✗Model wrong — prediction Udinese, result Parma wins
51'
(ast. G. Strefezza)
N. Elphege
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Udinese a 51% win probability (draw 31%, Parma 16%). The final result was Udinese 0–1 Parma. In 2 previous meetings, Udinese have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Parma.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
1
1.13
Actual xG
1.23
0
Saves
3
57%
Possession
43%
10
Corners
5
10
Tackles
17
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
46'
N. Elphege
/
M. Pellegrino
51'
ast. G. Strefezza ·
N. Elphege⚽
J. Piotrowski
/ I. Gueye
64'
H. Kamara
/ J. Arizala
64'
66'
C. Ordonez
/
A. Bernabe
66'
J. Ondrejka
/
G. Strefezza
N. Zaniolo
70'
72'
N. Estevez
/
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
K. Ehizibue
/ O. Zarraga
73'
J. Ekkelenkamp
/ A. Buksa
73'
75'
S. Britschgi
/
A. Ndiaye
T. Kristensen
/ B. Mlacic
81'
J. Karlstrom
84'
Pre-match prediction
51.71%
Udinese
31.78%
X
16.51%
Parma ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Parma)
16.51%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.15
1.13
-0.02
0.55
1.23
+0.68
xG dominance was balanced (1.13 – 1.23).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
40
G
28
D
27
C. Kabasele
D
C. Kabasele
D
31
T. Kristensen
81'
D
T. Kristensen
81'
D
11
H. Kamara
64'
M
H. Kamara
64'
M
24
J. Piotrowski
64'
M
J. Piotrowski
64'
M
8
J. Karlström
M
J. Karlström
M
19
K. Ehizibue
73'
M
K. Ehizibue
73'
M
10
N. Zaniolo
F
N. Zaniolo
F
14
Arthur Atta
F
Arthur Atta
F
32
J. Ekkelenkamp
73'
F
J. Ekkelenkamp
73'
F
Bench
18
A. Buksa
24'
F
A. Buksa
24'
F
22
Branimir Mlačić
16'
D
Branimir Mlačić
16'
D
7
Idrissa Gueye
33'
F
Idrissa Gueye
33'
F
38
L. Miller
M
L. Miller
M
6
Oier Zarraga
24'
M
Oier Zarraga
24'
M
31
Z. Suzuki
G
Z. Suzuki
G
3
A. N'Diaye
75'
D
A. N'Diaye
75'
D
37
D
39
A. Circati
D
A. Circati
D
14
E. Valeri
M
E. Valeri
M
41
H. Nicolussi
72'
M
H. Nicolussi
72'
M
16
M. Keita
M
M. Keita
M
10
Adrián Bernabé
66'
M
Adrián Bernabé
66'
M
15
E. Del Prato
M
E. Del Prato
M
7
Gabriel Strefezza
1 👟
66'
F
Gabriel Strefezza
1 👟
66'
F
9
Mateo Pellegrino
45'
F
Mateo Pellegrino
45'
F
Bench
29
F. Carboni
D
F. Carboni
D
23
N. Elphege
1 ⚽
52'
F
N. Elphege
1 ⚽
52'
F
27
S. Britschgi
22'
D
S. Britschgi
22'
D
Best on the pitch
Gabriel Strefezza
F · Parma
8.00
1 👟
1 shots
· 27 pass
D · Udinese
7.90
· 77 pass
Z. Suzuki
G · Parma
7.70
· 36 pass
N. Elphege
F · Parma
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 7 pass
M. Keita
M · Parma
7.30
· 40 pass
E. Valeri
M · Parma
7.20
· 24 pass
Udinese — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — | |
| D | 97 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 77 | 71% | 2 | — | — | |
| C. Kabasele | D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Kristensen | D | 81 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Kamara | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Piotrowski | M | 64 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Karlström | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 42% | 1 | 1 | — |
| K. Ehizibue | M | 73 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Zaniolo | F | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | 4 | 36 | 29% | — | 1 | — |
| Arthur Atta | F | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 47% | — | — | — |
| J. Ekkelenkamp | F | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Buksa | F | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Branimir Mlačić | D | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Idrissa Gueye | F | 33 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Oier Zarraga | M | 24 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
Parma — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Suzuki | G | 97 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 23% | — | — | — |
| A. N'Diaye | D | 75 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 36% | — | — | — | |
| A. Circati | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Valeri | M | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| H. Nicolussi | M | 72 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 49 | 43% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Keita | M | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 40 | 37% | 2 | — | — |
| Adrián Bernabé | M | 66 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 26 | 24% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Del Prato | M | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Strefezza | F | 66 | 8.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 27 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| Mateo Pellegrino | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| N. Elphege | F | 52 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| S. Britschgi | D | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Udinese vs Parma?
The final score was Udinese 0–1 Parma.
What did the model predict before Udinese vs Parma?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Udinese win, 31% to a draw, and 16% to an Parma win.