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Model wrong — prediction Udinese, result Cremonese wins
9' J. Vardy
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Udinese a 53% win probability (draw 28%, Cremonese 18%). The final result was Udinese 0–1 Cremonese. In 1 previous meetings, Udinese have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Cremonese.

Match statistics
8
Total shots
6
2
Shots on target
4
0.31
Actual xG
0.49
3
Saves
2
63%
Possession
37%
5
Corners
5
5
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
9'
J. Vardy
27'
C. Kabasele / N. Bertola
46'
51'
Federico Bonazzoli
55'
Tommaso Barbieri
J. Arizala / J. Zemura
60'
60'
D. Okereke / F. Bonazzoli
60'
R. Floriani / T. Barbieri
66'
Hassane Kamara
67'
L. Miller / V. Bayo
71'
K. Davis / I. Gueye
71'
H. Kamara / A. Camara
79'
82'
J. Vandeputte / M. Thorsby
82'
M. Collocolo / Y. Maleh
88'
M. Djuric / J. Vardy
90'+1
Alberto Grassi
Pre-match prediction
53.17%
Udinese
28.32%
X
18.51%
Cremonese ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Cremonese) 18.51% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Udinese
1.45
0.31
-1.14
Cremonese
0.66
0.49
-0.17
xG dominance was balanced (0.31 – 0.49). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Lazio Lazio 4 10
2 AS Roma AS Roma 3 9
3 Inter Inter 3 9
4 AC Milan AC Milan 4 8
5 Como Como 3 7
6 Juventus Juventus 3 7
7 Frosinone Frosinone 4 7
8 Atalanta Atalanta 3 6
9 Cagliari Cagliari 3 6
10 Sassuolo Sassuolo 3 4
11 Udinese Udinese 3 4
12 Napoli Napoli 3 3
13 Torino Torino 3 3
14 Lecce Lecce 3 3
15 Fiorentina Fiorentina 4 3
16 Bologna Bologna 3 1
17 Parma Parma 3 1
18 Monza Monza 3 1
19 Genoa Genoa 4 1
20 Venezia Venezia 4 0
Lineups
Udinese Udinese 3-5-2
40 M. Okoye M. Okoye G 6.90
28 O. Solet O. Solet D 7.50
27 C. Kabasele C. Kabasele 45' D 6.00
31 T. Kristensen T. Kristensen D 7.30
11 H. Kamara H. Kamara 79' M 6.90
14 Arthur Atta Arthur Atta M 6.30
8 J. Karlström J. Karlström M 6.60
38 L. Miller L. Miller 71' M 6.70
20 J. Arizala J. Arizala 60' M 6.20
9 K. Davis K. Davis 71' F 6.60
18 A. Buksa A. Buksa F 6.20
Bench
29 Abdoulaye Camara Abdoulaye Camara 17' M 6.90
1 A. Nunziante A. Nunziante G
22 Branimir Mlačić Branimir Mlačić D
93 D. Padelli D. Padelli G
7 I. Gueye I. Gueye 25' F 6.90
24 J. Piotrowski J. Piotrowski M
33 J. Zemura J. Zemura 36' D 6.70
13 N. Bertola N. Bertola 51' D 6.90
6 Oier Zarraga Oier Zarraga M
90 R. Sava R. Sava G
15 V. Bayo V. Bayo 25' F 6.30
Cremonese Cremonese 3-5-2
1 E. Audero E. Audero G 7.20
5 S. Luperto S. Luperto D 6.90
15 M. Bianchetti M. Bianchetti D 6.90
24 Filippo Terracciano Filippo Terracciano D 6.90
3 Giuseppe Pezzella Giuseppe Pezzella M 6.60
29 Y. Maleh Y. Maleh 82' M 6.60
33 Alberto Grassi Alberto Grassi M 6.90
2 M. Thorsby M. Thorsby 82' M 6.90
4 Tommaso Barbieri Tommaso Barbieri 60' M 6.30
10 J. Vardy J. Vardy 1 ⚽ 88' F 7.30
90 F. Bonazzoli F. Bonazzoli 60' F 6.90
Bench
7 Alessio Zerbin Alessio Zerbin F
99 A. Sanabria A. Sanabria
77 D. Okereke D. Okereke 36' F 6.50
55 F. Folino F. Folino D
27 J. Vandeputte J. Vandeputte 14' M 6.30
69 Lapo Nava Lapo Nava G
16 Marco Silvestri Marco Silvestri G
96 M. Cassin M. Cassin G
18 M. Collocolo M. Collocolo 14' M 6.70
9 M. Đurić M. Đurić 8' F 6.50
30 M. Faye M. Faye D
32 M. Payero M. Payero M
22 Romano Floriani Mussolini Romano Floriani Mussolini 36' D 6.70
Best on the pitch
O. Solet
O. Solet
D · Udinese
7.50
3 shots · 100 pass
T. Kristensen
T. Kristensen
D · Udinese
7.30
· 92 pass
J. Vardy
J. Vardy
F · Cremonese
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 13 pass
E. Audero
E. Audero
G · Cremonese
7.20
· 40 pass
Alberto Grassi
Alberto Grassi
M · Cremonese
6.90
· 30 pass
M. Thorsby
M. Thorsby
M · Cremonese
6.90
· 34 pass
Udinese Udinese — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Okoye G 96 6.90 18 18%
O. Solet D 96 7.50 3 100 89% 3
C. Kabasele D 45 6.00 33 31%
T. Kristensen D 96 7.30 92 84%
H. Kamara M 79 6.90 44 35% 1
Arthur Atta M 96 6.30 1 50 41%
J. Karlström M 96 6.60 1 48 41%
L. Miller M 71 6.70 24 19%
J. Arizala M 60 6.20 21 18% 1
K. Davis F 71 6.60 1 14 13%
A. Buksa F 96 6.20 19 12%
Abdoulaye Camara M 17 6.90 9 9%
I. Gueye F 25 6.90 1 4 2% 1
J. Zemura D 36 6.70 12 11%
N. Bertola D 51 6.90 35 29%
V. Bayo F 25 6.30 1 5 4%
Cremonese Cremonese — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
E. Audero G 96 7.20 40 23%
S. Luperto D 96 6.90 1 32 29% 1
M. Bianchetti D 96 6.90 27 21%
Filippo Terracciano D 96 6.90 34 31% 2
Giuseppe Pezzella M 96 6.60 1 25 16% 1
Y. Maleh M 82 6.60 2 20 15% 2
Alberto Grassi M 96 6.90 30 25% 1 1
M. Thorsby M 82 6.90 34 22%
Tommaso Barbieri M 60 6.30 13 5% 1
J. Vardy F 88 7.30 1 1 13 8% 1
F. Bonazzoli F 60 6.90 1 18 11% 3 1
D. Okereke F 36 6.50 4 4%
J. Vandeputte M 14 6.30 6 4%
M. Collocolo M 14 6.70 3 2%
M. Đurić F 8 6.50 2
Romano Floriani Mussolini D 36 6.70 7 1%
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Udinese vs Cremonese?
The final score was Udinese 0–1 Cremonese.
What did the model predict before Udinese vs Cremonese?
The model assigned 53% probability to a Udinese win, 28% to a draw, and 18% to an Cremonese win.