívar
45'+3
61'
ast. Néstor Giménez ·
Lorenzo Melgarejo⚽
64'
Pedro Villalba
/
Marcelo Fernandez
Samuel Sosa
/ Alexander Granko
66'
68'
Pedro Villalba
77'
Federico Carrizo
/
Lucas Sanabria
77'
Gustavo Aguilar
/
Lorenzo Melgarejo
Kendrys Silva
79'
Juan Camilo Zapata
/ Yeiber Murillo
80'
84'
Alexis Fretes
/
Matías Espinoza
84'
Hugo Martínez
/
Álvaro Campuzano
Alexander Gonzalez
/ Vicente Rodríguez
87'
Juan Manuel Cuesta
/ Daniel De Sousa
87'
Jovanny Bolívar
/ Charlis Ortíz
87'
⚽Yeiber Murillo
· ast. Francisco Solé
88'
Alexander Granko
90'+2
⚽Francisco Solé
(pen.)
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
61.34%
UCV ←
20.51%
X
18.15%
Libertad
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (UCV)
61.34%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.46
1.78
-0.68
0.53
1.10
+0.57
UCV dominated by xG (1.78 vs 1.10).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
G. Schiavone
G
27
D. Carrillo
D
19
A. Simarra
D
5
D
2
Kendrys Silva
D
6
Francisco Solé
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
30
A. Gonzalez
87'
M
7
J. Cuesta
1 ⚽
87'
M
J. Cuesta
1 ⚽
87'
M
8
Juan Camilo Zapata
80'
M
10
Samuel Sosa
66'
M
11
J. Bolivar
87'
F
Bench
47
A. Granko
24'
F
57
C. Cermeno
M
21
C. Ortiz
10'
F
16
D. De Sousa
10'
F
14
K. Mendoza
M
28
M. Ruiz
D
3
R. Ramirez
D
17
V. Rodriguez
10'
M
4
W. Velasquez
D
9
Yeiber Murillo
1 ⚽
10'
F
12
Rodrigo Morínigo
G
Rodrigo Morínigo
G
4
N. Giménez
1 👟
D
N. Giménez
1 👟
D
5
Diego Viera
D
Diego Viera
D
31
D
34
Estiven Villalba
D
Estiven Villalba
D
6
Álvaro Campuzano
84'
M
Álvaro Campuzano
84'
M
17
Matías Espinoza
84'
M
26
M
21
Lucas Sanabria
77'
M
Lucas Sanabria
77'
M
28
Marcelo Fernandez
64'
M
Marcelo Fernandez
64'
M
10
L. Melgarejo
1 ⚽
77'
F
L. Melgarejo
1 ⚽
77'
F
Bench
14
A. Fretes
13'
D
A. Fretes
13'
D
27
Amin Molinas
M
Amin Molinas
M
8
F. Carrizo
13'
M
F. Carrizo
13'
M
11
Gustavo Aguilar
13'
F
Gustavo Aguilar
13'
F
2
Iván Ramírez
D
Iván Ramírez
D
23
Pedro Villalba
26'
M
Pedro Villalba
26'
M
Best on the pitch
Francisco Solé
M · UCV
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 56 pass
D · UCV
7.70
· 42 pass
Kendrys Silva
D · UCV
7.50
· 27 pass
Yeiber Murillo
F · UCV
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
J. Cuesta
M · UCV
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 27 pass
G. Schiavone
G · UCV
7.20
· 25 pass
UCV — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Schiavone | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 13% | — | — | — |
| D. Carrillo | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Simarra | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 20% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 42 | 36% | 3 | — | — | |
| Kendrys Silva | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 27 | 22% | 6 | 1 | — |
| Francisco Solé | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 56 | 47% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Gonzalez | M | 87 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 51 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Cuesta | M | 87 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 27 | 22% | — | 1 | — |
| Juan Camilo Zapata | M | 80 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Samuel Sosa | M | 66 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Bolivar | F | 87 | 6.70 | — | — | 4 | 15 | 8% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Granko | F | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| C. Ortiz | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| D. De Sousa | F | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| V. Rodriguez | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yeiber Murillo | F | 10 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Libertad Asuncion — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Morínigo | G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 26% | — | — | — |
| N. Giménez | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | 1 | — | 54 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| Diego Viera | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 79 | 77% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 81 | 72% | — | — | — | |
| Estiven Villalba | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 27% | — | 1 | — |
| Álvaro Campuzano | M | 84 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| Matías Espinoza | M | 84 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 24% | — | — | — |
| M | 90 | 5.20 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 15% | 1 | — | — | |
| Lucas Sanabria | M | 77 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Fernandez | M | 64 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| L. Melgarejo | F | 77 | 6.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 18 | 9% | — | — | — |
| A. Fretes | D | 13 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| F. Carrizo | M | 13 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Aguilar | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Villalba | M | 26 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of UCV vs Libertad Asuncion?
The final score was UCV 3–1 Libertad Asuncion.
What did the model predict before UCV vs Libertad Asuncion?
The model assigned 61% probability to a UCV win, 20% to a draw, and 18% to an Libertad Asuncion win.