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Ukraine - Northern Ireland

UEFA Nations League October 02, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Ukraine
#2 · 0 pts
vs
Northern Ireland
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
74.58%
Win
Ukraine
13.72%
Draw
11.69%
Win
Northern Ireland
2.91
Expected xG
0.97
Most likely outcome
Ukraine
74.58%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–0 (8.81%)
1X2 Result
1 75%
X 14%
2 12%
Double Chance
1X 88%
X2 25%
12 86%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 83%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Ukraine a 74% win probability, against 13% for a draw and 11% for Northern Ireland. Expected goals are 2.9 for Ukraine and 1.0 for Northern Ireland (total 3.9), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–0 at 8.81% probability.

Season Stats

Ukraine
3W 2D 3L
Northern Ireland
3W 2D 1L
Averages per game
1.4
Goals
1.8
1.5
Conceded
0.5
4.0
Shots OT
4.7
4.3
Corners
6.7
47%
Poss.
50%
Percentages
88%
O 1.5
67%
63%
O 2.5
33%
75%
BTTS
17%
13%
Clean Sht
67%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
29%
O 3.5
54%
BTTS
Ukraine
2W 1D 1L · at home
Northern Ireland
0W 2D 1L · away
1.5
gls/g
0.7
1.0
Conceded
1.0
50%
Win %
0%
75%
Win or Draw
67%
75%
O 1.5
33%
50%
O 2.5
33%
25%
O 3.5
33%
75%
BTTS
33%
25%
Clean Sht
33%
0%
Failed to Score
67%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Ukraine Northern Ireland →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% —
1 6.0% 5.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% —
2 8.7% 8.5% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 8.5% 8.2% 4.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
4 6.1% 6.0% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% —
5 3.6% 3.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% —

Recent form

Ukraine Ukraine
L Belgium 3–0
W Belgium 3–1
W Albania 1–2
D Georgia 1–1
D Czechia 1–1
Northern Ireland Northern Ireland
D Luxembourg 2–2
W Belarus 2–0
W Bulgaria 5–0
D Belarus 0–0
L Bulgaria 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Ukraine Ukraine
Attack
36
Defence
68
Form
46
Northern Ireland Northern Ireland
Attack
25
Defence
59
Form
23
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Hungary Hungary 0 0
2 Ukraine Ukraine 0 0
3 Georgia Georgia 0 0
4 Northern Ireland Northern Ireland 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Ukraine Northern Ireland
Current #2 #4
→ Ukraine #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Northern Ireland #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
The model gives Ukraine a 74% win probability, 13% for a draw, and 11% for an Northern Ireland win.
How many goals are expected in Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
Expected goals: Ukraine 2.9, Northern Ireland 1.0 (total 3.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
2–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.81%.