Uganda - Botswana
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 11, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
55.76%
Win
Uganda
26.99%
Draw
17.25%
Win
Botswana
1.42
0.54
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Uganda
55.76%
Probability
60.0%
1X2 accuracy · 5 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(18.89%)
1X2 Result
1
56%
X
27%
2
17%
Double Chance
1X
83%
X2
44%
12
73%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
82%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
58%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Uganda a 55% win probability, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Botswana. Expected goals are 1.4 for Uganda and 0.5 for Botswana (total 2.0), with a 81% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 18.89% probability.
Season Stats
1W
1D
0L
0W
2D
0L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
2.0
0.5
Conceded
2.0
2.0
Shots OT
3.0
3.5
Corners
3.0
45%
Poss.
31%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
100%
50%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
1W
0D
0L
· at home
0W
2D
0L
· away
1.0
gls/g
2.0
0.0
Conceded
2.0
100%
Win %
0%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
0%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
100%
0%
O 3.5
100%
0%
BTTS
100%
100%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Uganda
Botswana →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 1 | 20.0% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 3 | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 4 | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Uganda
Attack
29
Defence
75
Form
59
Botswana
Attack
31
Defence
40
Form
32
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
What's at stake · Group H
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #2 |
| → Uganda | #1 | #2 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Botswana | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Uganda vs Botswana?
The model gives Uganda a 55% win probability, 26% for a draw, and 17% for an Botswana win.
How many goals are expected in Uganda vs Botswana?
Expected goals: Uganda 1.4, Botswana 0.5 (total 2.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 81%.
What is the most likely score in Uganda vs Botswana?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 18.89%.