Uganda - Libya
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 29, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.98%
Win
Uganda
32.19%
Draw
34.83%
Win
Libya
1.22
1.38
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(13.22%)
1X2 Result
1
33%
X
32%
2
35%
Double Chance
1X
65%
X2
67%
12
68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
52%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Libya a 34% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Uganda. Expected goals are 1.2 for Uganda and 1.4 for Libya (total 2.6), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.22% probability.
Score Matrix
↕ Uganda
Libya →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — |
Playing profile
Uganda
Attack
25
Defence
42
Form
33
Libya
Attack
25
Defence
75
Form
46
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Uganda vs Libya?
The model gives Uganda a 32% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 34% for an Libya win.
How many goals are expected in Uganda vs Libya?
Expected goals: Uganda 1.2, Libya 1.4 (total 2.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Uganda vs Libya?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.22%.